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| Civil partnerships and marriage: predicting impact | Civil partnerships and marriage: predicting impact |
| (4 months later) | |
| When your stance on a subject risks you being branded as homophobic, disrespectful of religion, out of touch or anti-establishment it might be better to argue your case on the basis of cost. And with a subject as sensitive as gay marriage on the table, that's exactly the strategy many MPs appear to be adopting. | When your stance on a subject risks you being branded as homophobic, disrespectful of religion, out of touch or anti-establishment it might be better to argue your case on the basis of cost. And with a subject as sensitive as gay marriage on the table, that's exactly the strategy many MPs appear to be adopting. |
| Or at least indirectly. In fact, the current debate between MPs is about the potential price tag if heterosexual couples were also to be granted civil partnership rights but many suggest that, if passed, the amendment could derail the gay marriage bill. | Or at least indirectly. In fact, the current debate between MPs is about the potential price tag if heterosexual couples were also to be granted civil partnership rights but many suggest that, if passed, the amendment could derail the gay marriage bill. |
| The estimated costs for amending the bill have varied between £90m to £4bn - leading critics such as the Conservative MP Tim Loughton to brand the numbers as "back of fag packet scaremongering". While Shiv Malik is taking a look at how the numbers stack up on the reality check blog, we're considering the number of people the legislation is likely to affect. | The estimated costs for amending the bill have varied between £90m to £4bn - leading critics such as the Conservative MP Tim Loughton to brand the numbers as "back of fag packet scaremongering". While Shiv Malik is taking a look at how the numbers stack up on the reality check blog, we're considering the number of people the legislation is likely to affect. |
| Peter Tatchell, sponsor of Equal Love, a group campaigning in favour of both same-sex civil marriage and opposite-sex civil partnerships, said "you can't put a price on equality. When it comes to equal rights, cost should not be a factor". He added, "if civil partnerships were made available to heterosexual couples in the UK there would probably be a similar significant take up". | Peter Tatchell, sponsor of Equal Love, a group campaigning in favour of both same-sex civil marriage and opposite-sex civil partnerships, said "you can't put a price on equality. When it comes to equal rights, cost should not be a factor". He added, "if civil partnerships were made available to heterosexual couples in the UK there would probably be a similar significant take up". |
| We're not so sure. For one thing, there's a difference between short-term and long-term demand - as demonstrated by the number of civil partnerships in the UK which fell quite steadily from 16,106 in 2006 to just 6,795 in 2011. | We're not so sure. For one thing, there's a difference between short-term and long-term demand - as demonstrated by the number of civil partnerships in the UK which fell quite steadily from 16,106 in 2006 to just 6,795 in 2011. |
| The Datablog covered all the numbers the last time that the Office for National Statistics released data on civil partnerships in July 2012. Here are some of the main statistics that came out of our analysis then (you can find these, and more, in the data link below) | The Datablog covered all the numbers the last time that the Office for National Statistics released data on civil partnerships in July 2012. Here are some of the main statistics that came out of our analysis then (you can find these, and more, in the data link below) |
| The number of people entering a civil partnerships (106,834) was five times the number initially predicted The average age for entering a civil partnership was just over 40 for men and 38 for women 1,768 civil partnerships were dissolved between 2007 and 2011 | The number of people entering a civil partnerships (106,834) was five times the number initially predicted The average age for entering a civil partnership was just over 40 for men and 38 for women 1,768 civil partnerships were dissolved between 2007 and 2011 |
| Given that heterosexual couples have the option of marriage (which currently offers a preferable pension to widowed partners than a civil partnership) it seems unlikely that heterosexual civil partnerships will see the same intial uptake. | Given that heterosexual couples have the option of marriage (which currently offers a preferable pension to widowed partners than a civil partnership) it seems unlikely that heterosexual civil partnerships will see the same intial uptake. |
| When the Government Equalities Office looked instead to what had happened in other countries such as Argentina, Canada or Iceland where same-sex marriage has been introduced they found that there was "insufficient evidence" on demand. With one exception: the Netherlands. | When the Government Equalities Office looked instead to what had happened in other countries such as Argentina, Canada or Iceland where same-sex marriage has been introduced they found that there was "insufficient evidence" on demand. With one exception: the Netherlands. |
| The Netherlands is also a critical case study for the proposed amendment since it has followed a path similar to the one projected for the UK - same sex couples were allowed to enter into registered partnerships from 1998 and in 2001 same sex couples could enter into civil marriages. Since 2001, registered partnerships and civil marriages have been open to same sex and opposite sex couples and they are able to convert between the two. | The Netherlands is also a critical case study for the proposed amendment since it has followed a path similar to the one projected for the UK - same sex couples were allowed to enter into registered partnerships from 1998 and in 2001 same sex couples could enter into civil marriages. Since 2001, registered partnerships and civil marriages have been open to same sex and opposite sex couples and they are able to convert between the two. |
| As data from the Netherlands shows, the number of partnership registrations between men and women did increase. But the numbers weren't huge - from 2,847 in 2001 to 7,774 in 2002 (compared to 83,970 marriages between men and women in the same year). | As data from the Netherlands shows, the number of partnership registrations between men and women did increase. But the numbers weren't huge - from 2,847 in 2001 to 7,774 in 2002 (compared to 83,970 marriages between men and women in the same year). |
| In 2009, Tom Freeman and Katherine Doyle began a legal challenge after applying for a civil partnership and being refused. The pair had the backing of Equal Love which, according to its website, also receives the support of MPs and MEPs from the Labour, Conservative, Green and Liberal Democrat parties. | In 2009, Tom Freeman and Katherine Doyle began a legal challenge after applying for a civil partnership and being refused. The pair had the backing of Equal Love which, according to its website, also receives the support of MPs and MEPs from the Labour, Conservative, Green and Liberal Democrat parties. |
| You can add your voice to this debate either via Twitter to @MonaChalabi or @GuardianData or by starting a discussion below. | You can add your voice to this debate either via Twitter to @MonaChalabi or @GuardianData or by starting a discussion below. |
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