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Scotland's tough call: stay in the UK, or stay in the EU? Scotland's tough call: stay in the UK, or stay in the EU?
(4 months later)
The Scots are accustomed to having their views ignored in the British political system. In 18 general elections since the second world war, the Conservatives have had a majority in Scotland only once (1955), yet they have formed the government nine times. Despite voting consistently for the left, Scotland has been governed by Labour for only 30 years out of 68. If England is set to elect the Conservatives, in other words, it's hardly worth going out to vote in Scotland at all: we know what we'll get.The Scots are accustomed to having their views ignored in the British political system. In 18 general elections since the second world war, the Conservatives have had a majority in Scotland only once (1955), yet they have formed the government nine times. Despite voting consistently for the left, Scotland has been governed by Labour for only 30 years out of 68. If England is set to elect the Conservatives, in other words, it's hardly worth going out to vote in Scotland at all: we know what we'll get.
But this democratic flaw could take on a whole new dimension as Westminster drifts inexorably towards holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union. That's because the next British general election could conceivably not merely give the Scots yet another government they didn't vote for, but bring on a referendum that could take Britain out of the EU – something that is opposed, by all accounts, by a majority of Scots.But this democratic flaw could take on a whole new dimension as Westminster drifts inexorably towards holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union. That's because the next British general election could conceivably not merely give the Scots yet another government they didn't vote for, but bring on a referendum that could take Britain out of the EU – something that is opposed, by all accounts, by a majority of Scots.
Having the wrong government imposed on you can at least be reversed five years later (if the English so decide). Leaving the EU can't.Having the wrong government imposed on you can at least be reversed five years later (if the English so decide). Leaving the EU can't.
It is widely taken for granted that most Scots, unlike many English, are happy with being in the EU. A recent poll put support for Ukip at just 0.2%, and last week we saw its leader, Nigel Farage, fleeing under police protection when he tried to work his beer-swilling charm in Edinburgh. Unfortunately, the small band of protesters who hounded Farage out of town came across as anti-English rather than as thoughtful supporters of the EU (and Alex Salmond might serve his cause better by condemning every hint of xenophobia among his followers than appearing to condone it).It is widely taken for granted that most Scots, unlike many English, are happy with being in the EU. A recent poll put support for Ukip at just 0.2%, and last week we saw its leader, Nigel Farage, fleeing under police protection when he tried to work his beer-swilling charm in Edinburgh. Unfortunately, the small band of protesters who hounded Farage out of town came across as anti-English rather than as thoughtful supporters of the EU (and Alex Salmond might serve his cause better by condemning every hint of xenophobia among his followers than appearing to condone it).
But the incident did more than merely expose the ugly (and thankfully almost insignificant) side of Scottish nationalism. It may have been the moment when Farage realised that, as far as Scots are concerned, his Ukip might as well be named English Independence party, because most Scots just do not share his obsession with the evils of Brussels.But the incident did more than merely expose the ugly (and thankfully almost insignificant) side of Scottish nationalism. It may have been the moment when Farage realised that, as far as Scots are concerned, his Ukip might as well be named English Independence party, because most Scots just do not share his obsession with the evils of Brussels.
Indeed, Scotland's right to remain in the EU if it becomes a separate country has emerged as a major issue in the campaign leading up to next year's independence referendum, with all parties – whether pro or anti – working on the general assumption that the Scots really care about being in Europe. Unionists (including, bizarrely, the Eurosceptic Tories) try to scare voters with the threat that an independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU; the SNP struggles to persuade voters that won't happen.Indeed, Scotland's right to remain in the EU if it becomes a separate country has emerged as a major issue in the campaign leading up to next year's independence referendum, with all parties – whether pro or anti – working on the general assumption that the Scots really care about being in Europe. Unionists (including, bizarrely, the Eurosceptic Tories) try to scare voters with the threat that an independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU; the SNP struggles to persuade voters that won't happen.
But just as there is a majority in favour of remaining in Europe, so there is a majority currently in favour of remaining in the UK. Most Scots, in other words, don't want to change anything – although if greater powers for Holyrood were on offer they would grab them with both hands.But just as there is a majority in favour of remaining in Europe, so there is a majority currently in favour of remaining in the UK. Most Scots, in other words, don't want to change anything – although if greater powers for Holyrood were on offer they would grab them with both hands.
All that could be changed, though, by the rising anti-EU tide south of the border. To put it crudely, the simple way for Scotland to avoid the risk of being cast out of the EU would be to vote for independence from the UK before the English get the chance to vote on Europe.All that could be changed, though, by the rising anti-EU tide south of the border. To put it crudely, the simple way for Scotland to avoid the risk of being cast out of the EU would be to vote for independence from the UK before the English get the chance to vote on Europe.
The political calendar is important. First come the European parliament elections next May: a big showing for Ukip would not only bolster the anti-EU forces in the Conservative party but also possibly prompt Labour to back the idea of an EU referendum in the next Westminster parliament. Tub-thumping tabloids would then drum us towards the exit.The political calendar is important. First come the European parliament elections next May: a big showing for Ukip would not only bolster the anti-EU forces in the Conservative party but also possibly prompt Labour to back the idea of an EU referendum in the next Westminster parliament. Tub-thumping tabloids would then drum us towards the exit.
But long before then Scotland will hold its own referendum, in September 2014, to decide whether to stay in the UK. Not surprisingly, the SNP is already arguing that leaving the UK might be the only way for Scotland to guarantee it remains in the EU.But long before then Scotland will hold its own referendum, in September 2014, to decide whether to stay in the UK. Not surprisingly, the SNP is already arguing that leaving the UK might be the only way for Scotland to guarantee it remains in the EU.
A poll published in yesterday's Sunday Times suggests the changing mood south of the border could be a game-changer. While 36% of Scots polled said they supported independence from the UK under present circumstances (with 44% opposed), the yes vote soared to 44% (with 44% still opposed) when voters were asked how they would vote if it looked as though Britain was going to leave the EU.A poll published in yesterday's Sunday Times suggests the changing mood south of the border could be a game-changer. While 36% of Scots polled said they supported independence from the UK under present circumstances (with 44% opposed), the yes vote soared to 44% (with 44% still opposed) when voters were asked how they would vote if it looked as though Britain was going to leave the EU.
Until now, the working assumption has been that an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would both remain in the EU. But with Farage and the swivel-eyed loons riding high in the English charts, Scots now have to consider the possibility that they might be there alone. It's a daunting thought. Instead of the cosy arrangement with England that most independence supporters envisage (Queen, currency, open borders, "social union"), there could be passport controls and bureaux de change along the Tweed. Scotland might have to have its own currency, or adopt the euro.Until now, the working assumption has been that an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would both remain in the EU. But with Farage and the swivel-eyed loons riding high in the English charts, Scots now have to consider the possibility that they might be there alone. It's a daunting thought. Instead of the cosy arrangement with England that most independence supporters envisage (Queen, currency, open borders, "social union"), there could be passport controls and bureaux de change along the Tweed. Scotland might have to have its own currency, or adopt the euro.
The prospect of a Scotland cut adrift from England and dangling on a very long European anchor might worry even diehard bravehearts. Whatever logic might say, blood is thicker than water, and Scotland's ties with England are surely stronger than with "the continent". ("Logic", by the way, says Scots are like the Danes or Swedes, whose social systems and temperament we admire. But of course, we don't share a language or family ties with them, not to mention a land border.)The prospect of a Scotland cut adrift from England and dangling on a very long European anchor might worry even diehard bravehearts. Whatever logic might say, blood is thicker than water, and Scotland's ties with England are surely stronger than with "the continent". ("Logic", by the way, says Scots are like the Danes or Swedes, whose social systems and temperament we admire. But of course, we don't share a language or family ties with them, not to mention a land border.)
So Scots now have an invidious choice: vote next year for independence (and, it is assumed, membership of the EU) and risk that links with England collapse if it then votes to leave Europe in 2017; or vote to stay in the UK and risk being taken out of Europe anyway, courtesy of voters down south – thereby losing the European social safeguards that might protect Scotland from the excesses of unelected Tory governments in the future.So Scots now have an invidious choice: vote next year for independence (and, it is assumed, membership of the EU) and risk that links with England collapse if it then votes to leave Europe in 2017; or vote to stay in the UK and risk being taken out of Europe anyway, courtesy of voters down south – thereby losing the European social safeguards that might protect Scotland from the excesses of unelected Tory governments in the future.
It's the bad luck of the Scots. You wait a lifetime for a referendum, and then two of the damned things come along at once, each profoundly influencing the other. It's so fiendishly complicated, you almost long for the days when England took our decisions for us. Almost..It's the bad luck of the Scots. You wait a lifetime for a referendum, and then two of the damned things come along at once, each profoundly influencing the other. It's so fiendishly complicated, you almost long for the days when England took our decisions for us. Almost..
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