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| Obama's cautious approach to Syrian intervention sparks growing concern | Obama's cautious approach to Syrian intervention sparks growing concern |
| (4 months later) | |
| Foreign policy has long been where second-term US presidents turn when they run out of political clout back home. But for Barack Obama, accusations of drift and inaction on the domestic front are only compounded by his lack of progress internationally, particularly when it comes to the biggest challenge of all: preventing war in Syria from fatally destabilising the Middle East. | Foreign policy has long been where second-term US presidents turn when they run out of political clout back home. But for Barack Obama, accusations of drift and inaction on the domestic front are only compounded by his lack of progress internationally, particularly when it comes to the biggest challenge of all: preventing war in Syria from fatally destabilising the Middle East. |
| For months now, the White House has sought to tread a cautious line over Syria's bitter civil war – resisting pressure from Europe and Israel to intervene militarily over alleged chemical weapons use by the Syrian government and pushing instead for a negotiated departure for President Assad. | For months now, the White House has sought to tread a cautious line over Syria's bitter civil war – resisting pressure from Europe and Israel to intervene militarily over alleged chemical weapons use by the Syrian government and pushing instead for a negotiated departure for President Assad. |
| Given the recent US track record on regime change and alleged weapons of mass destruction, many international observers are no doubt relieved it has so far opted to take a back seat this time. | Given the recent US track record on regime change and alleged weapons of mass destruction, many international observers are no doubt relieved it has so far opted to take a back seat this time. |
| But as the continued slaughter in Syria begins to threaten peace across the region, a growing question in Washington and other Western capitals is whether Obama's caution reflects a prudent understanding of the pitfalls of intervention or a failure to get on top of events? | But as the continued slaughter in Syria begins to threaten peace across the region, a growing question in Washington and other Western capitals is whether Obama's caution reflects a prudent understanding of the pitfalls of intervention or a failure to get on top of events? |
| Criticism from Republican hawks such as John McCain is to be expected, but even some of the administration's closest advisers are now wondering aloud whether the White House needs a plan B. | Criticism from Republican hawks such as John McCain is to be expected, but even some of the administration's closest advisers are now wondering aloud whether the White House needs a plan B. |
| Fred Hof, who was Hillary Clinton's special representative on Syria until last September, warns that relying exclusively on open-ended peace talks risks preventing the west from acting more directly. | Fred Hof, who was Hillary Clinton's special representative on Syria until last September, warns that relying exclusively on open-ended peace talks risks preventing the west from acting more directly. |
| "For a long time after Vietnam our government was paralysed with doubt; we are seeing that process again in the wake of the catastrophic war in Iraq," ambassador Hof told a conference at the United States Institute of Peace on Wednesday. "We have a government that believes that whatever we do it can only make things worse. What this ignores is how bad things are now." | "For a long time after Vietnam our government was paralysed with doubt; we are seeing that process again in the wake of the catastrophic war in Iraq," ambassador Hof told a conference at the United States Institute of Peace on Wednesday. "We have a government that believes that whatever we do it can only make things worse. What this ignores is how bad things are now." |
| Part of the problem, argues Hof, is that other powers such as Russia, Iran and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are much more determined to prop up Assad than the West is to support the rebels. "This is a war that Iran and Hezbollah have decided not to lose," he says. "We are not yet seeing that level of resolve on behalf of the US administration." | Part of the problem, argues Hof, is that other powers such as Russia, Iran and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are much more determined to prop up Assad than the West is to support the rebels. "This is a war that Iran and Hezbollah have decided not to lose," he says. "We are not yet seeing that level of resolve on behalf of the US administration." |
| Nevertheless, there remains a great deal of sympathy for the White House's predicament, not least because few of Washington's foreign policy experts know what else he should do. | Nevertheless, there remains a great deal of sympathy for the White House's predicament, not least because few of Washington's foreign policy experts know what else he should do. |
| Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies is gloomy about what happens next but reluctant to level criticism at the White House. | Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies is gloomy about what happens next but reluctant to level criticism at the White House. |
| "Everyone wants the US to do more of something," Cordesman told the Guardian. "More of what is a much harder question to answer." | "Everyone wants the US to do more of something," Cordesman told the Guardian. "More of what is a much harder question to answer." |
| He argues that prospects for meaningful talks in Geneva were always limited and the Syrian conflict is fast spiralling into a clash between Sunni and Shia across the Arab world, rather than just a disagreement between Russia and the West. | He argues that prospects for meaningful talks in Geneva were always limited and the Syrian conflict is fast spiralling into a clash between Sunni and Shia across the Arab world, rather than just a disagreement between Russia and the West. |
| "The prospects for peace were always negligible and the chances of this escalating are significant," adds Cordesman, who was once an adviser to Senator McCain. | "The prospects for peace were always negligible and the chances of this escalating are significant," adds Cordesman, who was once an adviser to Senator McCain. |
| Those directly involved in previous Middle East interventions say that proposed military action in Syria such as imposing a no-fly zone would be much harder than in Libya and risked embroiling the US in an Iraq-style quagmire. | Those directly involved in previous Middle East interventions say that proposed military action in Syria such as imposing a no-fly zone would be much harder than in Libya and risked embroiling the US in an Iraq-style quagmire. |
| Retired lieutenant-general David Deptula organised the US no-fly zone in northern Iraq and estimates it would take at least 150-250 aircraft to enforce a similar plan in Syria. | Retired lieutenant-general David Deptula organised the US no-fly zone in northern Iraq and estimates it would take at least 150-250 aircraft to enforce a similar plan in Syria. |
| "It's not cheap, and it's not risk-free," he says. "It doesn't just consist of some fighters out looking for someone to shoot down. This is an air occupation that usurps sovereignty of state." | "It's not cheap, and it's not risk-free," he says. "It doesn't just consist of some fighters out looking for someone to shoot down. This is an air occupation that usurps sovereignty of state." |
| Solid air defences in Syria would require aggressive suppression and Russian threats to arm Damascus with even more advanced new S300 missiles would be a "game-changer", argues Deptula. | Solid air defences in Syria would require aggressive suppression and Russian threats to arm Damascus with even more advanced new S300 missiles would be a "game-changer", argues Deptula. |
| "We have to ask ourselves what are national security interests at stake that are worth such expenditure of US blood and treasure," he adds. "Because there is no doubt we are talking about the use of lethal force against a sovereign state. We need to define the why before we move to the how." | "We have to ask ourselves what are national security interests at stake that are worth such expenditure of US blood and treasure," he adds. "Because there is no doubt we are talking about the use of lethal force against a sovereign state. We need to define the why before we move to the how." |
| Other such as Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argue the real issue is not military risk but what happens when Assad tries to exploit any civilian casualties from western attacks. | Other such as Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argue the real issue is not military risk but what happens when Assad tries to exploit any civilian casualties from western attacks. |
| "There isn't an effective military response to a western no-fly zone, but politically the Iranians and the Syrians have many more cards to play," he says. | "There isn't an effective military response to a western no-fly zone, but politically the Iranians and the Syrians have many more cards to play," he says. |
| So far the calculation in the White House is that such national interests are not sufficiently at stake, but in the worst case scenario that the conflict embroils not just Lebanon but possibly Iraq too, Obama's determination to avoid unnecessary entanglement will face its greatest challenge. | So far the calculation in the White House is that such national interests are not sufficiently at stake, but in the worst case scenario that the conflict embroils not just Lebanon but possibly Iraq too, Obama's determination to avoid unnecessary entanglement will face its greatest challenge. |
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