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| Woolwich attack: questions Scotland Yard and MI5 will be asking themselves | Woolwich attack: questions Scotland Yard and MI5 will be asking themselves |
| (4 months later) | |
| Scotland Yard and MI5 will have known very quickly that the two suspects in the Woolwich attack were on their files; the men had apparently been "on their radar" for up to eight years, having cropped up as peripheral figures in different counter-terrorist investigations, with at least one of them involved with the now outlawed group, al-Muhajiroun. | Scotland Yard and MI5 will have known very quickly that the two suspects in the Woolwich attack were on their files; the men had apparently been "on their radar" for up to eight years, having cropped up as peripheral figures in different counter-terrorist investigations, with at least one of them involved with the now outlawed group, al-Muhajiroun. |
| The question investigators will be asking themselves – as they prepare for scrutiny from the Independent Police Complaint Commission (IPCC) and the intelligence and security committee – is whether they missed anything that could have miscalculated the intentions of the men, or set aside any intelligence which would have prevented the attack. | The question investigators will be asking themselves – as they prepare for scrutiny from the Independent Police Complaint Commission (IPCC) and the intelligence and security committee – is whether they missed anything that could have miscalculated the intentions of the men, or set aside any intelligence which would have prevented the attack. |
| The definitive answers may not emerge until any forthcoming trial but the strong hints emerging from a number of well informed sources in Whitehall indicate the information held about the men did not suggest they were capable of such violence, or that they had crossed the threshold from extremist "thinkers" to jihadist "doers". The judgments are sometimes fine, and the science around them hazy. | The definitive answers may not emerge until any forthcoming trial but the strong hints emerging from a number of well informed sources in Whitehall indicate the information held about the men did not suggest they were capable of such violence, or that they had crossed the threshold from extremist "thinkers" to jihadist "doers". The judgments are sometimes fine, and the science around them hazy. |
| The Metropolitan police and MI5 work very closely on domestic counter-terrorism, and never more so than in the runup to last year's Olympics, when both the police and the security service beefed up their operations to cope with any threat. | The Metropolitan police and MI5 work very closely on domestic counter-terrorism, and never more so than in the runup to last year's Olympics, when both the police and the security service beefed up their operations to cope with any threat. |
| MI5 adapted their usual way of sifting information – making the mouth of the intelligence funnel wider, and increasing the number of analysts assessing the leads coming in from agents, informers and foreign intelligence organisations. | MI5 adapted their usual way of sifting information – making the mouth of the intelligence funnel wider, and increasing the number of analysts assessing the leads coming in from agents, informers and foreign intelligence organisations. |
| This comprehensive undertaking left officers at Thames House with between 2,000 and 3,000 names of people on a potential worry list – far more than the agency or the police could ever hope to cover with comprehensive surveillance. The two men in custody were probably on that list. | This comprehensive undertaking left officers at Thames House with between 2,000 and 3,000 names of people on a potential worry list – far more than the agency or the police could ever hope to cover with comprehensive surveillance. The two men in custody were probably on that list. |
| Investigators were already aware that one of them had expressed an interest in travelling to Somalia, presumably to join the al-Qaida affiliate, al-Shabaab. | Investigators were already aware that one of them had expressed an interest in travelling to Somalia, presumably to join the al-Qaida affiliate, al-Shabaab. |
| Only a small number of Britons have gone to Somalia, and those that have tried have been easily identified by the police because the simplest way into the country is via neighbouring Kenya, and there is routine monitoring of the flights to and from Nairobi. | Only a small number of Britons have gone to Somalia, and those that have tried have been easily identified by the police because the simplest way into the country is via neighbouring Kenya, and there is routine monitoring of the flights to and from Nairobi. |
| It is not thought either of the men in Woolwich actually made it to Somalia. One suggestion is that one of them had been put off by a "tap on the shoulder" as he prepared for the trip. Nobody in Whitehall would be drawn on the specifics, but the conclusions drawn by specialists who have to make excruciating decisions in this field, having weighed up all this material, is that the men did not warrant moving up the worry list; they did not pose an imminent threat to national security. | It is not thought either of the men in Woolwich actually made it to Somalia. One suggestion is that one of them had been put off by a "tap on the shoulder" as he prepared for the trip. Nobody in Whitehall would be drawn on the specifics, but the conclusions drawn by specialists who have to make excruciating decisions in this field, having weighed up all this material, is that the men did not warrant moving up the worry list; they did not pose an imminent threat to national security. |
| Part of any assessment of this kind is likely to have involved the behavioural science unit at MI5, which looks at the profiles of individuals, and tries to judge where on the spectrum a suspect might be in terms of being prepared to turn words or boasts into action. | Part of any assessment of this kind is likely to have involved the behavioural science unit at MI5, which looks at the profiles of individuals, and tries to judge where on the spectrum a suspect might be in terms of being prepared to turn words or boasts into action. |
| "The security service cannot look at everyone; that would be impossible, and undesirable," said one Whitehall source. "There are limited resources, so for every file you want to open, another one has to close. That does not mean that the police and MI5 are disregarding a potential threat, it means there are other people out there they are more worried about, and difficult calls have to be made." | "The security service cannot look at everyone; that would be impossible, and undesirable," said one Whitehall source. "There are limited resources, so for every file you want to open, another one has to close. That does not mean that the police and MI5 are disregarding a potential threat, it means there are other people out there they are more worried about, and difficult calls have to be made." |
| Another source added: "Intelligence-gathering cannot be open-ended. You have to stop looking at some things to give yourself the opportunity to look at other things." | Another source added: "Intelligence-gathering cannot be open-ended. You have to stop looking at some things to give yourself the opportunity to look at other things." |
| Though David Cameron did not say so specifically, the prime minister will have been briefed on what the police and MI5 knew about these men when he chaired Cobra, the crisis committee convened in times of emergency. Afterwards Cameron chose his words very carefully – offering both encouragement and an exhortation. | Though David Cameron did not say so specifically, the prime minister will have been briefed on what the police and MI5 knew about these men when he chaired Cobra, the crisis committee convened in times of emergency. Afterwards Cameron chose his words very carefully – offering both encouragement and an exhortation. |
| "The police and security services will follow every lead, will turn over every piece of evidence, will make every connection and will not rest until we know every single detail of what happened and we've brought all of those responsible to justice. | "The police and security services will follow every lead, will turn over every piece of evidence, will make every connection and will not rest until we know every single detail of what happened and we've brought all of those responsible to justice. |
| "I know from three years of being prime minister that the police and intelligence services work around the clock to keep us safe from violent extremists. I watch their work every week. They do an outstanding job." | "I know from three years of being prime minister that the police and intelligence services work around the clock to keep us safe from violent extremists. I watch their work every week. They do an outstanding job." |
| Uncovering all they had on them, and building a case that might lead to criminal prosecutions, remains the priority. But the questions won't end there. | Uncovering all they had on them, and building a case that might lead to criminal prosecutions, remains the priority. But the questions won't end there. |
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