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| A guide to the Pakistan election | A guide to the Pakistan election |
| (4 months later) | |
| Pakistan's general election on 11 May will mark the first time a democratically elected government in the country has been succeeded by another. Since independence from Britain in 1947, civilian rule has been repeatedly overturned by military coups, the last led by General Pervez Musharraf who held power from 1999 until 2008, when democracy was restored. | Pakistan's general election on 11 May will mark the first time a democratically elected government in the country has been succeeded by another. Since independence from Britain in 1947, civilian rule has been repeatedly overturned by military coups, the last led by General Pervez Musharraf who held power from 1999 until 2008, when democracy was restored. |
| The election is also remarkable for its unpredictability following a significant constitutional devolution of central government power in 2010 under the presidency of Asif Ali Zardari, and the linked development of a more open, freer public discourse. Demographic pressures, economic and security worries, the advent of social media and numerous new challenges to the hegemony of the established parties have added to the uncertainty. | The election is also remarkable for its unpredictability following a significant constitutional devolution of central government power in 2010 under the presidency of Asif Ali Zardari, and the linked development of a more open, freer public discourse. Demographic pressures, economic and security worries, the advent of social media and numerous new challenges to the hegemony of the established parties have added to the uncertainty. |
| The electoral landscape | The electoral landscape |
| Pakistan's population totals roughly 190 million, of whom an estimated two-thirds are under 30. About 92 million of the total are adults aged 18 or over, and of them, 84.4 million are registered voters. An estimated 40 million young Pakistanis will be eligible to vote for the first time. The absence of a recent census, large-scale, ongoing shifts in population from the countryside to the cities and a lack of reliable nationwide opinion polls and polling data mean that any predictions are mostly guesses. | Pakistan's population totals roughly 190 million, of whom an estimated two-thirds are under 30. About 92 million of the total are adults aged 18 or over, and of them, 84.4 million are registered voters. An estimated 40 million young Pakistanis will be eligible to vote for the first time. The absence of a recent census, large-scale, ongoing shifts in population from the countryside to the cities and a lack of reliable nationwide opinion polls and polling data mean that any predictions are mostly guesses. |
| The issues that may shape the outcome are more clear-cut. Pakistan's economy has been battered by three years of successive floods from 2010 to 2012 that damaged the country's agricultural heartlands. Power cuts are endemic, with some rural areas receiving only four hours of electricity a day. Clean water and food, adequate education and healthcare remain beyond the reach of many Pakistanis. Crime and unemployment are big issues in the cities. | The issues that may shape the outcome are more clear-cut. Pakistan's economy has been battered by three years of successive floods from 2010 to 2012 that damaged the country's agricultural heartlands. Power cuts are endemic, with some rural areas receiving only four hours of electricity a day. Clean water and food, adequate education and healthcare remain beyond the reach of many Pakistanis. Crime and unemployment are big issues in the cities. |
| A low or no-skill workforce, low productivity, lack of competitiveness, poor infrastructure, unaffordably high public spending, lack of foreign investment, endemic corruption and physical insecurity combine to threaten the prospects of future generations. Foreign exchange reserves are falling, the fiscal deficit is rising, and IMF bailout help is again being sought. Little wonder the government is all but broke; in Pakistan, less than 1% of the population is registered to pay income tax. | A low or no-skill workforce, low productivity, lack of competitiveness, poor infrastructure, unaffordably high public spending, lack of foreign investment, endemic corruption and physical insecurity combine to threaten the prospects of future generations. Foreign exchange reserves are falling, the fiscal deficit is rising, and IMF bailout help is again being sought. Little wonder the government is all but broke; in Pakistan, less than 1% of the population is registered to pay income tax. |
| The process | The process |
| Pakistan's elections largely follow the Westminster first-past-the post system, although 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities and allocated by PR. Candidates on 11 May will seek seats in the lower chamber of the national assembly and in the four provincial assemblies – Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province). | Pakistan's elections largely follow the Westminster first-past-the post system, although 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities and allocated by PR. Candidates on 11 May will seek seats in the lower chamber of the national assembly and in the four provincial assemblies – Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province). |
| A total of 172 out of 272 directly elected seats is required for a governing majority in the national assembly, although no single party is expected to achieve that. At present a caretaker government is in place. An independent election commission has been created to oversee the polls, and outside organisations such as the EU have agreed to send observers. Most commentators expect the election to produce another coalition government after a possibly prolonged period of wrangling. | A total of 172 out of 272 directly elected seats is required for a governing majority in the national assembly, although no single party is expected to achieve that. At present a caretaker government is in place. An independent election commission has been created to oversee the polls, and outside organisations such as the EU have agreed to send observers. Most commentators expect the election to produce another coalition government after a possibly prolonged period of wrangling. |
| Concern has been expressed about the reliability of electoral rolls given rapid population shifts and the possibility of deliberate fraud. Some voter lists have been computerised for the first time. Intimidation of voters by extremist religious or separatist groups is another worry. | Concern has been expressed about the reliability of electoral rolls given rapid population shifts and the possibility of deliberate fraud. Some voter lists have been computerised for the first time. Intimidation of voters by extremist religious or separatist groups is another worry. |
| Five terrorist attacks since 11 Apri have killed 24 people, including lethal bomb explosions at election rallies in Peshawar and Khuzdar. | Five terrorist attacks since 11 Apri have killed 24 people, including lethal bomb explosions at election rallies in Peshawar and Khuzdar. |
| The players | The players |
| The centre-left, secular Pakistan People's party (PPP) of the assassinated former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, remains Pakistan's foremost political force. It led the outgoing government in coalition with other parties, controls the Sindh assembly, and participates in ruling coalitions running all the other provinces bar Punjab. Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, holds the presidency (he is due to stand down in September), and their son, Bilawal, is the party's new leading light. But the PPP is expected to pay a price for governmental failures and could fall foul to a US-style "throw the bums out" mood among disillusioned voters. | The centre-left, secular Pakistan People's party (PPP) of the assassinated former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, remains Pakistan's foremost political force. It led the outgoing government in coalition with other parties, controls the Sindh assembly, and participates in ruling coalitions running all the other provinces bar Punjab. Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, holds the presidency (he is due to stand down in September), and their son, Bilawal, is the party's new leading light. But the PPP is expected to pay a price for governmental failures and could fall foul to a US-style "throw the bums out" mood among disillusioned voters. |
| The conservative, right-leaning PML-N, or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, is led by Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister ousted in 1999 by Musharraf and the only figure outside the PPP with tested national appeal. Sharif could do well. All the same, the PML-N remains based principally in its Punjab stronghold, where Nawaz's brother, Shahbaz, is chief minister, and it is unclear how well placed it is to withstand the challenges presented by iconoclastic new entrants. | The conservative, right-leaning PML-N, or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, is led by Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister ousted in 1999 by Musharraf and the only figure outside the PPP with tested national appeal. Sharif could do well. All the same, the PML-N remains based principally in its Punjab stronghold, where Nawaz's brother, Shahbaz, is chief minister, and it is unclear how well placed it is to withstand the challenges presented by iconoclastic new entrants. |
| Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is an insurgent new party led by the former cricket star Imran Khan, which has tapped into popular anger and frustration with the main parties. Making good use of social media and public rallies, the party strongly opposes the US alliance, campaigns for an end to American drone strikes and has adopted a conservative profile favouring an "Islamic democratic welfare state". But its ability to translate street-level success into parliamentary seats is as yet untested. | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is an insurgent new party led by the former cricket star Imran Khan, which has tapped into popular anger and frustration with the main parties. Making good use of social media and public rallies, the party strongly opposes the US alliance, campaigns for an end to American drone strikes and has adopted a conservative profile favouring an "Islamic democratic welfare state". But its ability to translate street-level success into parliamentary seats is as yet untested. |
| The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) is a leading religious party with links to the Muslim Brotherhood that boycotted the 2008 elections but is taking part this time on an Islamist-nationalist platform. It is a member of the Defence of Pakistan Council that includes other conservative parties such as PTI and leaders of the Punjab-based, nominally-banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. It is to be differentiated from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-e-Fazl (JUI-F), a clerical party that was part of the MMA coalition of religious parties that was defeated in 2008, but still exercises limited influence. | The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) is a leading religious party with links to the Muslim Brotherhood that boycotted the 2008 elections but is taking part this time on an Islamist-nationalist platform. It is a member of the Defence of Pakistan Council that includes other conservative parties such as PTI and leaders of the Punjab-based, nominally-banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. It is to be differentiated from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-e-Fazl (JUI-F), a clerical party that was part of the MMA coalition of religious parties that was defeated in 2008, but still exercises limited influence. |
| Other parties include the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), originally formed by Urdu-speaking migrants from present-day India known as Mohajirs; the Awami National party (ANP), a secular Pashtun nationalist grouping that controls Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; the Baluchistan National party-Mengal (BNP), which advocates greater autonomy for Baluchistan; the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, comprising former supporters of Musharraf; and Musharraf's new All Pakistan Muslim League, which appears still-born following his arrest. | Other parties include the Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), originally formed by Urdu-speaking migrants from present-day India known as Mohajirs; the Awami National party (ANP), a secular Pashtun nationalist grouping that controls Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; the Baluchistan National party-Mengal (BNP), which advocates greater autonomy for Baluchistan; the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, comprising former supporters of Musharraf; and Musharraf's new All Pakistan Muslim League, which appears still-born following his arrest. |
| Game-changers | Game-changers |
| The military: so far the army appears to have stayed out of the election process, fulfilling a pledge of non-interference by the chief of staff, General Ashfaq Kayani. If true, this marks a change from the past, when the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency covertly encouraged political proxies to further their own agendas. The military remains Pakistan's single most powerful institution. But tarnished by the unpopular Musharraf, and in the context of a more open, less controlled public discourse, it has been forced to tread more carefully. | The military: so far the army appears to have stayed out of the election process, fulfilling a pledge of non-interference by the chief of staff, General Ashfaq Kayani. If true, this marks a change from the past, when the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency covertly encouraged political proxies to further their own agendas. The military remains Pakistan's single most powerful institution. But tarnished by the unpopular Musharraf, and in the context of a more open, less controlled public discourse, it has been forced to tread more carefully. |
| The judiciary: activist judges led by the supreme court chief justice, Iftikar Chaudhry, have succeeded in freeing themselves from governmental control since the Musharraf period, when many were arrested. Chaudhry is a self-styled champion of democratic legal rights and while he has sometimes over-reached, he has made judicial independence an uncomfortable reality for politicians. Pakistan's last two prime ministers were both bested by the supreme court. Now Musharraf has fallen foul of the court, too. If post-election legal disputes ensue, it is possible the next government will require Chaudhry's blessing. | The judiciary: activist judges led by the supreme court chief justice, Iftikar Chaudhry, have succeeded in freeing themselves from governmental control since the Musharraf period, when many were arrested. Chaudhry is a self-styled champion of democratic legal rights and while he has sometimes over-reached, he has made judicial independence an uncomfortable reality for politicians. Pakistan's last two prime ministers were both bested by the supreme court. Now Musharraf has fallen foul of the court, too. If post-election legal disputes ensue, it is possible the next government will require Chaudhry's blessing. |
| Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP): The Pakistani Taliban are committed to the forcible overthrow of secular, pro-western governance and the establishment of an Islamist state based on sharia law – and they will wreck the elections if they can. Although a minority, Pakistan's connivance with the US-led Nato campaign in Afghanistan, and the resulting violent overspill (including the killing of Osama bin Laden), has fed the TTP cause. Other extreme political, religious and separatist groups threaten disruption in Baluchistan, where turnout is usually low as a result of intimidation, in Lahore, Karachi, and in the lawless Federally-Administered Tribal Territories (Fata), where organising any kind of vote is highly problematic. | Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP): The Pakistani Taliban are committed to the forcible overthrow of secular, pro-western governance and the establishment of an Islamist state based on sharia law – and they will wreck the elections if they can. Although a minority, Pakistan's connivance with the US-led Nato campaign in Afghanistan, and the resulting violent overspill (including the killing of Osama bin Laden), has fed the TTP cause. Other extreme political, religious and separatist groups threaten disruption in Baluchistan, where turnout is usually low as a result of intimidation, in Lahore, Karachi, and in the lawless Federally-Administered Tribal Territories (Fata), where organising any kind of vote is highly problematic. |
| The Facebook election? | The Facebook election? |
| Social media including Twitter and Facebook are having an impact, albeit unquantifiable, on the election, especially among affluent younger voters. According to one study, Khan's PTI is leading the way. PTI's website is one of the top 160 most visited in Pakistan, with the older parties trailing far behind. Facebook is the most frequently visited website in the country. But the digital revolution has some way to go. Fewer than one in 10 Pakistanis enjoy internet access, one of the lowest penetration rates in the world. | Social media including Twitter and Facebook are having an impact, albeit unquantifiable, on the election, especially among affluent younger voters. According to one study, Khan's PTI is leading the way. PTI's website is one of the top 160 most visited in Pakistan, with the older parties trailing far behind. Facebook is the most frequently visited website in the country. But the digital revolution has some way to go. Fewer than one in 10 Pakistanis enjoy internet access, one of the lowest penetration rates in the world. |
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