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| Jihadists' control of Syrian oilfields signals a decisive moment in conflict | Jihadists' control of Syrian oilfields signals a decisive moment in conflict |
| (8 days later) | |
| The stranglehold that Jabhat al-Nusra and its allies have achieved over Syria's oilfields signals a decisive moment in the conflict that will shape the rapidly and violently evolving map of the new Middle East. | The stranglehold that Jabhat al-Nusra and its allies have achieved over Syria's oilfields signals a decisive moment in the conflict that will shape the rapidly and violently evolving map of the new Middle East. |
| The impact is immediately visible. With a new independent source of funding, the jihadists holding the oilfields between al-Raqqa and Deir Ezzor are much better equipped than their Sunni rivals, reinforcing the advantage originally provided by Qatari backing. They have been able to provide bread and other essentials to the people in the areas under their control, securing an enduring popular base. | The impact is immediately visible. With a new independent source of funding, the jihadists holding the oilfields between al-Raqqa and Deir Ezzor are much better equipped than their Sunni rivals, reinforcing the advantage originally provided by Qatari backing. They have been able to provide bread and other essentials to the people in the areas under their control, securing an enduring popular base. |
| This serves to marginalise the western-backed rebels, the National Coalition and the Supreme Military Council (SMC), even further. The blustering claim by the SMC commander, Salim Idriss, that he was going to muster a 30,000 force to retake the oilfields served only to undermine his credibility. | This serves to marginalise the western-backed rebels, the National Coalition and the Supreme Military Council (SMC), even further. The blustering claim by the SMC commander, Salim Idriss, that he was going to muster a 30,000 force to retake the oilfields served only to undermine his credibility. |
| More importantly, as so often in history, control over hydrocarbons has solidified new lines on the map. The fact that the Syrian army has withdrawn from the heart of the country and that the victorious Salafist groups have not pressed their attack, but instead entered into a revenue-sharing agreement with Damascus over the oil, show that both sides are satisfied with the dividing lines. | More importantly, as so often in history, control over hydrocarbons has solidified new lines on the map. The fact that the Syrian army has withdrawn from the heart of the country and that the victorious Salafist groups have not pressed their attack, but instead entered into a revenue-sharing agreement with Damascus over the oil, show that both sides are satisfied with the dividing lines. |
| The regime's forces, made more ethnically pure and more resolute by two years of Sunni defections, is clearing out an Allawite state along the Syrian coastal plain. The horrific massacres of Sunni communities in Baniyas and al-Bayda earlier this month were acts of ethnic cleansing designed to scare away any remaining Sunni pockets. | The regime's forces, made more ethnically pure and more resolute by two years of Sunni defections, is clearing out an Allawite state along the Syrian coastal plain. The horrific massacres of Sunni communities in Baniyas and al-Bayda earlier this month were acts of ethnic cleansing designed to scare away any remaining Sunni pockets. |
| With the rise of al-Nusra, meanwhile, the importance of the Syrian-Iraq border, forged nearly a century ago by Britain and France in the Sykes-Picot agreement, is eroding fast as Sunni Salafist groups on both sides find common cause. The executions of Syrian soldiers in a public square in al-Raqqa were carried out under the black banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, a merger between Syrian and Iraqi al-Qaida affiliates. | With the rise of al-Nusra, meanwhile, the importance of the Syrian-Iraq border, forged nearly a century ago by Britain and France in the Sykes-Picot agreement, is eroding fast as Sunni Salafist groups on both sides find common cause. The executions of Syrian soldiers in a public square in al-Raqqa were carried out under the black banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, a merger between Syrian and Iraqi al-Qaida affiliates. |
| While the makings of a Sunni mini-state are emerging in al-Jazira plain, Upper Mesopotamia, stretching from Turkey to central Iraq, a Kurdish state is forming to the east, again crystallised with the help of oil. To the fury of Baghdad, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq has reportedly struck a deal with Ankara for Turkish state energy companies to take a stake in the region's oil and gas fields. The deal has caused tension with Washington, apparently during the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the White House last week. | While the makings of a Sunni mini-state are emerging in al-Jazira plain, Upper Mesopotamia, stretching from Turkey to central Iraq, a Kurdish state is forming to the east, again crystallised with the help of oil. To the fury of Baghdad, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) of Iraq has reportedly struck a deal with Ankara for Turkish state energy companies to take a stake in the region's oil and gas fields. The deal has caused tension with Washington, apparently during the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the White House last week. |
| For Ankara, the aggravation with the US is worth it. A reliable source of energy is essential for Turkey if it wants to continue to grow and eventually become the pipeline connection between Europe and the Middle East. These geostrategic ambitions are the background to Ankara's ceasefire with its own Kurdish separatists, the PKK, which has also cleared the way for side deals with Syria's Kurds who hold oil and gas fields in al-Hasakah. | For Ankara, the aggravation with the US is worth it. A reliable source of energy is essential for Turkey if it wants to continue to grow and eventually become the pipeline connection between Europe and the Middle East. These geostrategic ambitions are the background to Ankara's ceasefire with its own Kurdish separatists, the PKK, which has also cleared the way for side deals with Syria's Kurds who hold oil and gas fields in al-Hasakah. |
| The new map that is emerging from the turmoil may make a lot more historical and cultural sense than the lines imposed by western imperialism, but Assad's fateful decision two years ago to respond to the Syrian uprising with violence rather than negotiation has meant that the new Middle East will be even less stable than what came before, perhaps for a generation at least. And oil has helped stoke the fire. | The new map that is emerging from the turmoil may make a lot more historical and cultural sense than the lines imposed by western imperialism, but Assad's fateful decision two years ago to respond to the Syrian uprising with violence rather than negotiation has meant that the new Middle East will be even less stable than what came before, perhaps for a generation at least. And oil has helped stoke the fire. |
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