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Lautenberg's legacy for New Jersey rivals Chris Christie and Cory Booker Lautenberg's legacy for New Jersey rivals Chris Christie and Cory Booker
(4 months later)
The death of New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg has upended the political landscape in the Garden State. New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie now must select someone to fill the vacancy in the upcoming days. New Jersey voters will then vote on a replacement in an election at some point. When that election is could have major political ramifications for well-known political figures Christie and Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Why?The death of New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg has upended the political landscape in the Garden State. New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie now must select someone to fill the vacancy in the upcoming days. New Jersey voters will then vote on a replacement in an election at some point. When that election is could have major political ramifications for well-known political figures Christie and Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Why?
For Christie, 2013 was supposed to be the year of his re-election. Christie had benefitted greatly from voters' positive views of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. No Democratic heavyweights were willing to run against him. Only the politically weak New Jersey state Senator Barbara Buono, who Christie leads by 30+ points, put her hat into the ring. Christie was also going to benefit from the fact that no regularly scheduled federal elections were to take place this year in New Jersey. The off-year electorate is typically older than one would see in a presidential election year and would pad Christie's margin by about 2-4pt in the event that the polls tightened.For Christie, 2013 was supposed to be the year of his re-election. Christie had benefitted greatly from voters' positive views of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. No Democratic heavyweights were willing to run against him. Only the politically weak New Jersey state Senator Barbara Buono, who Christie leads by 30+ points, put her hat into the ring. Christie was also going to benefit from the fact that no regularly scheduled federal elections were to take place this year in New Jersey. The off-year electorate is typically older than one would see in a presidential election year and would pad Christie's margin by about 2-4pt in the event that the polls tightened.
For Booker, the path from mayoralty to United States Senate was fairly clear. He was going to raise a ton of money, beat off any competition in a Democratic primary in which he already led by 40pt, and crush any Republican competition in a state that hasn't elected a Republican senator in 40 years. It wouldn't matter that Booker inelegantly pushed Lautenberg out of running for re-election 2014. It wouldn't matter that he left the Democratic party without a politically strong standard-bearer in 2013 and may have cost his party control of the state legislature. The public loves Cory Booker.For Booker, the path from mayoralty to United States Senate was fairly clear. He was going to raise a ton of money, beat off any competition in a Democratic primary in which he already led by 40pt, and crush any Republican competition in a state that hasn't elected a Republican senator in 40 years. It wouldn't matter that Booker inelegantly pushed Lautenberg out of running for re-election 2014. It wouldn't matter that he left the Democratic party without a politically strong standard-bearer in 2013 and may have cost his party control of the state legislature. The public loves Cory Booker.
Now, neither Christie nor Booker are in a comfortable position. Christie has to select a replacement. He'll probably pick a Republican, but what type of Republican? Will he pick an elder statesmen like former Governor Tom Kean who wouldn't run for re-election? In doing so, he'll give away any advantage that an incumbent might have and almost certainly needs to win a Senate seat in this very Democratic state. Yet, a more moderate selection won't help him among the Republican base if he decides to run for president in 2016. Will he make a more polarizing pick like State Senator Tom Kean Jr or Lt Governor Kim Guadagno, who almost certainly would run for re-election? Doing so might alienate Christie from the heavily Democratic electorate in New Jersey.Now, neither Christie nor Booker are in a comfortable position. Christie has to select a replacement. He'll probably pick a Republican, but what type of Republican? Will he pick an elder statesmen like former Governor Tom Kean who wouldn't run for re-election? In doing so, he'll give away any advantage that an incumbent might have and almost certainly needs to win a Senate seat in this very Democratic state. Yet, a more moderate selection won't help him among the Republican base if he decides to run for president in 2016. Will he make a more polarizing pick like State Senator Tom Kean Jr or Lt Governor Kim Guadagno, who almost certainly would run for re-election? Doing so might alienate Christie from the heavily Democratic electorate in New Jersey.
The greatest question for Christie though is when to hold the election. Without confusing anyone too much detail here, suffice to say that conflicting state statutes mandate that the election needs to be held in November 2013 or November 2014. Which statute is right is likely to be determined in court. Most state Democrats no doubt want November 2013. Such a close election gives little time for any Republican senatorial candidate to build the necessary statewide name recognition to win. Further, if the Democrats somehow lose in 2013, they get another shot in the regularly scheduled 2014 election. More important, though, is the impact an earlier election will have on the gubernatorial race.The greatest question for Christie though is when to hold the election. Without confusing anyone too much detail here, suffice to say that conflicting state statutes mandate that the election needs to be held in November 2013 or November 2014. Which statute is right is likely to be determined in court. Most state Democrats no doubt want November 2013. Such a close election gives little time for any Republican senatorial candidate to build the necessary statewide name recognition to win. Further, if the Democrats somehow lose in 2013, they get another shot in the regularly scheduled 2014 election. More important, though, is the impact an earlier election will have on the gubernatorial race.
A Senate election in 2013 could help to nationalize the gubernatorial election taking place on the same day. Christie leads the gubernatorial race by 30pt because he takes 30% of the Democratic vote and 65% of the independent vote that split evenly between Obama and Romney in 2012. The last thing Christie needs is for these voters to have a reminder on the ballot that he's a member of the Republican party that is not well liked in New Jersey. In addition, Christie doesn't want Democratic voters to come out as strongly as they do in a presidential election year atmosphere, as they might if Booker is the Democratic nominee. Christie doesn't need to take chances given his lead has already been cut from 40+ to 30+ pt; and most agree that it's likely to be cut further.A Senate election in 2013 could help to nationalize the gubernatorial election taking place on the same day. Christie leads the gubernatorial race by 30pt because he takes 30% of the Democratic vote and 65% of the independent vote that split evenly between Obama and Romney in 2012. The last thing Christie needs is for these voters to have a reminder on the ballot that he's a member of the Republican party that is not well liked in New Jersey. In addition, Christie doesn't want Democratic voters to come out as strongly as they do in a presidential election year atmosphere, as they might if Booker is the Democratic nominee. Christie doesn't need to take chances given his lead has already been cut from 40+ to 30+ pt; and most agree that it's likely to be cut further.
Of course, Christie probably doesn't want to end up with a prolonged court battle over the date of an election. The mere action of going to court to fight with Democrats over the date of the election is going to put Christie in the press for being a Republican. He might think that his 30+ pt lead is wide enough, and the only thing that could screw it up is a publicized battle with state Democrats. Not choosing November 2014, however, will definitely perturb national Republicans who know that a 2014 election is the only chance they have to win the seat.Of course, Christie probably doesn't want to end up with a prolonged court battle over the date of an election. The mere action of going to court to fight with Democrats over the date of the election is going to put Christie in the press for being a Republican. He might think that his 30+ pt lead is wide enough, and the only thing that could screw it up is a publicized battle with state Democrats. Not choosing November 2014, however, will definitely perturb national Republicans who know that a 2014 election is the only chance they have to win the seat.
If the picture is murky for Christie, it's pretty clear for Booker. He also wants 2014. How could it be that Christie and Booker want the same thing? If the election is held in 2013, the state Democratic party picks the Democratic candidate. If the election is held in 2014, the Democratic nominee will be selected in a primary process. While there is the smart thought that the state Democratic party wouldn't dare pass over the popular Booker, who polls significantly better in a primary and general election than other Democrats, it's difficult to predict the actions of a few people.If the picture is murky for Christie, it's pretty clear for Booker. He also wants 2014. How could it be that Christie and Booker want the same thing? If the election is held in 2013, the state Democratic party picks the Democratic candidate. If the election is held in 2014, the Democratic nominee will be selected in a primary process. While there is the smart thought that the state Democratic party wouldn't dare pass over the popular Booker, who polls significantly better in a primary and general election than other Democrats, it's difficult to predict the actions of a few people.
State Democrats may dislike Booker's prior actions so much that they are willing to pass him over. They could make the following argument: Booker may lead his opponents by 40pt in a primary match-up, yet he's only at 50% in a hypothetical primary contest. You could say that half of New Jersey Democrats prefer someone else. They also know that any Democrat selected is likely to win in 2013, and a close election may, if anything, boost turnout that could help Buono in the gubernatorial race.State Democrats may dislike Booker's prior actions so much that they are willing to pass him over. They could make the following argument: Booker may lead his opponents by 40pt in a primary match-up, yet he's only at 50% in a hypothetical primary contest. You could say that half of New Jersey Democrats prefer someone else. They also know that any Democrat selected is likely to win in 2013, and a close election may, if anything, boost turnout that could help Buono in the gubernatorial race.
The fact is that Booker is sporting a +70 favorable rating among New Jersey Democrats. Yes, a 2014 election could give a Republican incumbent a slightly greater chance at defeating Booker, but that's unlikely to make much of a difference given Booker is ahead by 20+ pt against all potential Republican candidates.The fact is that Booker is sporting a +70 favorable rating among New Jersey Democrats. Yes, a 2014 election could give a Republican incumbent a slightly greater chance at defeating Booker, but that's unlikely to make much of a difference given Booker is ahead by 20+ pt against all potential Republican candidates.
Whether New Jersey voters select a United States senator in November 2013 or 2014 is unknown. My guess is 2014 will be the date because that's the date Christie's probably going to select. The court is more likely to confirm than overturn the decision of the head of the state, especially given that a recent clarifier by that State Office of Legislative Services says 2014 is the proper date. That's good news for Booker and Christie, who will say that 2014 is what state law tells him to do. I'd still bet on both to win in 2013, if the Senate election is this year.Whether New Jersey voters select a United States senator in November 2013 or 2014 is unknown. My guess is 2014 will be the date because that's the date Christie's probably going to select. The court is more likely to confirm than overturn the decision of the head of the state, especially given that a recent clarifier by that State Office of Legislative Services says 2014 is the proper date. That's good news for Booker and Christie, who will say that 2014 is what state law tells him to do. I'd still bet on both to win in 2013, if the Senate election is this year.
Frank Lautenberg's death, however, has definitely added a wrinkle to both Chris Christie and Cory Booker's political planning.Frank Lautenberg's death, however, has definitely added a wrinkle to both Chris Christie and Cory Booker's political planning.
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