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European Central Bank Holds Rate Steady European Central Bank Holds Rate Steady
(35 minutes later)
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, as policymakers groped for other ways to rebuild confidence shaken by events in Cyprus.FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, as policymakers groped for other ways to rebuild confidence shaken by events in Cyprus.
The E.C.B. governing council left the key interest rate at 0.75 percent, as expected, following its monthly monetary policy meeting.The E.C.B. governing council left the key interest rate at 0.75 percent, as expected, following its monthly monetary policy meeting.
But the focus is likely to be on Cyprus rather than the official interest rate. At a press conference later in the day, Mario Draghi, the E.C.B. president, faces pressure to reassure financial markets that he will not let a banking crisis on the island become a threat to the integrity of the euro zone. In keeping with its mandate to ensure price stability in the 17 countries that use the euro, the bank’s president, Mario Draghi, said that in coming weeks the E.C.B. would closely monitor the outlook for prices.
“Mr. Draghi’s press conference will likely be dominated by Cyprus and could be one of his most important to date as the E.C.B. tries to restore some confidence,” analysts at Nomura said in a note to investors before the meeting. With inflation already below the E.C.B.’s target of about 2 percent, the statement could be interpreted as a sign that policymakers are more open to cutting rates in order to prevent deflation, a broad decline in prices that can be more destructive than inflation.
Mr. Draghi also said, however, that risks to prices stability are “broadly balanced.”
Before the meeting, analysts said the focus of the day was likely to be on Cyprus rather than the official interest rate. Mr. Draghi faces pressure to reassure financial markets that he will not let a banking crisis on the island become a threat to the integrity of the euro zone.
Since Mr. Draghi’s last press conference a month ago, the second-largest bank in Cyprus has been shut down, wealthy depositors in Cyprus banks face huge losses on their holdings, and the country has imposed restrictions on large transfers of money to prevent a flight of capital.Since Mr. Draghi’s last press conference a month ago, the second-largest bank in Cyprus has been shut down, wealthy depositors in Cyprus banks face huge losses on their holdings, and the country has imposed restrictions on large transfers of money to prevent a flight of capital.
The E.C.B. was a key player in events, in effect threatening to withdraw support for Cyprus banks unless local political leaders agreed to a bailout that would impose much of the cost on rich depositors, many of them Russians.The E.C.B. was a key player in events, in effect threatening to withdraw support for Cyprus banks unless local political leaders agreed to a bailout that would impose much of the cost on rich depositors, many of them Russians.
The turmoil in the small island nation has begun to blunt business confidence in the euro zone, threatening a recovery that was already shaky.The turmoil in the small island nation has begun to blunt business confidence in the euro zone, threatening a recovery that was already shaky.
The E.C.B. governing council probably concluded that a cut in the main interest rate, which is already at a record low, would not have much effect on confidence or the supply of credit in weaker countries. Instead, Mr. Draghi will probably reiterate that the E.C.B. will continue to offer unlimited credit to solvent banks and do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Mr. Draghi is also under pressure to reassure investors and euro zone citizens that the E.C.B. will act to prevent an exodus of deposits from other weak countries like Italy or Spain, where banks are also troubled. A bank run in those countries would pose a much more serious threat to the euro than tiny Cyprus.
Mr. Draghi may also seek to reassure investors and euro zone citizens that the E.C.B. would act to prevent an exodus of deposits from other weak countries like Italy or Spain, where banks are also troubled. A bank run in those countries would pose a much more serious threat to the euro than tiny Cyprus.
There are limits, however, to what the E.C.B. can do without violating its mandate. The E.C.B. can supply banks with cheap loans, but it cannot offer cash to replenish depleted bank reserves.There are limits, however, to what the E.C.B. can do without violating its mandate. The E.C.B. can supply banks with cheap loans, but it cannot offer cash to replenish depleted bank reserves.
Mr. Draghi could call for faster progress to create a so-called banking union to strengthen the ability of the euro zone to prevent and withstand crises. While European leaders have agreed to give the E.C.B. power to oversee euro zone banks, they remain divided on measures to protect bank depositors and to deal with failed financial institutions.Mr. Draghi could call for faster progress to create a so-called banking union to strengthen the ability of the euro zone to prevent and withstand crises. While European leaders have agreed to give the E.C.B. power to oversee euro zone banks, they remain divided on measures to protect bank depositors and to deal with failed financial institutions.
Events in Cyprus, which were unprecedented in the euro zone, have added urgency to the debate about a banking union.Events in Cyprus, which were unprecedented in the euro zone, have added urgency to the debate about a banking union.
“The ongoing busting of euro area taboos makes it more urgent to deliver economic recovery, as well as to accelerate banking union,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a note before the meeting.“The ongoing busting of euro area taboos makes it more urgent to deliver economic recovery, as well as to accelerate banking union,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a note before the meeting.
Data from Markit, a research concern, confirmed the continued downturn in the euro zone on Thursday, as a survey of business activity showed a marked drop in France and a stalling of growth in Germany, the largest and most robust euro zone economy.Data from Markit, a research concern, confirmed the continued downturn in the euro zone on Thursday, as a survey of business activity showed a marked drop in France and a stalling of growth in Germany, the largest and most robust euro zone economy.
The index fell to 46.4 in March, down from 47.9 in February and slightly lower than a preliminary reading of 46.5 two weeks ago, Markit said. The index has been below 50, the level that separates contraction from growth, in all but one of the 20 previous months.The index fell to 46.4 in March, down from 47.9 in February and slightly lower than a preliminary reading of 46.5 two weeks ago, Markit said. The index has been below 50, the level that separates contraction from growth, in all but one of the 20 previous months.
The figure for France was 41.3 in March, the lowest level since February 2009 and down from 43.7 in February.The figure for France was 41.3 in March, the lowest level since February 2009 and down from 43.7 in February.
Germany’s economy, while still nominally growing, slowed to a crawl in March, with the index falling to 50.6 from 53.3 in February.Germany’s economy, while still nominally growing, slowed to a crawl in March, with the index falling to 50.6 from 53.3 in February.
The data, compiled from surveys of thousands of companies including banks, hotels and restauruants, showed that order books in Europe shrank in March at the fastest pace in six months.The data, compiled from surveys of thousands of companies including banks, hotels and restauruants, showed that order books in Europe shrank in March at the fastest pace in six months.
Jack Ewing reported from New YorkJack Ewing reported from New York