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| Is Obama 'losing juice'? President cuts frustrated figure after series of setbacks | Is Obama 'losing juice'? President cuts frustrated figure after series of setbacks |
| (10 days later) | |
| Perhaps it was the taunting tweet from Mitch McConnell that did it. Or more likely just the indignity of being asked inside his own West Wing whether he was "losing his juice". But just 100 days into his new term, Barack Obama has been forced to confront the issue that is on everyone's lips in Washington right now: is his second presidency over before it ever really began? | Perhaps it was the taunting tweet from Mitch McConnell that did it. Or more likely just the indignity of being asked inside his own West Wing whether he was "losing his juice". But just 100 days into his new term, Barack Obama has been forced to confront the issue that is on everyone's lips in Washington right now: is his second presidency over before it ever really began? |
| "As Mark Twain said, rumours of my demise might be exaggerated at this point," insisted Obama during his first White House press conference in two months. He was responding to a question from ABC's Jonathan Karl about whether recent failures to get gun control reform through Congress or agree a federal budget meant he was now powerless to pursue his own agenda, or "losing juice", as Karl memorably phrased it. | "As Mark Twain said, rumours of my demise might be exaggerated at this point," insisted Obama during his first White House press conference in two months. He was responding to a question from ABC's Jonathan Karl about whether recent failures to get gun control reform through Congress or agree a federal budget meant he was now powerless to pursue his own agenda, or "losing juice", as Karl memorably phrased it. |
| "If you put it that way, Jonathan … maybe I should just pack up and go home," joked a somewhat defensive president. But his tone has shifted noticeably since the confident swagger of Saturday night's stand-up comedy at the White House correspondents' dinner. | "If you put it that way, Jonathan … maybe I should just pack up and go home," joked a somewhat defensive president. But his tone has shifted noticeably since the confident swagger of Saturday night's stand-up comedy at the White House correspondents' dinner. |
| Across a host of issues, the White House is not just frustrated by Republican opposition in Congress, but increasingly humiliated. Gun control represented the worst setback, as Obama was not even able to rally enough Senate support to pass what would have looked like the bare minimum response to the Sandy Hook shooting back at the time of his inauguration speech in January. | Across a host of issues, the White House is not just frustrated by Republican opposition in Congress, but increasingly humiliated. Gun control represented the worst setback, as Obama was not even able to rally enough Senate support to pass what would have looked like the bare minimum response to the Sandy Hook shooting back at the time of his inauguration speech in January. |
| But the long-running stalemate over fiscal policy also took a turn for the worse this weekend when the White House was forced to sign an exemption for the Federal Aviation Authority from the sweeping sequester budget cuts currently hitting many US public services. | But the long-running stalemate over fiscal policy also took a turn for the worse this weekend when the White House was forced to sign an exemption for the Federal Aviation Authority from the sweeping sequester budget cuts currently hitting many US public services. |
| Responding to public anger over long airport queues, congressional Republicans opted for a targeted repeal of the sequester rather than the budget-wide agreement White House would prefer. With no political choice but to approve the FAA bill, Obama now faces the prospect of Congress passing multiple small exemptions where electorally favourable while defusing pressure for a more lasting fiscal settlement. | Responding to public anger over long airport queues, congressional Republicans opted for a targeted repeal of the sequester rather than the budget-wide agreement White House would prefer. With no political choice but to approve the FAA bill, Obama now faces the prospect of Congress passing multiple small exemptions where electorally favourable while defusing pressure for a more lasting fiscal settlement. |
| Until now, Obama has attempted to direct public anger over gun control and fiscal stalemate toward the Republicans, but both events have made clear that his lack of rapport with Congressional leaders is even more of a problem for him. | Until now, Obama has attempted to direct public anger over gun control and fiscal stalemate toward the Republicans, but both events have made clear that his lack of rapport with Congressional leaders is even more of a problem for him. |
| Only last Saturday, during an otherwise well-received turn at the correspondents' dinner, Obama took what some considered to be an ill-judged swipe at Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, suggesting that no one – let alone the president – would want to drink with him. Just what a political miscalculation this might be became apparent two days later when Mitch McConnell's team tweeted a picture of the senator at a bar in Kentucky holding a beer and pointing to an empty seat next to him and an untouched glass of red wine. | Only last Saturday, during an otherwise well-received turn at the correspondents' dinner, Obama took what some considered to be an ill-judged swipe at Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, suggesting that no one – let alone the president – would want to drink with him. Just what a political miscalculation this might be became apparent two days later when Mitch McConnell's team tweeted a picture of the senator at a bar in Kentucky holding a beer and pointing to an empty seat next to him and an untouched glass of red wine. |
| The danger is that it might start to look to floating voters that Obama is too cool for school: preferring to crack jokes at the expense of ageing provincial politicians instead of rolling up his sleeves, holding his nose and working towards compromise. | The danger is that it might start to look to floating voters that Obama is too cool for school: preferring to crack jokes at the expense of ageing provincial politicians instead of rolling up his sleeves, holding his nose and working towards compromise. |
| Pressed on this, Obama still bristles. "You seem to suggest my job is to get them to behave themselves," he told reporters on Tuesday. "That is their job. They are elected representatives of the people." | Pressed on this, Obama still bristles. "You seem to suggest my job is to get them to behave themselves," he told reporters on Tuesday. "That is their job. They are elected representatives of the people." |
| But even former allies are questioning whether Obama has the coalition-building skills for the realpolitik of Washington life. Max Baucus, a Democrat from Montana who just announced he would be retiring at the next election, shocked many by revealing that he had not even been lobbied by the White House before voting against the crucial gun control bill in the Senate. | But even former allies are questioning whether Obama has the coalition-building skills for the realpolitik of Washington life. Max Baucus, a Democrat from Montana who just announced he would be retiring at the next election, shocked many by revealing that he had not even been lobbied by the White House before voting against the crucial gun control bill in the Senate. |
| The constitutional realities of Capitol Hill also appear to frustrate rather than galvanise Obama. During the press conference, he lamented that the Senate had got into the "habit" of "requiring 60 votes for even the most modest legislation". In reality, majority leader Harry Reid was forced to concede a 60-vote threshold on the gun vote because it was the only way to persuade moderate Republicans not to filibuster any debate at all. | The constitutional realities of Capitol Hill also appear to frustrate rather than galvanise Obama. During the press conference, he lamented that the Senate had got into the "habit" of "requiring 60 votes for even the most modest legislation". In reality, majority leader Harry Reid was forced to concede a 60-vote threshold on the gun vote because it was the only way to persuade moderate Republicans not to filibuster any debate at all. |
| Persuading moderate Republicans is something the president will have to do a lot more of in the coming weeks. As the press conference went on, Obama revealed that would be seeking again to try to close the Guantánamo Bay detention centre in Cuba, having previously failed to get congressional backing to fulfill a similar pledge in his first term. Obama said he would be asking his officials to look for action he could take without legislative approval, but he acknowledged the priority was to "re-engage with Congress" on the matter. | Persuading moderate Republicans is something the president will have to do a lot more of in the coming weeks. As the press conference went on, Obama revealed that would be seeking again to try to close the Guantánamo Bay detention centre in Cuba, having previously failed to get congressional backing to fulfill a similar pledge in his first term. Obama said he would be asking his officials to look for action he could take without legislative approval, but he acknowledged the priority was to "re-engage with Congress" on the matter. |
| And on immigration reform, Obama's last great hope for bipartisan progress this term, the White House needs to be careful not to mistake Senate support for reform as a sign that the legislation will necessarily pass in the House. Already there are signs that Republicans in the lower chamber are drafting potentially problematic amendments in the wake of the Boston bombing. | And on immigration reform, Obama's last great hope for bipartisan progress this term, the White House needs to be careful not to mistake Senate support for reform as a sign that the legislation will necessarily pass in the House. Already there are signs that Republicans in the lower chamber are drafting potentially problematic amendments in the wake of the Boston bombing. |
| If they do, the White House will chalk it up as another reason why voters should change the balance of power on Capitol Hill at the mid-term elections. But this might be as good as it gets: history suggests second-term incumbent parties rarely do better in congressional mid-terms than they managed at the general election. | If they do, the White House will chalk it up as another reason why voters should change the balance of power on Capitol Hill at the mid-term elections. But this might be as good as it gets: history suggests second-term incumbent parties rarely do better in congressional mid-terms than they managed at the general election. |
| Obama may boost his own approval ratings by taking the moral high ground or cracking good jokes, but he risks limiting his legacy to first term achievements such as healthcare reform. His supporters fear that being right may not be the same thing as doing right. | Obama may boost his own approval ratings by taking the moral high ground or cracking good jokes, but he risks limiting his legacy to first term achievements such as healthcare reform. His supporters fear that being right may not be the same thing as doing right. |
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