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| Hollande gambling on election defeat for Merkel as French influence fades | Hollande gambling on election defeat for Merkel as French influence fades |
| (12 days later) | |
| François Hollande made his debut on the European summitry stage in May and June last year as the anti-Merkel, the first European leader of weight to openly challenge the German chancellor's austerity prescriptions as the best medicine for curing the euro's ills. | François Hollande made his debut on the European summitry stage in May and June last year as the anti-Merkel, the first European leader of weight to openly challenge the German chancellor's austerity prescriptions as the best medicine for curing the euro's ills. |
| A year on, it is difficult to find anyone in Brussels or EU capitals who has been impressed by the French president or believe he has achieved anything of note. Relations between Paris and Berlin have plunged to fresh lows. There has been no meeting of minds. Fundamental, deep-seated policy divisions plague the EU's central relationship. | A year on, it is difficult to find anyone in Brussels or EU capitals who has been impressed by the French president or believe he has achieved anything of note. Relations between Paris and Berlin have plunged to fresh lows. There has been no meeting of minds. Fundamental, deep-seated policy divisions plague the EU's central relationship. |
| Last week, a draft European policy paper from Hollande's governing Socialists included a brutal attack on Merkel, denouncing not only German policies but the chancellor personally as someone interested solely in her re-election prospects, the interests of German savers, and the profits of German industry. | Last week, a draft European policy paper from Hollande's governing Socialists included a brutal attack on Merkel, denouncing not only German policies but the chancellor personally as someone interested solely in her re-election prospects, the interests of German savers, and the profits of German industry. |
| "For many European commentators and politicians," wrote the analyst Renaud Thillaye this week in a paper for the Policy Network thinktank, "he is no longer the flagbearer for a different Europe." | "For many European commentators and politicians," wrote the analyst Renaud Thillaye this week in a paper for the Policy Network thinktank, "he is no longer the flagbearer for a different Europe." |
| Witnesses at the many crisis summits in Brussels held over the past year recall a French president declining to challenge Merkel at all, failing to supply leadership to those who believed he would spearhead the effort against austerity after an election campaign built on that promise. | Witnesses at the many crisis summits in Brussels held over the past year recall a French president declining to challenge Merkel at all, failing to supply leadership to those who believed he would spearhead the effort against austerity after an election campaign built on that promise. |
| Hollande has found himself in the tricky position of having to decide whether he would lead a Club Med of southern countries like Spain and Italy against the German-led north, or seek an accommodation with Berlin. A year later, it appears he still has to make up his mind. "Paris has not yet really decided where it wants to be with Germany," said a senior EU diplomat. | Hollande has found himself in the tricky position of having to decide whether he would lead a Club Med of southern countries like Spain and Italy against the German-led north, or seek an accommodation with Berlin. A year later, it appears he still has to make up his mind. "Paris has not yet really decided where it wants to be with Germany," said a senior EU diplomat. |
| With two Brussels summits in the next two months, Berlin and Paris said they would deliver a joint policy paper on responses to the euro crisis. This has not happened and the attempt has been suspended. Behind the scenes the Germans are worried and angry about Hollande's inaction and lack of urgency. Hollande, by contrast, appears unwilling to do Merkel any favours ahead of the crucial German ballot in September when Merkel bids for a third term. "He's waiting for the election," said the diplomat. | With two Brussels summits in the next two months, Berlin and Paris said they would deliver a joint policy paper on responses to the euro crisis. This has not happened and the attempt has been suspended. Behind the scenes the Germans are worried and angry about Hollande's inaction and lack of urgency. Hollande, by contrast, appears unwilling to do Merkel any favours ahead of the crucial German ballot in September when Merkel bids for a third term. "He's waiting for the election," said the diplomat. |
| The main difference Hollande has made in Europe is not being his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, who was seen to have made life much easier for Merkel. Officials and diplomats say it is only since Sarkozy disappeared that it has become clear how much political cover and support he supplied to help the German leader get her way, underlining the imbalance in Berlin's favour in the Franco-German relationship. Hollande's opposition has left Merkel more isolated, but there is little evidence that he has managed to force any change of direction. | The main difference Hollande has made in Europe is not being his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, who was seen to have made life much easier for Merkel. Officials and diplomats say it is only since Sarkozy disappeared that it has become clear how much political cover and support he supplied to help the German leader get her way, underlining the imbalance in Berlin's favour in the Franco-German relationship. Hollande's opposition has left Merkel more isolated, but there is little evidence that he has managed to force any change of direction. |
| • This article was amended on 8 May 2013. The original said the analyst Renaud Thillaye had written a paper for the Policy Exchange thinktank. Thillaye is a researcher at, and wrote the paper for, the Policy Network thinktank. | • This article was amended on 8 May 2013. The original said the analyst Renaud Thillaye had written a paper for the Policy Exchange thinktank. Thillaye is a researcher at, and wrote the paper for, the Policy Network thinktank. |
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