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| Syria war becoming 'Balkanised' as Hezbollah moves in on key town | Syria war becoming 'Balkanised' as Hezbollah moves in on key town |
| (4 months later) | |
| Hezbollah troops have edged closer to controlling the Syrian town of Qusair in a battle seen across a deeply polarised region as one of the defining phases of Syria's civil war. | Hezbollah troops have edged closer to controlling the Syrian town of Qusair in a battle seen across a deeply polarised region as one of the defining phases of Syria's civil war. |
| The advances of the Lebanese Shia militia have been met with desperate attempts by rebel groups across Syria and in Lebanon to reinforce their besieged colleagues, almost all of them Sunni Muslims. In the process, the civil war is rapidly transforming into a proxy conflict whose battle lines are manned by members of opposing sects, vowing to fight each other to the end. | The advances of the Lebanese Shia militia have been met with desperate attempts by rebel groups across Syria and in Lebanon to reinforce their besieged colleagues, almost all of them Sunni Muslims. In the process, the civil war is rapidly transforming into a proxy conflict whose battle lines are manned by members of opposing sects, vowing to fight each other to the end. |
| At least 2,000 Hezbollah members are believed to have travelled to Qusair in the past three weeks to lead what has been hailed by both sides as a vital battle for the strategically significant town, roughly halfway between Damascus and Syria's third city, Homs. | At least 2,000 Hezbollah members are believed to have travelled to Qusair in the past three weeks to lead what has been hailed by both sides as a vital battle for the strategically significant town, roughly halfway between Damascus and Syria's third city, Homs. |
| The effect of the deployment – unprecedented except in 2006 during a month-long clash with its traditional foe, Israel – is evident throughout south Beirut and the towns of villages that make up the Shia heartland in the south of the country and in the Bekka valley. | The effect of the deployment – unprecedented except in 2006 during a month-long clash with its traditional foe, Israel – is evident throughout south Beirut and the towns of villages that make up the Shia heartland in the south of the country and in the Bekka valley. |
| "Everyone I know has gone there, said a 20-year-old member of one such family in north Lebanon. "Everyone already hates us, so we may as well fight them there, instead of here." | "Everyone I know has gone there, said a 20-year-old member of one such family in north Lebanon. "Everyone already hates us, so we may as well fight them there, instead of here." |
| His sentiments echo widely held views amongst Lebanese Shias that Hezbollah is reluctantly fighting a reactionary war, rather than having launched a pre-emptive invasion. Lebanese leaders – who bow to the group in the face of its political and military power, which heavily outguns Lebanon's own military – have been reluctant to address Hezbollah's role in Syria, one of the biggest moves made by the group in its 30-year existence. | His sentiments echo widely held views amongst Lebanese Shias that Hezbollah is reluctantly fighting a reactionary war, rather than having launched a pre-emptive invasion. Lebanese leaders – who bow to the group in the face of its political and military power, which heavily outguns Lebanon's own military – have been reluctant to address Hezbollah's role in Syria, one of the biggest moves made by the group in its 30-year existence. |
| However, President Michel Suleiman on Thursday delivered a veiled rebuke to the militia's leader: "I wish Hezbollah chief Nasrallah would not involve the resistance in Syria's war," he said. "It is the resistance of Lebanon and not of Syria. I hope Nasrallah abides by this." | However, President Michel Suleiman on Thursday delivered a veiled rebuke to the militia's leader: "I wish Hezbollah chief Nasrallah would not involve the resistance in Syria's war," he said. "It is the resistance of Lebanon and not of Syria. I hope Nasrallah abides by this." |
| The chances of that happening appear slim. Hezbollah supporters and the Syrian leadership appear to believe they are on the front foot in Syria after regime forces and opposition groups had both been able to make meaningful battlefield gains over the past year. | The chances of that happening appear slim. Hezbollah supporters and the Syrian leadership appear to believe they are on the front foot in Syria after regime forces and opposition groups had both been able to make meaningful battlefield gains over the past year. |
| The US also weighed in with an unusually strong statement earlier on Thursday. "The United States, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist organisation, has denounced its involvement in Syria and demanded [on] Wednesday that it withdraw," said state department spokeswoman Jennifer Psak. ""This is an unacceptable and extremely dangerous escalation. We demand that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately". | The US also weighed in with an unusually strong statement earlier on Thursday. "The United States, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist organisation, has denounced its involvement in Syria and demanded [on] Wednesday that it withdraw," said state department spokeswoman Jennifer Psak. ""This is an unacceptable and extremely dangerous escalation. We demand that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately". |
| The statement does not appear to mark a shift in the position for the US, which has been deeply reluctant to get involved in a sectarian conflict in the Middle East 10 years after the Iraq invasion. However, it does flag an increasing recognition of how rapidly the stakes are rising across the region as the Syrian war rumbles well into its third year. | The statement does not appear to mark a shift in the position for the US, which has been deeply reluctant to get involved in a sectarian conflict in the Middle East 10 years after the Iraq invasion. However, it does flag an increasing recognition of how rapidly the stakes are rising across the region as the Syrian war rumbles well into its third year. |
| Western officials in Beirut are now openly discussing the potential partition of Syria, a development that would inevitably drag in Lebanon and Iraq, at least. While not predicting such an outcome, a familiar refrain among diplomats is that two years of failed diplomacy and increasing brutality do not auger well for a negotiated settlement anytime soon. | Western officials in Beirut are now openly discussing the potential partition of Syria, a development that would inevitably drag in Lebanon and Iraq, at least. While not predicting such an outcome, a familiar refrain among diplomats is that two years of failed diplomacy and increasing brutality do not auger well for a negotiated settlement anytime soon. |
| Instead, some international officials, as well as two of Lebanon's feudal lords who play prominent roles in the body politic, say they fear the 70-year old state may become Balkanised along ethnic sectarian lines – a nightmare scenario for its four million residents and the more than one million Syrian refuges who have fled here. | Instead, some international officials, as well as two of Lebanon's feudal lords who play prominent roles in the body politic, say they fear the 70-year old state may become Balkanised along ethnic sectarian lines – a nightmare scenario for its four million residents and the more than one million Syrian refuges who have fled here. |
| In Qusair, where opposition groups are hunkered down for the 20th day of defending the town, one rebel contacted via Skype said diplomacy was no longer the way to end the war. | In Qusair, where opposition groups are hunkered down for the 20th day of defending the town, one rebel contacted via Skype said diplomacy was no longer the way to end the war. |
| "How can people in our name go to Geneva, while a merciless enemy fighting on behalf of Iran holds a sword to our necks?" he said, with the sound of shellfire in the background. | "How can people in our name go to Geneva, while a merciless enemy fighting on behalf of Iran holds a sword to our necks?" he said, with the sound of shellfire in the background. |
| "This is a fight that we must continue, no matter the cost." | "This is a fight that we must continue, no matter the cost." |
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