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Nigel Farage's saloon bar insurgency Nigel Farage's saloon bar insurgency
(about 2 hours later)
After Ukip's Nigel Farage made a speech at a press gallery lunch in Westminster on Tuesday, a colleague from a Tory newspaper asked me what I'd thought of it. " Smart fellow, fast on his feet, lively company in the pub: nothing we didn't already know," I replied. " Not good enough. He missed an opportunity to show he can be a serious player," said my chum. After Ukip's Nigel Farage made a speech at a press gallery lunch in Westminster on Tuesday, a colleague from a Tory newspaper asked me what I'd thought of it. "Smart fellow, fast on his feet, lively company in the pub: nothing we didn't already know," I replied. "Not good enough. He missed an opportunity to show he can be a serious player," said my chum.
And, of course, he's right. Farage, a former City metal market dealer and MEP since 1999, made a shrewd, nostalgic point when Margaret Thatcher died and he said there had never been any need for Ukip while a conviction politician such as her was running the show. And, of course, he's right. Farage, a former City metal-market dealer and MEP since 1999, made a shrewd, nostalgic point when Margaret Thatcher died: he said there had never been any need for Ukip while a conviction politician such as her was running the show.
An independent country needs to run its own currency and taxes, and control its own borders, he says. A public school boy himself – one who regrets their domination – he adds that a return to grammar schools to provide a ladder of upward mobility would be a good idea, too.An independent country needs to run its own currency and taxes, and control its own borders, he says. A public school boy himself – one who regrets their domination – he adds that a return to grammar schools to provide a ladder of upward mobility would be a good idea, too.
He certainly regrets Eton's David Cameron. Farage's distain came across loud and clear. Cameron was part of a metropolitan elite – make that Notting Hill elite, he said at one point – that is completely cut off from most people living "50 miles out of London." And those people were not all retired colonels pining for the empire, either, he said. Ukip drew its strength from all three main parties – all London elitists and clones. "God, they're dull," says Mr F, who told his audience of Westminster-based journalists they were part of the problem, too. He certainly regrets Eton's David Cameron. Farage's disdain came across loud and clear. Cameron was part of a metropolitan elite – make that Notting Hill elite, he said at one point – that is completely cut off from most people living "50 miles out of London." And those people were not all retired colonels pining for the empire, either, he said. Ukip drew its strength from the nature of the three main parties – all London elitists and clones. "God, they're dull," said Mr F, who told his audience of Westminster-based journalists they were part of the problem, too.
"David Cameron will not win the next general election. There are millions and millions of people who will never vote for this man," he says, emphatically. He also says Alex Salmond, first minister of Scotland, lives in a "dreamland" in which Scotland can be an independent country inside the EU. The SNP won't get 25% in next year's referendum, he said at one point in the speech, before cutting that to 10-15%. "David Cameron will not win the next general election. There are millions and millions of people who will never vote for this man," he said, emphatically. He also said Alex Salmond, first minister of Scotland, lived in a "dreamland" in which Scotland can be an independent country inside the EU. The SNP won't get 25% in next year's referendum, he said at one point in the speech, before cutting that to 10-15%.
It was a fascinating performance, and I am in danger of making it sound as dull as a coalition minister on a bad day. Here's Simon Hoggart's account of the event – complete with lively Farage jokes and an accurate reflection on his unabashed, deeply nostalgic obsession with drink. As in all Farage speeches I've heard, he mentions it a lot: a line in saloon-bar humour that goes down well with party activists. It was a fascinating performance, and I am in danger of making it sound as dull as a coalition minister on a bad day. Here's Simon Hoggart's account of the event – complete with lively Farage jokes and an accurate reflection on his unabashed, deeply nostalgic obsession with drink. As in all Farage speeches I've heard, he mentioned it a lot: a line in saloon-bar humour that goes down well with party activists.
What struck me again was that Farage's cheerful side barely masks a short fuse, something ex-Ukip types complain about on their dissidents' website. He is genuinely angry – and I don't blame him – about the way Ukip is usually written off as loonies, fruitcakes (copyright D Cameron), nutters etc for expressing views that often influence mainstream debate: on immigration, for instance. What struck me again on Tuesday was that Farage's cheerful side barely masks a short fuse – something ex-Ukip types complain about on their dissidents' website. He is genuinely angry – and I don't blame him – about the way Ukip is usually written off as loonies, fruitcakes (copyright D Cameron), nutters etc for expressing views that often influence mainstream debate: on immigration, for instance.
Why is it OK, Ukip asks, for Scotland, Wales and Ireland to enjoy their national pride while any English person who wants to celebrate St George's Day – Farage wore a red rose to the lunch to make it – is derided? Fair point, though we are the dominant culture in these islands and so have no need loudly to express what many of us take for granted: our place in the pecking order. Why is it OK, Ukip asks, for Scotland, Wales and Ireland to enjoy their national pride while any English person who wants to celebrate St George's Day – Farage wore a red rose to the lunch to mark it – is derided? Fair point, though we are the dominant culture in these islands and so have no need loudly to express what many of us take for granted: our place in the pecking order.
But Ukip, like many insurgent parties, is about grievances. The politicians don't listen to ordinary people, he says, when actually they listen all the time but struggle to reconcile what people "want" with the reality of hard choices in public policy. Immigration is a classic example, as you may notice next time you visit a hospital. But Ukip, like many insurgent parties, is about grievances. The politicians don't listen to ordinary people, he said, when actually they listen all the time but struggle to reconcile what people "want" with the reality of hard choices in public policy. Immigration is a classic example, as you may notice next time you visit a hospital.
Apart from Cameron and Peter Kellner, president of the YouGov polling organisation, whom he accuses of deliberately marginalising Ukip's impact in polling questions – Kellner is also married to the EU foreign minister, Cathy Ashton, which doesn't help – Farage's most conspicuous target yesterday seemed to be the SNP leader. Apart from Cameron and Peter Kellner, president of the YouGov polling organisation, whom Farage accuses of deliberately marginalising Ukip's impact in polling questions – Kellner is also married to the EU foreign minister, Cathy Ashton, which doesn't help – Farage's most conspicuous target yesterday seemed to be the SNP leader.
This struck me as interesting because both men strike me as similar kinds of operators, fast-talking populists cheerfully exploiting grievances in order to assert an "ourselves alone" message: break Scotland/Britain off from England/Europe and things will be much better. Ah, the heady taste of national independence! Yet Nige doesn't see it that way at all: whereas he is a free-market, small-state man whose policies are rooted in hard-headed pragmatism Salmond has been exposed as living in dreamland. This struck me as interesting because both men strike me as similar kinds of operators: fast-talking populists cheerfully exploiting grievances in order to assert an "ourselves alone" message: break Scotland/Britain off from England/Europe and things will be much better. Ah, the heady taste of national independence! Yet Nige doesn't see it that way at all: whereas he is a free-market, small-state man whose policies are rooted in hard-headed pragmatism, he believes, Salmond has been exposed as living in dreamland.
Interesting? Yet, as at a Ukip manifesto launch, where wheels fall off policies almost from page one – does that sounds a bit Salmondy, too? – he is better at describing what he doesn't like than explaining what he would do. A clean divorce from the EU, followed by a renegotiated relationship (not like Cameron's pathetic renegotiation), is easy. But what about his public spending cuts and his support for the flat-rate tax (31%, though he started talking about "exemptions" on Tuesday). All a bit Toryish, yes? Those on the minimum wage would pay no income tax, and their pay would rise as immigration was curbed, he countered. Interesting? Yet, as at a Ukip manifesto launch, where the wheels fall off policies almost from page one (does that sounds a bit Salmondy, too?), he is better at describing what he doesn't like than explaining what he would do. A clean divorce from the EU, followed by a renegotiated relationship (not like Cameron's pathetic renegotiation), is easy. But what about his public spending cuts and his support for the flat-rate tax (31%, though he started talking about "exemptions" on Tuesday). All a bit Toryish, yes? Those on the minimum wage would pay no income tax, and their pay would rise as immigration was curbed, he countered.
Hmm. As a City of London man himself (Dad was in the metals market for 60 years, grandad for 50, and both his sons are there today), how would he have tackled the City's self-inflicted banking crisis of 2007-09, I asked. Well, he wouldn't have repealed the US Glass–Steagall Act of 1931, which separated retail from investment banking and he wouldn't have messed around, as Gordon Brown did, with the Bank of England's regulatory role, which it has played since 1694: "useless, tick-box bureaucracy" is no substitute. Hmm. As a City of London man himself (dad was in the metals market for 60 years, grandad for 50, and both his sons are there today), how would he have tackled the City's self-inflicted banking crisis of 2007-09, I asked. Well, he wouldn't have repealed the US Glass–Steagall Act of 1931, which separated retail from investment banking and he wouldn't have messed around, as Gordon Brown did, with the Bank of England's regulatory role, which it has played since 1694: "useless, tick-box bureaucracy" is no substitute.
Fine, fine. But be more specific. " Personally, I would have let Northern Rock go bust," he said. Now, that's what I call a free-market answer. Plenty think that sort of approach would have sorted out our mess faster, though plenty more don't, and it didn't do the trick when the Bush White House let Lehman Brothers go down, in 2009. Quite the reverse. Fine, fine. But be more specific. "Personally, I would have let Northern Rock go bust," he said. Now, that's what I call a free-market answer. Plenty think that sort of approach would have sorted out our mess faster, though plenty more don't, and it didn't do the trick when the Bush White House let Lehman Brothers go down in 2009. Quite the reverse.
There will be more such awkward moments if , as Farage predicts, Ukip, which finds it easier to come second than to win, gains a "bridgehead" in 2 May's county council elections, wins a Portsmouth South byelection – which he thinks the Lib Dem Mike Hancock's problems will soon produce – and wins the 2014 EU elections (which it may do). There will be more such awkward moments if, as Farage predicts, Ukip, which finds it easier to come second than to win, gains a "bridgehead" in the county council elections on 2 May, wins a Portsmouth South byelection – which he thinks the Lib Dem Mike Hancock's problems will soon produce – and wins the 2014 EU elections (which it may do).
He is way beyond the protest-vote stage now, and pays tribute to Paddy Ashdown for steering the Lib Dems past the " wasted vote" problem to their present eminence. Look at Canada, where the Tories collapsed to two federal seats in the 90s, a Reform party arose in the populist west, did a reverse takeover of the Tories, and is now in power in Ottawa under Stephen Harper. He is way beyond the protest-vote stage now, and pays tribute to Paddy Ashdown for steering the Lib Dems past the "wasted vote" problem to their present eminence. Look at Canada, where the Tories collapsed to two federal seats in the 90s, a Reform party arose in the populist west, did a reverse takeover of the Tories, and is now in power in Ottawa under Stephen Harper.
That's the Farage dream, though I can't believe he could actually face being prime minister. He is open to Tory defectors, and has had a few drinks with the dissident Nadine Dorries. He also regards Michael Gove as the kind of open-minded Tory Ukip could do business with; Boris is not such a good bet, it seems.That's the Farage dream, though I can't believe he could actually face being prime minister. He is open to Tory defectors, and has had a few drinks with the dissident Nadine Dorries. He also regards Michael Gove as the kind of open-minded Tory Ukip could do business with; Boris is not such a good bet, it seems.
Fasten your seatbelts. Or, as Nigel might say, "Pour yourself a stiff one." Fasten your seatbelts. Or, as Nigel might say, "pour yourself a stiff one."