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| Iran's presidential elections thrown into doubt by last-minute entries | Iran's presidential elections thrown into doubt by last-minute entries |
| (4 months later) | |
| The entry of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei has heated up and complicated Iran's presidential contest. The month or so until polling on 14 June suddenly seems like a long time, with many potential twists and turns as politicians, clerics and voters play their part. | The entry of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei has heated up and complicated Iran's presidential contest. The month or so until polling on 14 June suddenly seems like a long time, with many potential twists and turns as politicians, clerics and voters play their part. |
| Suitably for such drama, both Rafsanjani and Mashaei left it late. | Suitably for such drama, both Rafsanjani and Mashaei left it late. |
| "They showed up at the ministry of interior [on Saturday] some 30 minutes before the close of candidate submissions, and it's certainly created something of an uproar around the town," said one analyst in Tehran. | "They showed up at the ministry of interior [on Saturday] some 30 minutes before the close of candidate submissions, and it's certainly created something of an uproar around the town," said one analyst in Tehran. |
| Amid a field dominated by "principle-ists" – those professing a fierce loyalty to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Rafsanjani and Mashaei offer charisma as well as sharply contrasting views on the way Iran should be governed. | Amid a field dominated by "principle-ists" – those professing a fierce loyalty to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Rafsanjani and Mashaei offer charisma as well as sharply contrasting views on the way Iran should be governed. |
| This could encourage voter turnout, which would be a great boost for Khamenei, the rahbar (supreme leader), and help restore some of the legitimacy lost when the disputed 2009 presidential election provoked widespread street protests. | This could encourage voter turnout, which would be a great boost for Khamenei, the rahbar (supreme leader), and help restore some of the legitimacy lost when the disputed 2009 presidential election provoked widespread street protests. |
| But such rivalries also carry the risk of spilling over into vicious faction fights or even further unrest. | But such rivalries also carry the risk of spilling over into vicious faction fights or even further unrest. |
| Rafsanjani, 78, is a cleric and self-styled man of the system who has held many senior positions in the Islamic republic, including commander in the 1980-88 war against Iraq and president between 1989 and 1997. He has advocated pragmatism both in international policy and in running the economy, in which he believes the private sector should play a greater role. | Rafsanjani, 78, is a cleric and self-styled man of the system who has held many senior positions in the Islamic republic, including commander in the 1980-88 war against Iraq and president between 1989 and 1997. He has advocated pragmatism both in international policy and in running the economy, in which he believes the private sector should play a greater role. |
| Mashaei, 52, is a close ally and relative by marriage of the outgoing president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a self-styled man of the people. | Mashaei, 52, is a close ally and relative by marriage of the outgoing president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a self-styled man of the people. |
| Mashaei has backed the president's egalitarian rhetoric and populist economic policy including subsidised bank loans and cash handouts. He shares Ahmadinejad's regard for folk religion, even at the expense of respect for the jurisprudence of the Islamic clergy, and has even sometimes appeared to laud Iranian nationalism as much as Islam. | Mashaei has backed the president's egalitarian rhetoric and populist economic policy including subsidised bank loans and cash handouts. He shares Ahmadinejad's regard for folk religion, even at the expense of respect for the jurisprudence of the Islamic clergy, and has even sometimes appeared to laud Iranian nationalism as much as Islam. |
| Rafsanjani's registration was the more surprising of the two, especially as he recently said he would stand only with the approval of Khamenei. What kind of blessing, if any, Rafsanjani has received remains unclear, but his decision looks like a recent one, given it is just three weeks since two of his children attended the news conference where Hassan Rowhani, the former top security official and an ally of Rafsanjani, announced his candidacy. | Rafsanjani's registration was the more surprising of the two, especially as he recently said he would stand only with the approval of Khamenei. What kind of blessing, if any, Rafsanjani has received remains unclear, but his decision looks like a recent one, given it is just three weeks since two of his children attended the news conference where Hassan Rowhani, the former top security official and an ally of Rafsanjani, announced his candidacy. |
| It has already been suggested in the principle-ist camp, including by the influential Kayhan newspaper, that the guardian council, which vets candidates before announcing an approved list by 23 May, should block both Rafsanjani and Mashaei. Many principle-ists previously accused Rafsanjani of encouraging the unrest after the 2009 election, whereas Mashaei has frequently been attacked as the head of a "deviant current" and even accused of sorcery. | It has already been suggested in the principle-ist camp, including by the influential Kayhan newspaper, that the guardian council, which vets candidates before announcing an approved list by 23 May, should block both Rafsanjani and Mashaei. Many principle-ists previously accused Rafsanjani of encouraging the unrest after the 2009 election, whereas Mashaei has frequently been attacked as the head of a "deviant current" and even accused of sorcery. |
| Mashaei's registration – and to a lesser extent that of Rafsanjani – emphasises the political nature of the council's role. A spokesman for the council has already said it will refer Ahmadinejad to the judiciary for arriving arm-in-arm at the interior ministry alongside Mashaei for registration. The spokesman suggested this broke the electoral code, which requires that the president avoids electioneering. | Mashaei's registration – and to a lesser extent that of Rafsanjani – emphasises the political nature of the council's role. A spokesman for the council has already said it will refer Ahmadinejad to the judiciary for arriving arm-in-arm at the interior ministry alongside Mashaei for registration. The spokesman suggested this broke the electoral code, which requires that the president avoids electioneering. |
| Further, the prospect of the council turning down either Mashaei or Rafsanjani concentrates attention on Khamenei, who in 2005 created a precedent by instructing the council to reverse a decision not to qualify two reformist candidates. "This is a very difficult race to read until the council of guardians decides," said the analyst, "and it is not impossible that there will be some disagreement about who should or should not run, before Khamenei steps in with 'higher understanding'." | Further, the prospect of the council turning down either Mashaei or Rafsanjani concentrates attention on Khamenei, who in 2005 created a precedent by instructing the council to reverse a decision not to qualify two reformist candidates. "This is a very difficult race to read until the council of guardians decides," said the analyst, "and it is not impossible that there will be some disagreement about who should or should not run, before Khamenei steps in with 'higher understanding'." |
| While many in Tehran have long assumed Mashaei would never clear the guardian council, the president and his close ally have long behaved as if he would be a candidate. This in turn has led to speculation that Ahmadinejad and Mashaei have certain cards to play: these are assumed to be the release of evidence of corruption in high places and the will to provoke a crisis, even street unrest, if the council turns him down. | While many in Tehran have long assumed Mashaei would never clear the guardian council, the president and his close ally have long behaved as if he would be a candidate. This in turn has led to speculation that Ahmadinejad and Mashaei have certain cards to play: these are assumed to be the release of evidence of corruption in high places and the will to provoke a crisis, even street unrest, if the council turns him down. |
| But just the prospect of Mashaei and Rafsanjani on the ballot paper has been enough to stir up the election. Rafsanjani will try to offer a measured, almost technocratic presidency seeking domestic economic reform and reduced international tension over the nuclear programme. How well this plays with voters will depend on Rafsanjani conducting a far less complacent campaign than his last bid, when he was trounced by Ahmadinejad in the run-off presidential ballot in 2005. | But just the prospect of Mashaei and Rafsanjani on the ballot paper has been enough to stir up the election. Rafsanjani will try to offer a measured, almost technocratic presidency seeking domestic economic reform and reduced international tension over the nuclear programme. How well this plays with voters will depend on Rafsanjani conducting a far less complacent campaign than his last bid, when he was trounced by Ahmadinejad in the run-off presidential ballot in 2005. |
| While he can expect support from business and older clerics, Rafsanjani is also pitching for support from reform-minded voters. | While he can expect support from business and older clerics, Rafsanjani is also pitching for support from reform-minded voters. |
| Reformist groups and parties have dithered for months over the election and many will refuse to back a pragmatic conservative like Rafsanjani, but Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president from 1997-2005, has already issued a public statement supporting him. | Reformist groups and parties have dithered for months over the election and many will refuse to back a pragmatic conservative like Rafsanjani, but Mohammad Khatami, the reformist president from 1997-2005, has already issued a public statement supporting him. |
| If he passes the council, Mashaei will seek to take forward Ahmadinejad's almost messianic commitment to share oil wealth with ordinary Iranians, particularly through subsidised bank loans and direct cash payments. This is scorned by better-off Iranians but it may still appeal to many poorer people, even though Mashaei is a close ally of a president who is leaving office with unemployment at 32%, inflation at 13% and oil exports halved by stringent western sanctions over the nuclear programme. | If he passes the council, Mashaei will seek to take forward Ahmadinejad's almost messianic commitment to share oil wealth with ordinary Iranians, particularly through subsidised bank loans and direct cash payments. This is scorned by better-off Iranians but it may still appeal to many poorer people, even though Mashaei is a close ally of a president who is leaving office with unemployment at 32%, inflation at 13% and oil exports halved by stringent western sanctions over the nuclear programme. |
| The possible inclusion of Mashaei, Rafsanjani or even both on the ballot paper should concentrate minds in the principle-ist camp. The more astute already sense the danger of being squashed between the two, but so far at least the principle-ists have behaved – in the words of Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii – like a "herd of cats". | The possible inclusion of Mashaei, Rafsanjani or even both on the ballot paper should concentrate minds in the principle-ist camp. The more astute already sense the danger of being squashed between the two, but so far at least the principle-ists have behaved – in the words of Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii – like a "herd of cats". |
| The format of the Iranian presidential election – where the two best-placed candidates proceed to a second round – should encourage like-minded candidates not to run against each other. But the lack of any effective party structure makes this difficult and it remains to be seen whether egos can be overcome and trade-offs arranged to form a more united front. | The format of the Iranian presidential election – where the two best-placed candidates proceed to a second round – should encourage like-minded candidates not to run against each other. But the lack of any effective party structure makes this difficult and it remains to be seen whether egos can be overcome and trade-offs arranged to form a more united front. |
| Some principle-ist candidates have made tentative agreements to drop out in favour of an ally. This may be easiest for the "2+1" principle-ist coalition of Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Khamenei; the mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; and the former parliamentary speaker Gholam-Reza Haddad-Adel. But other principle-ists in the field include Saeed Jalili, the top security official and nuclear negotiator; the former foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki; and Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Ahmadinejad's former health minister and the candidate of Jebhey-e Paydari (Resistance Front). | Some principle-ist candidates have made tentative agreements to drop out in favour of an ally. This may be easiest for the "2+1" principle-ist coalition of Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Khamenei; the mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; and the former parliamentary speaker Gholam-Reza Haddad-Adel. But other principle-ists in the field include Saeed Jalili, the top security official and nuclear negotiator; the former foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki; and Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Ahmadinejad's former health minister and the candidate of Jebhey-e Paydari (Resistance Front). |
| But any manoeuvring over who should stand down in favour of whom will suck effort from engaging voters. The principle-ist candidates have been projecting themselves as competent managers but most – the main exception being Ghalibaf – are short of public profile and short of time in which to create it. | But any manoeuvring over who should stand down in favour of whom will suck effort from engaging voters. The principle-ist candidates have been projecting themselves as competent managers but most – the main exception being Ghalibaf – are short of public profile and short of time in which to create it. |
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