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David Cameron and Europe: a question of leadership David Cameron and Europe: a question of leadership
(4 months later)
Once a leader who warned his party to stop "banging on about Europe", David Cameron is now a laggard – running up the rear of his troops with a Eurosceptic drum, which he keeps bashing a little too late.Once a leader who warned his party to stop "banging on about Europe", David Cameron is now a laggard – running up the rear of his troops with a Eurosceptic drum, which he keeps bashing a little too late.
The January speech in which he committed to renegotiation and referendum pretended to seize the initiative. In truth, it was a nervy reaction to a restive backbench and an already evident bump in Ukip support.The January speech in which he committed to renegotiation and referendum pretended to seize the initiative. In truth, it was a nervy reaction to a restive backbench and an already evident bump in Ukip support.
Four months on, he has abjectly failed to deal with either. Ukip is sitting pretty on 18% in the polls, and the parliamentary party has entered a condition which one sympathetic observer said on Tuesday cried out less for political analysis than for psychiatry.Four months on, he has abjectly failed to deal with either. Ukip is sitting pretty on 18% in the polls, and the parliamentary party has entered a condition which one sympathetic observer said on Tuesday cried out less for political analysis than for psychiatry.
Every frenzied demand to lock down or bring forward the promised plebiscite is answered with more panicky political percussion. Days after insisting that coalition realities precluded pre-election legislation for a post-election referendum, Mr Cameron belatedly signalled a rethink about whether there was something he could do in parliament.Every frenzied demand to lock down or bring forward the promised plebiscite is answered with more panicky political percussion. Days after insisting that coalition realities precluded pre-election legislation for a post-election referendum, Mr Cameron belatedly signalled a rethink about whether there was something he could do in parliament.
But if you seek to satisfy obsessives, it is as well to be certain that you really can give them all they want. Mr Cameron was instead virtually certain that he could not deliver.But if you seek to satisfy obsessives, it is as well to be certain that you really can give them all they want. Mr Cameron was instead virtually certain that he could not deliver.
For, while his Lib Dem partners have proposed an in/out referendum in the event of a new EU treaty, they have no patience with a gratuitous vote. The PM was so resigned to this that he did not bother raising a referendum bill with Nick Clegg before the Queen's speech. After Her Majesty was mute on the subject, the malcontents inevitably started mumbling afresh.For, while his Lib Dem partners have proposed an in/out referendum in the event of a new EU treaty, they have no patience with a gratuitous vote. The PM was so resigned to this that he did not bother raising a referendum bill with Nick Clegg before the Queen's speech. After Her Majesty was mute on the subject, the malcontents inevitably started mumbling afresh.
In the vain hope of calming the Conservative mood, Mr Cameron has tirelessly improvised. In place of the familiar one-, two- or three-line whip, Tory backbenchers will on Wednesday experience the "profoundly relaxed" whip, effectively licensing them to criticise their own government's Queen's speech.In the vain hope of calming the Conservative mood, Mr Cameron has tirelessly improvised. In place of the familiar one-, two- or three-line whip, Tory backbenchers will on Wednesday experience the "profoundly relaxed" whip, effectively licensing them to criticise their own government's Queen's speech.
Ministers will meanwhile be shepherded away from the voting lobbies entirely, for fear of drawing further attention to the cabinet divisions laid bare at the weekend, when Michael Gove and Philip Hammond let slip that they could happily live with an immediate EU exit. In another departure, ministerial aides – ordinarily expected to vote with their bosses – will enjoy a special free pass.Ministers will meanwhile be shepherded away from the voting lobbies entirely, for fear of drawing further attention to the cabinet divisions laid bare at the weekend, when Michael Gove and Philip Hammond let slip that they could happily live with an immediate EU exit. In another departure, ministerial aides – ordinarily expected to vote with their bosses – will enjoy a special free pass.
Finally, on Monday night, No 10 signalled the half-hope that a referendum bill, published by the Conservative party rather than Whitehall, might wend its way to the statute books after being picked up by some backbencher.Finally, on Monday night, No 10 signalled the half-hope that a referendum bill, published by the Conservative party rather than Whitehall, might wend its way to the statute books after being picked up by some backbencher.
The procedural obstacles are profound, and Mr Cameron's real aim is less achieving anything concrete than chiding Labour and Lib Dem MPs into voting against giving the people a say.The procedural obstacles are profound, and Mr Cameron's real aim is less achieving anything concrete than chiding Labour and Lib Dem MPs into voting against giving the people a say.
That is never a popular position to take, and it is only because of Ed Miliband's steely concern to prevent his potential premiership becoming as ensnared in Europe as the Cameron administration that Labour has thus far held its nerve against the in/out vote.That is never a popular position to take, and it is only because of Ed Miliband's steely concern to prevent his potential premiership becoming as ensnared in Europe as the Cameron administration that Labour has thus far held its nerve against the in/out vote.
The Tory tactics might appear sharp, but they do not add up to a strategy for the government – still less the country. Most voters certainly would quite like a referendum, but not at the price of a divided government, paralysed on things that matter more.The Tory tactics might appear sharp, but they do not add up to a strategy for the government – still less the country. Most voters certainly would quite like a referendum, but not at the price of a divided government, paralysed on things that matter more.
Mr Cameron started the week petitioning Barack Obama for an EU-US trade deal, something he understandably regards as important – greater trade is one of the few forms of stimulus compatible with his economic ideology. But there is no UK trade policy other than that operated through the EU.Mr Cameron started the week petitioning Barack Obama for an EU-US trade deal, something he understandably regards as important – greater trade is one of the few forms of stimulus compatible with his economic ideology. But there is no UK trade policy other than that operated through the EU.
The US president's gentle words about the importance of getting the relationship between Britain and the EU right could not disguise the farce of a prime minister lobbying on behalf of a club which some of his own ministers openly wish to quit. Exasperation in Brussels underlines the diplomatic price that Britain will pay.The US president's gentle words about the importance of getting the relationship between Britain and the EU right could not disguise the farce of a prime minister lobbying on behalf of a club which some of his own ministers openly wish to quit. Exasperation in Brussels underlines the diplomatic price that Britain will pay.
Mr Cameron once led his party by challenging it, but today he meekly muddles through by pandering to its obsessions. Weakness rather than argument provoked the change of course, for the younger Cameron's critique of the Tories' Euro-obsession remains bang-on.Mr Cameron once led his party by challenging it, but today he meekly muddles through by pandering to its obsessions. Weakness rather than argument provoked the change of course, for the younger Cameron's critique of the Tories' Euro-obsession remains bang-on.
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