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Dear politicians, exploiting divisions over cuts could come back to bite you Dear politicians, exploiting divisions over cuts could come back to bite you
(6 months later)
If we Britons want to know what truly polarised politics look like, we need only glance across the Atlantic. Recent polling in the US asked respondents what they thought about repealing the 1975 Public Affairs Act, entirely fictitious legislation that – in two versions of the same question – it was suggested that either President Obama or the Republicans wanted to axe.If we Britons want to know what truly polarised politics look like, we need only glance across the Atlantic. Recent polling in the US asked respondents what they thought about repealing the 1975 Public Affairs Act, entirely fictitious legislation that – in two versions of the same question – it was suggested that either President Obama or the Republicans wanted to axe.
As Mick Blumenthal explains, a small proportion of voters are always willing to offer their views on subjects that they cannot possibly have any real opinion on, but as soon as the hate name Obama was mentioned in connection with the proposed repeal a full 39% of Republicans rushed forward to denounce it. More than a quarter of Democrats, likewise, rush to defend the non-act when it is said to be under Republican threat.As Mick Blumenthal explains, a small proportion of voters are always willing to offer their views on subjects that they cannot possibly have any real opinion on, but as soon as the hate name Obama was mentioned in connection with the proposed repeal a full 39% of Republicans rushed forward to denounce it. More than a quarter of Democrats, likewise, rush to defend the non-act when it is said to be under Republican threat.
This sort of polarisation in the electoral base discourages politicians from reaching out across the partisan aisle, and ultimately leads to the sort of ludicrous stand-offs that now routinely mark every negotiation over America's federal budget. More fundamentally, it spells trouble for a democracy when it loses the ability to debate issues on their merits, instead of warring over tribal lines. Despite the adversarial traditions of Westminster – where the benches are set two swords' length apart – we should be thankful that on some really big issues, the Iraq war being one powerful example, the big divides in the country cut across party lines.This sort of polarisation in the electoral base discourages politicians from reaching out across the partisan aisle, and ultimately leads to the sort of ludicrous stand-offs that now routinely mark every negotiation over America's federal budget. More fundamentally, it spells trouble for a democracy when it loses the ability to debate issues on their merits, instead of warring over tribal lines. Despite the adversarial traditions of Westminster – where the benches are set two swords' length apart – we should be thankful that on some really big issues, the Iraq war being one powerful example, the big divides in the country cut across party lines.
But the intriguing question raised by research prepared for a YouGov conference on Wednesday, at which the Guardian is media partner, is whether the selective sweep of the great recession and the cuts that follow it are doing for British public opinion what the culture wars did for American – namely, dividing the country into two tribes. As I report for the Guardian's Society section, YouGov's trans-national data demonstrates that the "social recession" – that is the anxiety and dislocation that comes with the slump – is hitting much more unequally in the Anglo-Saxon economies than in France and Germany. Those who report losing out financially in Britain's recession are, it seems, finding life tougher in other respects too – and they are also developing different opinions.But the intriguing question raised by research prepared for a YouGov conference on Wednesday, at which the Guardian is media partner, is whether the selective sweep of the great recession and the cuts that follow it are doing for British public opinion what the culture wars did for American – namely, dividing the country into two tribes. As I report for the Guardian's Society section, YouGov's trans-national data demonstrates that the "social recession" – that is the anxiety and dislocation that comes with the slump – is hitting much more unequally in the Anglo-Saxon economies than in France and Germany. Those who report losing out financially in Britain's recession are, it seems, finding life tougher in other respects too – and they are also developing different opinions.
At the start of the week, I reported that YouGov's numbers suggested Britons are less inclined overall than the Germans or the French to demand that the government cracks down on people on benefit. The small print reveals that this surprising finding comes about because 57%of the country that reports suffering substantially from the recession personally is inclined to regard the government as being too harsh on the workless, by an eight point margin. Britons who report having largely escaped the slump, by contrast, incline by a double-digit margin to the view that the government ought to crack down on scroungers.At the start of the week, I reported that YouGov's numbers suggested Britons are less inclined overall than the Germans or the French to demand that the government cracks down on people on benefit. The small print reveals that this surprising finding comes about because 57%of the country that reports suffering substantially from the recession personally is inclined to regard the government as being too harsh on the workless, by an eight point margin. Britons who report having largely escaped the slump, by contrast, incline by a double-digit margin to the view that the government ought to crack down on scroungers.
Parallel differences are found on questions about the role of government – the slump's victims want it to do more redistribution – in resentment towards top pay (it's more marked among those feeling the pinch) and in the faith that hard work can take poor children to the top, a faith that is weaker among those experiencing hard times. In none of the other countries surveyed did individuals' personal experience of the great recession appear to have such a consistent bearing on so many attitudes.Parallel differences are found on questions about the role of government – the slump's victims want it to do more redistribution – in resentment towards top pay (it's more marked among those feeling the pinch) and in the faith that hard work can take poor children to the top, a faith that is weaker among those experiencing hard times. In none of the other countries surveyed did individuals' personal experience of the great recession appear to have such a consistent bearing on so many attitudes.
We decided to explore in more detail how feelings about the cuts in Britain vary across the divide that separates those who are bearing their brunt, and those who are escaping. Those affected, for example, believe the cuts to be unfair by a crushing margin of 71% to 19%, as against a much smaller gap of 49% to 35% among the unaffected who believe that retrenchment is being meted out fairly. In the blame game, those feeling the cuts point the finger the coalition's way, by 36% to 28%, whereas those who have escaped the effects insist by a 53%-17% margin that the responsibility goes back to Labour.We decided to explore in more detail how feelings about the cuts in Britain vary across the divide that separates those who are bearing their brunt, and those who are escaping. Those affected, for example, believe the cuts to be unfair by a crushing margin of 71% to 19%, as against a much smaller gap of 49% to 35% among the unaffected who believe that retrenchment is being meted out fairly. In the blame game, those feeling the cuts point the finger the coalition's way, by 36% to 28%, whereas those who have escaped the effects insist by a 53%-17% margin that the responsibility goes back to Labour.
Some of the politicking that we have witnessed in recent weeks has been designed to exploit a pre-existing cuts chasm, although the new polling suggests that it may instead serve to widen it further. A notable example was George Osborne's decision to link the case of Mick Philpott to the debate about benefit cuts. Although inevitably divisive, this controversial move won the backing of the public as a whole by 48% to 41%. Underneath those headline figures, however, we find that those who are feeling the cuts themselves felt that the chancellor had got it wrong by 49% to 43%, whereas those who are escaping the pain judged his intervention right by an emphatic 58% to 35% margin.Some of the politicking that we have witnessed in recent weeks has been designed to exploit a pre-existing cuts chasm, although the new polling suggests that it may instead serve to widen it further. A notable example was George Osborne's decision to link the case of Mick Philpott to the debate about benefit cuts. Although inevitably divisive, this controversial move won the backing of the public as a whole by 48% to 41%. Underneath those headline figures, however, we find that those who are feeling the cuts themselves felt that the chancellor had got it wrong by 49% to 43%, whereas those who are escaping the pain judged his intervention right by an emphatic 58% to 35% margin.
YouGov's trove of research for Wednesday's conference strongly suggests that the great recession renders British opinion ripe for exploitation by divisive political strategists. My message to the likes of Osborne, however, is to pause and glance across the Atlantic at the result. What starts out as a clever partisan wheeze eventually produces a politics that cannot get anything done.YouGov's trove of research for Wednesday's conference strongly suggests that the great recession renders British opinion ripe for exploitation by divisive political strategists. My message to the likes of Osborne, however, is to pause and glance across the Atlantic at the result. What starts out as a clever partisan wheeze eventually produces a politics that cannot get anything done.
• YouGov interviews were conducted online between 11 and 12 April, 2013, and total sample size was 1,982 British adults. The data has been weighted and the results are representative of all British adults aged 18 or over.• YouGov interviews were conducted online between 11 and 12 April, 2013, and total sample size was 1,982 British adults. The data has been weighted and the results are representative of all British adults aged 18 or over.
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