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| Obama faces tough decisions on Syria as pressure for intervention mounts | Obama faces tough decisions on Syria as pressure for intervention mounts |
| (9 days later) | |
| President Barack Obama will come under increasing pressure this week, from international allies as well as Congress, to intervene in the Syrian civil war as the death toll mounts and the crisis spills into neighbouring countries. | President Barack Obama will come under increasing pressure this week, from international allies as well as Congress, to intervene in the Syrian civil war as the death toll mounts and the crisis spills into neighbouring countries. |
| Obama's toughest meeting will be on Thursday, with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, raging over two bomb attacks in Turkey on Saturday that killed 46. Turkey, which has been assisting the Syrian rebels, blamed Syria. Erdogan will press a reluctant Obama to become involved. Before that, Obama sees British prime minister David Cameron at the White House on Monday, for an update on a renewed push for a diplomatic solution, an international conference that would bring together Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's government and the rebels. | Obama's toughest meeting will be on Thursday, with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, raging over two bomb attacks in Turkey on Saturday that killed 46. Turkey, which has been assisting the Syrian rebels, blamed Syria. Erdogan will press a reluctant Obama to become involved. Before that, Obama sees British prime minister David Cameron at the White House on Monday, for an update on a renewed push for a diplomatic solution, an international conference that would bring together Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's government and the rebels. |
| On top of the White House meetings, Congressional hearings are scheduled this week on Syria, presenting an opportunity for some of the most vocal members to call for Obama to do something to resolve the conflict. All options for the Obama administration look grim. | On top of the White House meetings, Congressional hearings are scheduled this week on Syria, presenting an opportunity for some of the most vocal members to call for Obama to do something to resolve the conflict. All options for the Obama administration look grim. |
| International peace conference: | International peace conference: |
| A joint US-Russia initiative, with the conference planned for June. On paper, it offers the best chance of resolving the issue, bringing Assad's government and the rebels together to see if they can reach agreement on ending violence and creating a new compromise government. | A joint US-Russia initiative, with the conference planned for June. On paper, it offers the best chance of resolving the issue, bringing Assad's government and the rebels together to see if they can reach agreement on ending violence and creating a new compromise government. |
| However, while a diplomatic solution would be ideal for the Obama administration, few believe that there is a realistic chance of a deal. Much hinges on the Russia, Syria's consistently loyal ally. Cameron met the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in Russia on Friday and Downing Street briefed reporters that Cameron would tell Obama that Putin was prepared to be flexible. Putin, though, has not shown much willingness this year to work with the US, Britain and other members of the United Nations security council on the Syrian crisis. Russia is also continuing to supply arms to Assad, claiming it is only honouring contracts. | However, while a diplomatic solution would be ideal for the Obama administration, few believe that there is a realistic chance of a deal. Much hinges on the Russia, Syria's consistently loyal ally. Cameron met the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in Russia on Friday and Downing Street briefed reporters that Cameron would tell Obama that Putin was prepared to be flexible. Putin, though, has not shown much willingness this year to work with the US, Britain and other members of the United Nations security council on the Syrian crisis. Russia is also continuing to supply arms to Assad, claiming it is only honouring contracts. |
| Even if a conference is held, there would be difficult problems. What rebel groups would be invited? Would rebels agree to a compromise government that left Assad involved? | Even if a conference is held, there would be difficult problems. What rebel groups would be invited? Would rebels agree to a compromise government that left Assad involved? |
| Friction is already evident. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said on Thursday that there could be no compromise that leaves Assad in power. His Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, said that Assad's departure would not be a precondition of the conference. | Friction is already evident. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, said on Thursday that there could be no compromise that leaves Assad in power. His Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, said that Assad's departure would not be a precondition of the conference. |
| Feelers to the Assad government: | Feelers to the Assad government: |
| Amid scepticism over whether a peace conference will work, the Obama administration's next best option is to see Assad, above, and his immediate circle forced to leave Syria, leaving the rump of his government in place. This rump would provide, from a US viewpoint, a group that it could work with, preferred to rebel groups that are strongly Islamist. | Amid scepticism over whether a peace conference will work, the Obama administration's next best option is to see Assad, above, and his immediate circle forced to leave Syria, leaving the rump of his government in place. This rump would provide, from a US viewpoint, a group that it could work with, preferred to rebel groups that are strongly Islamist. |
| Arab countries close to the US have maintained links with senior figures in the Assad government, encouraging them to stay in place. Assuming Assad was to leave, the rump government would still have to reach an accommodation with the rebels. | Arab countries close to the US have maintained links with senior figures in the Assad government, encouraging them to stay in place. Assuming Assad was to leave, the rump government would still have to reach an accommodation with the rebels. |
| Arm the rebels: | Arm the rebels: |
| Britain and France, as well as a vocal group of Republicans in the Senate, are pushing Obama to arm the rebels. | Britain and France, as well as a vocal group of Republicans in the Senate, are pushing Obama to arm the rebels. |
| Britain and France are pressing other European Union members to lift an arms embargo. They argue that while some of the rebels are Islamists, it is better to work with the rebels and try to help strenghten the moderate ones. The White House is reluctant to arm rebels, fearing it will be supplyng Islamist groups that are hostile to the US. The nightmare for the US – and Israel – would be the Islamists taking power, turning Syria into a platform for attacks on Israel with access to chemical weapons. | Britain and France are pressing other European Union members to lift an arms embargo. They argue that while some of the rebels are Islamists, it is better to work with the rebels and try to help strenghten the moderate ones. The White House is reluctant to arm rebels, fearing it will be supplyng Islamist groups that are hostile to the US. The nightmare for the US – and Israel – would be the Islamists taking power, turning Syria into a platform for attacks on Israel with access to chemical weapons. |
| The White House has agreed to the supply of communications and other non-lethal equipment to the rebels but has so far resisted sending arms. If it does bow to pressure, it would send as few as possible. | The White House has agreed to the supply of communications and other non-lethal equipment to the rebels but has so far resisted sending arms. If it does bow to pressure, it would send as few as possible. |
| No-fly zone: | No-fly zone: |
| Erdogan will press for US intervention, citing the human-rights abuses and massive death toll in Syria, as well as the alleged use of chemical weapons. He will also stress the risk of the violence spilling over into not only to Turkey but Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. To a large extent it already has, with Israel bombing Syrian targets, Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters engaged and Jordan struggling with the refugee crisis. | Erdogan will press for US intervention, citing the human-rights abuses and massive death toll in Syria, as well as the alleged use of chemical weapons. He will also stress the risk of the violence spilling over into not only to Turkey but Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. To a large extent it already has, with Israel bombing Syrian targets, Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters engaged and Jordan struggling with the refugee crisis. |
| Erdogan supports a no-fly zone because it would at least protect civilians in rebel-controlled areas from air attack. But it would consolidate the rebel hold on parts of the country, making eventual fragmentation more likely. No-fly zones could also see US planes come under attack from Syrian air defences. A no-fly zone was maintained over Iraq for years and was largely ineffective. | Erdogan supports a no-fly zone because it would at least protect civilians in rebel-controlled areas from air attack. But it would consolidate the rebel hold on parts of the country, making eventual fragmentation more likely. No-fly zones could also see US planes come under attack from Syrian air defences. A no-fly zone was maintained over Iraq for years and was largely ineffective. |
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