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| After Strikes in Syria, Concerns About an Escalation of Fighting | After Strikes in Syria, Concerns About an Escalation of Fighting |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| BEIRUT — Four huge explosions just west of Damascus shook the ground across the Syrian capital early Sunday, sending fiery mushroom-shaped clouds towering over the landmark Mount Qasioun and brightening the night sky in a demonstration of firepower more massive than anything the residents of the city, a government stronghold, have witnessed during more than two years of war. | |
| The Syrian government immediately blamed Israel for the explosions, whose power appeared to far outstrip that of any weapons in the rebel arsenal. Israeli officials refused to confirm that they were responsible for the strikes, which the Syrian deputy foreign minister, speaking on CNN, called “an act of war.” | |
| With much still unexplained about the effects and motivations of the attack, questions transfixed the region, which has lived in fear that the Syrian war will lead to a wider conflagration. It was unclear whether Israel, if it carried out the strikes, sought to intervene in Syria’s civil conflict, or was simply expanding its campaign to prevent Syria’s government from transferring weapons to its ally Hezbollah, the militant Shiite organization in Lebanon that is one of Israel’s most dangerous foes. | |
| Reports of the attack raised the possibility that Israel, even if merely intending to pursue its own national security goals, could end up providing a psychological and perhaps military assist to Syrian rebels, who over the last several weeks have faced losses in a series of government offensives around Damascus and the city of Homs to the north. For Syrian rebels, any benefit from the damage to key military structures from the attacks — said by opposition activists to have hit bases of elite troops as well as weapons stores — would be offset by the political complication of being seen as allied with Israel, their country's longtime enemy. | |
| Israel deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in northern cities, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided any mention of the developments in Syria in his remarks at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday. He did, however, delay by two hours his evening departure for China so he could convene his security cabinet. | |
| If carried out by Israel, the attack would be the third in Syria by that country this year and the second in two days; an American official said a more limited strike early Friday at Damascus International Airport was meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to the Lebanese Shiite militia and the political party Hezbollah, an aim similar to that of an Israeli strike in January. | If carried out by Israel, the attack would be the third in Syria by that country this year and the second in two days; an American official said a more limited strike early Friday at Damascus International Airport was meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to the Lebanese Shiite militia and the political party Hezbollah, an aim similar to that of an Israeli strike in January. |
| But the explosions that struck Damascus on Sunday, shaking the ground across the city, appeared to be of far greater magnitude and potentially broader political and military significance. | But the explosions that struck Damascus on Sunday, shaking the ground across the city, appeared to be of far greater magnitude and potentially broader political and military significance. |
| Within hours of Sunday’s explosions, the rebel Damascus Military Council sought to capitalize. The council issued a statement calling on all fighters in the area to work together, put aside rivalries and mount focused attacks on government forces that so far have kept a solid hold on Damascus, the capital. | Within hours of Sunday’s explosions, the rebel Damascus Military Council sought to capitalize. The council issued a statement calling on all fighters in the area to work together, put aside rivalries and mount focused attacks on government forces that so far have kept a solid hold on Damascus, the capital. |
| Still, military analysts said Sunday’s attacks by themselves were not likely to tip the balance between the rebels and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. And Louay Mekdad, a spokesman for the Supreme Military Council, considered Washington’s best option for a military ally among the rebels, discounted claims by some rebel groups that they would take advantage of the airstrikes to escalate their attacks on the Syrian government. | Still, military analysts said Sunday’s attacks by themselves were not likely to tip the balance between the rebels and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. And Louay Mekdad, a spokesman for the Supreme Military Council, considered Washington’s best option for a military ally among the rebels, discounted claims by some rebel groups that they would take advantage of the airstrikes to escalate their attacks on the Syrian government. |
| Video posted online on Sunday showed multiple explosions hitting the area west of the Syrian capital, which is home an array of crucial military installations. According to residents in the area and Syrian opposition groups, the attacks struck bases of the army’s elite fighting units as well as a research center that American officials have said is the country’s main facility for chemical weapons development. | Video posted online on Sunday showed multiple explosions hitting the area west of the Syrian capital, which is home an array of crucial military installations. According to residents in the area and Syrian opposition groups, the attacks struck bases of the army’s elite fighting units as well as a research center that American officials have said is the country’s main facility for chemical weapons development. |
| Not all those assertions were confirmed by the Syrian government, which said only that the research center in Jamraya had been hit. | Not all those assertions were confirmed by the Syrian government, which said only that the research center in Jamraya had been hit. |
| Syrian state television said the explosions confirmed what the government has been contending all along: that the rebels are part of an American-Israeli conspiracy to target Mr. Assad for his support of Palestinians and opposition to Western policies in the Middle East. | Syrian state television said the explosions confirmed what the government has been contending all along: that the rebels are part of an American-Israeli conspiracy to target Mr. Assad for his support of Palestinians and opposition to Western policies in the Middle East. |
| While being seen as allies of Israel could tarnish the rebels in Syrian eyes, the rebels could also point to the strikes as proof of their government’s hypocrisy. A frequent refrain among fighters and activists has been that while the government’s security forces and military failed to prevent the Israeli strikes — and for that matter have not clashed with Israel since 1973 — they have killed tens of thousands of Syrians and jailed many more in order to hold onto power. | While being seen as allies of Israel could tarnish the rebels in Syrian eyes, the rebels could also point to the strikes as proof of their government’s hypocrisy. A frequent refrain among fighters and activists has been that while the government’s security forces and military failed to prevent the Israeli strikes — and for that matter have not clashed with Israel since 1973 — they have killed tens of thousands of Syrians and jailed many more in order to hold onto power. |
| Some rebels and activists say openly that they consider Mr. Assad a far higher-priority target than Israel, while making clear that they do not embrace Israel. | Some rebels and activists say openly that they consider Mr. Assad a far higher-priority target than Israel, while making clear that they do not embrace Israel. |
| The main exile Syrian opposition coalition walked that line carefully in a statement issued after the bombings, blaming the government for allowing attacks by “external occupying forces.” | The main exile Syrian opposition coalition walked that line carefully in a statement issued after the bombings, blaming the government for allowing attacks by “external occupying forces.” |
| “The regime has used its forces to suppress the popular demands of the people for change, weakening Syrian defense, and thus allowing external occupying forces to hit Syrian locations,” the statement said. “Israel’s actions, including its pre-emptive attacks to weaken Syrian defenses, demonstrate a fear of losing the years of peace that the Assad regime provided for Israel.” | “The regime has used its forces to suppress the popular demands of the people for change, weakening Syrian defense, and thus allowing external occupying forces to hit Syrian locations,” the statement said. “Israel’s actions, including its pre-emptive attacks to weaken Syrian defenses, demonstrate a fear of losing the years of peace that the Assad regime provided for Israel.” |
| Some opposition fighters, in a conflict that has taken on an increasingly sectarian cast, have said that for the Sunni-led rebellion, their greatest enemy is not Israel but Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, the closest allies of Mr. Assad’s government. In recent weeks, sectarian rhetoric has heightened against Shiites and Alawites, a related sect to which Mr. Assad belongs. | Some opposition fighters, in a conflict that has taken on an increasingly sectarian cast, have said that for the Sunni-led rebellion, their greatest enemy is not Israel but Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, the closest allies of Mr. Assad’s government. In recent weeks, sectarian rhetoric has heightened against Shiites and Alawites, a related sect to which Mr. Assad belongs. |
| Government supporters also portrayed the rebellion as driven by extremist Sunni Muslim ideologies like Wahhabism. The opposition has accused Alawite and Shiite militias of carrying out massacres of Sunni Muslims, including in the last two weeks in the Damascus suburbs and in Baniyas, a mostly-Sunni area in the largely Alawite coastal region. | Government supporters also portrayed the rebellion as driven by extremist Sunni Muslim ideologies like Wahhabism. The opposition has accused Alawite and Shiite militias of carrying out massacres of Sunni Muslims, including in the last two weeks in the Damascus suburbs and in Baniyas, a mostly-Sunni area in the largely Alawite coastal region. |
| Iran’s defense minister, traveling inside the country with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accused the United States of “giving the green light” for the airstrikes. General Ahmad Vahidi told Iran’s semiofficial Fars News agency that is becoming “increasingly clear” to Iran that Israel and Syrian rebels are working together in trying to bring down the Assad government. | |
| “These attacks reveal the close relations between the mercenary terrorists and their supporters, the Zionist regime,” he said. While Mr. Vahidi did not elaborate, Iranian officials have often accused Syrian rebel forces of providing assistance and intelligence on the ground, facilitating Israeli airstrikes. | “These attacks reveal the close relations between the mercenary terrorists and their supporters, the Zionist regime,” he said. While Mr. Vahidi did not elaborate, Iranian officials have often accused Syrian rebel forces of providing assistance and intelligence on the ground, facilitating Israeli airstrikes. |
| While Israeli government and military officials refused to confirm or to take any responsibility for the strikes, one senior Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that he did not think that Israel was entering a war with Syria and suggested that Syria was unlikely to respond. | While Israeli government and military officials refused to confirm or to take any responsibility for the strikes, one senior Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that he did not think that Israel was entering a war with Syria and suggested that Syria was unlikely to respond. |
| President Bashar al-Assad “has his own problems,” the official noted. “He doesn’t need Israel in the mess.” | President Bashar al-Assad “has his own problems,” the official noted. “He doesn’t need Israel in the mess.” |
| Similarly, the official said that he did not think Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite organization that is backed by Iran and supports Mr. Assad would respond. “Hezbollah, as far as understood, has no intention of opening a war in Israel,” the official said, adding that Hezbollah was keeping its Iranian-supplied weapons for the day that Iran thinks it may be attacked by Israel or the United States. | Similarly, the official said that he did not think Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite organization that is backed by Iran and supports Mr. Assad would respond. “Hezbollah, as far as understood, has no intention of opening a war in Israel,” the official said, adding that Hezbollah was keeping its Iranian-supplied weapons for the day that Iran thinks it may be attacked by Israel or the United States. |
| Israeli experts said that Israel had no interest in getting involved in the Syrian conflict beyond looking after Israel’s own, immediate interests, and that the latest strikes appeared to have more to do with Israel’s cardinal standoff against Iran. | Israeli experts said that Israel had no interest in getting involved in the Syrian conflict beyond looking after Israel’s own, immediate interests, and that the latest strikes appeared to have more to do with Israel’s cardinal standoff against Iran. |
| “This shouldn’t be seen as Israel intervening on behalf of the rebels or against Bashar,” said Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya. “This is an escalation in a conflict we know about, and that is the conflict between Israel and Iran, the long shadow war, as people call it. This is an incident in that war.” | “This shouldn’t be seen as Israel intervening on behalf of the rebels or against Bashar,” said Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya. “This is an escalation in a conflict we know about, and that is the conflict between Israel and Iran, the long shadow war, as people call it. This is an incident in that war.” |
| However, “one has to ask oneself about Israel’s calculus,” Mr. Spyer said. “Obviously there is a risk in that at a certain point, a response becomes more likely.” | However, “one has to ask oneself about Israel’s calculus,” Mr. Spyer said. “Obviously there is a risk in that at a certain point, a response becomes more likely.” |
| Professor Moshe Maoz of the Hebrew University said that Iran was now the crucial actor regarding how things might unfold. | Professor Moshe Maoz of the Hebrew University said that Iran was now the crucial actor regarding how things might unfold. |
| “If Hezbollah gets a green light from Iran to retaliate, Israel won’t remain idle and it could lead to regional war,” he said. “The decision is probably to be taken in Tehran.” | “If Hezbollah gets a green light from Iran to retaliate, Israel won’t remain idle and it could lead to regional war,” he said. “The decision is probably to be taken in Tehran.” |
| Israeli analysts said that Mr. Assad would be wary of retaliating against Israel, aware that Israel could strike back at his assets with far more firepower than the rebels in Syria can muster. At the same time, they said, Israel was taking a calculated risk because the more frequent and stronger strikes, the more likely they could at some point lead to a reaction. | Israeli analysts said that Mr. Assad would be wary of retaliating against Israel, aware that Israel could strike back at his assets with far more firepower than the rebels in Syria can muster. At the same time, they said, Israel was taking a calculated risk because the more frequent and stronger strikes, the more likely they could at some point lead to a reaction. |
| Professor Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University said of the strikes, “It is the kind of thing that you know how it begins, but not how it ends.” | Professor Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University said of the strikes, “It is the kind of thing that you know how it begins, but not how it ends.” |
| “Israel is still not involved in the war in Syria,” he added, “but it is getting closer.” | “Israel is still not involved in the war in Syria,” he added, “but it is getting closer.” |
Anne Barnard reported from Beirut, and Jodi Rudoren and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem. Reporting was contributed by Hania Mourtada and Hwaida Saad in Beirut, Hala Droubi in Dubai, an employee of The New York Times in Damascus, Ben Hubbard in Cairo and Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran. | Anne Barnard reported from Beirut, and Jodi Rudoren and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem. Reporting was contributed by Hania Mourtada and Hwaida Saad in Beirut, Hala Droubi in Dubai, an employee of The New York Times in Damascus, Ben Hubbard in Cairo and Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran. |