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| How will the next 10 years shape the BBC's output? | How will the next 10 years shape the BBC's output? |
| (6 months later) | |
| Television | Television |
| BBC1 will continue to be the nation's favourite channel, but an increasing proportion of the corporation's TV output will be watched on-demand and on the move. The decline in so-called "linear" viewing means that children's channel CBBC has become on-demand only, with the money saved from distributing the service via TV masts, satellite and cable ploughed back into programme-making. The channel's most family-friendly hits are given an airing on BBC2's increasingly popular (and expanding) afternoon repeats service. | BBC1 will continue to be the nation's favourite channel, but an increasing proportion of the corporation's TV output will be watched on-demand and on the move. The decline in so-called "linear" viewing means that children's channel CBBC has become on-demand only, with the money saved from distributing the service via TV masts, satellite and cable ploughed back into programme-making. The channel's most family-friendly hits are given an airing on BBC2's increasingly popular (and expanding) afternoon repeats service. |
| Live TV won't die – far from it – with audiences of more than 10 million tuning into the final of BBC1's Strictly Bake Off, presented by the corporation's veteran face of light entertainment, Graham Norton. New technology means viewers can now watch it from the perspective of the bakers and dancers taking part on the BBC's 3D channel. | Live TV won't die – far from it – with audiences of more than 10 million tuning into the final of BBC1's Strictly Bake Off, presented by the corporation's veteran face of light entertainment, Graham Norton. New technology means viewers can now watch it from the perspective of the bakers and dancers taking part on the BBC's 3D channel. |
| "A strong BBC1 creates a healthy glow around the whole of the BBC," said Jana Bennett, the BBC's former Vision director. "Television content will still be in great demand in a decade's time, but will the BBC need the exact same array of distribution platforms? It would be a mistake to assume TV channels won't be needed, but the trick will be how they work in tandem with different types of mobile technology." | "A strong BBC1 creates a healthy glow around the whole of the BBC," said Jana Bennett, the BBC's former Vision director. "Television content will still be in great demand in a decade's time, but will the BBC need the exact same array of distribution platforms? It would be a mistake to assume TV channels won't be needed, but the trick will be how they work in tandem with different types of mobile technology." |
| The mantra of "fewer, better" will become a watchword across the BBC's output – as will collaboration with other broadcasters: a reinvented Call The Midwife is relocated to the Lower East Side of Manhattan. | The mantra of "fewer, better" will become a watchword across the BBC's output – as will collaboration with other broadcasters: a reinvented Call The Midwife is relocated to the Lower East Side of Manhattan. |
| Meanwhile, in sport, particularly controversial was the decision to share Wimbledon rights with Sky. | Meanwhile, in sport, particularly controversial was the decision to share Wimbledon rights with Sky. |
| The phenomenon of the "second screen" – still niche in 2012 – will have become commonplace with the growth of internet-connected or "smart" TV sets, allowing viewers to check Twitter or Facebook and browse the internet while watching traditional channels or on demand programming. | The phenomenon of the "second screen" – still niche in 2012 – will have become commonplace with the growth of internet-connected or "smart" TV sets, allowing viewers to check Twitter or Facebook and browse the internet while watching traditional channels or on demand programming. |
| "Multi-screening will have become a well-established behaviour, with people perfectly comfortable chatting, playing, researching and even purchasing via an accompanying screen as they watch TV," said Tess Alps, executive chair of the commercial TV marketing group Thinkbox, as people watch television in every room of the home. | "Multi-screening will have become a well-established behaviour, with people perfectly comfortable chatting, playing, researching and even purchasing via an accompanying screen as they watch TV," said Tess Alps, executive chair of the commercial TV marketing group Thinkbox, as people watch television in every room of the home. |
| Radio | Radio |
| A 56-year-old Sir Chris Evans will still be presenting the nation's favourite breakfast show on Radio 2. | A 56-year-old Sir Chris Evans will still be presenting the nation's favourite breakfast show on Radio 2. |
| The dominant force in UK radio today, the ageing population means Radio 2 will be even more popular by 2022, on course for 20 million listeners a week. | The dominant force in UK radio today, the ageing population means Radio 2 will be even more popular by 2022, on course for 20 million listeners a week. |
| However, in spite of efforts to woo younger listeners with a revamped Radio 1 (Nick Grimshaw will be axed from its breakfast show in 2020 for being too old), younger listeners are expected to desert the medium. Radio 1 will find itself under pressure not just from commercial rivals such as Capital, but the next generation of smartphone apps and online music sites such as Spotify, luring away its teen and twentysomething audience. | However, in spite of efforts to woo younger listeners with a revamped Radio 1 (Nick Grimshaw will be axed from its breakfast show in 2020 for being too old), younger listeners are expected to desert the medium. Radio 1 will find itself under pressure not just from commercial rivals such as Capital, but the next generation of smartphone apps and online music sites such as Spotify, luring away its teen and twentysomething audience. |
| "2022 might be a year when BBC radio wonders where the young people have gone," predicted James Cridland, former BBC audiovisual product manager, now managing director of industry website Media UK. | "2022 might be a year when BBC radio wonders where the young people have gone," predicted James Cridland, former BBC audiovisual product manager, now managing director of industry website Media UK. |
| The majority of listening to BBC (and commercial) radio will be on digital platforms such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB) radio, but there will have been no equivalent of digital TV switchover; the BBC's national stations will continue to be broadcast on FM, reflecting the 100 million-plus analogue sets still in people's homes and cars. | The majority of listening to BBC (and commercial) radio will be on digital platforms such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB) radio, but there will have been no equivalent of digital TV switchover; the BBC's national stations will continue to be broadcast on FM, reflecting the 100 million-plus analogue sets still in people's homes and cars. |
| The ageing population will also mean audience rises for Radio 4 and BBC local radio, which is not as local as it once was due to further budget cuts. | The ageing population will also mean audience rises for Radio 4 and BBC local radio, which is not as local as it once was due to further budget cuts. |
| And experts predict by 2022 there will also be a second woman, at least, among the five regular presenters of Radio 4's Today, amid widespread disbelief that a decade earlier there was still only one woman presenter on the corporation's top news programme. | And experts predict by 2022 there will also be a second woman, at least, among the five regular presenters of Radio 4's Today, amid widespread disbelief that a decade earlier there was still only one woman presenter on the corporation's top news programme. |
| Digital | Digital |
| Watching Doctor Who or Top Gear on iPlayer may already be second nature to younger viewers but the next decade will see TV viewing habits generally adapt to the digital age. Fortunately for Tony Hall, the BBC already has a robust digital presence thanks to the legacy of previous director generals John Birt, Greg Dyke and Mark Thompson. But the next 10 years will see viewing habits change even more rapidly. | Watching Doctor Who or Top Gear on iPlayer may already be second nature to younger viewers but the next decade will see TV viewing habits generally adapt to the digital age. Fortunately for Tony Hall, the BBC already has a robust digital presence thanks to the legacy of previous director generals John Birt, Greg Dyke and Mark Thompson. But the next 10 years will see viewing habits change even more rapidly. |
| Smartphone-like apps will become as prominent on your internet-connected or "smart" TV set as they are on the Apple iPhone, as top of the range sets include games like Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja alongside traditional channels such as BBC1 and BBC2. | Smartphone-like apps will become as prominent on your internet-connected or "smart" TV set as they are on the Apple iPhone, as top of the range sets include games like Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja alongside traditional channels such as BBC1 and BBC2. |
| Anthony Rose, the former BBC iPlayer executive and co-founder of TV app form Zeebox, said: "Better user interface designs, the arrival of Netflix, and arrival of catch-up TV from other broadcasters, not just iPlayer, will change that, and you'll soon be using the apps area of your TV almost as much as you watch live TV." | Anthony Rose, the former BBC iPlayer executive and co-founder of TV app form Zeebox, said: "Better user interface designs, the arrival of Netflix, and arrival of catch-up TV from other broadcasters, not just iPlayer, will change that, and you'll soon be using the apps area of your TV almost as much as you watch live TV." |
| Internet-connected TVs are expected to become mainstream, expanding from 10% in 2012 to 50% of all households in 2020 according to forecasts by Enders Analysis. It expects internet-connected viewing – on smart TVs, PCs, smartphones and tablets – to rise from 1.5% of total viewing to 5% in the same period. | Internet-connected TVs are expected to become mainstream, expanding from 10% in 2012 to 50% of all households in 2020 according to forecasts by Enders Analysis. It expects internet-connected viewing – on smart TVs, PCs, smartphones and tablets – to rise from 1.5% of total viewing to 5% in the same period. |
| Hall is likely to favour the BBC's ambitious "Project Barcelona", the iTunes-style service that will allow viewers to buy programmes minutes after they have aired on TV. It goes hand-in-hand with another project, dubbed "the Ddigital public space", aimed at opening 1m hours of BBC archive programming, 10m photosgraphic skills and the world's largest sheet music collection to the public. | Hall is likely to favour the BBC's ambitious "Project Barcelona", the iTunes-style service that will allow viewers to buy programmes minutes after they have aired on TV. It goes hand-in-hand with another project, dubbed "the Ddigital public space", aimed at opening 1m hours of BBC archive programming, 10m photosgraphic skills and the world's largest sheet music collection to the public. |
| But there is likely to be more: fans of EastEnders may be able to see the storyline through the eyes of their favourite character by simply pointing, waving or swiping a smartphone. The red button and electronic programming guides will begin to seem antiquated as more viewers control their TV from a smartphone, tablet computer or augmented reality glasses such as Google Glass. The question, then, for the BBC is whether it can keep up. | But there is likely to be more: fans of EastEnders may be able to see the storyline through the eyes of their favourite character by simply pointing, waving or swiping a smartphone. The red button and electronic programming guides will begin to seem antiquated as more viewers control their TV from a smartphone, tablet computer or augmented reality glasses such as Google Glass. The question, then, for the BBC is whether it can keep up. |
| Funding | Funding |
| Tony Hall's success or failure in persuading the government of the continuing relevance of the BBC in the digital era in upcoming royal charter and licence fee renewal negotiations will determine whether the corporation will still have recognisable scale and funding in its centenary year, 2022. | Tony Hall's success or failure in persuading the government of the continuing relevance of the BBC in the digital era in upcoming royal charter and licence fee renewal negotiations will determine whether the corporation will still have recognisable scale and funding in its centenary year, 2022. |
| Hall inherits predecessor Mark Thompson's six-year licence fee freeze at £145.50 a year per household, hurriedly negotiated in the early months of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. It meant the BBC accepted a 16% cut in real-terms funding, pegging licence fee income at about £3.6bn until 2017 while taking on extra funding commitments, including the World Service. | Hall inherits predecessor Mark Thompson's six-year licence fee freeze at £145.50 a year per household, hurriedly negotiated in the early months of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. It meant the BBC accepted a 16% cut in real-terms funding, pegging licence fee income at about £3.6bn until 2017 while taking on extra funding commitments, including the World Service. |
| "Many will say the existing deal is not half bad, that the BBC has to be in sync with where the world is and in 2015 [when negotiations begin in earnest] the world will still be a pretty harsh place," says Dawn Airey, the former BSkyB and Channel 5 executive. | "Many will say the existing deal is not half bad, that the BBC has to be in sync with where the world is and in 2015 [when negotiations begin in earnest] the world will still be a pretty harsh place," says Dawn Airey, the former BSkyB and Channel 5 executive. |
| "A lot will depend on who is in government and how the BBC is perceived to have performed. An inflationary increase is a lovely aspiration but flat will be a result." | "A lot will depend on who is in government and how the BBC is perceived to have performed. An inflationary increase is a lovely aspiration but flat will be a result." |
| Commercial rivals including BSkyB – which is expanding its original UK output in heartland BBC genres such as high-end drama, comedy and documentaries – are likely to argue more strongly than ever that the corporation's scope and funding should be cut. They will once again deploy the market failure argument: that a public service broadcaster should only do things that commercial rivals are unable to provide – and may gain more traction than previously. | Commercial rivals including BSkyB – which is expanding its original UK output in heartland BBC genres such as high-end drama, comedy and documentaries – are likely to argue more strongly than ever that the corporation's scope and funding should be cut. They will once again deploy the market failure argument: that a public service broadcaster should only do things that commercial rivals are unable to provide – and may gain more traction than previously. |
| "That will all come up again – a weakened BBC means opportunity for others – but I'm sure the corporation will see off the most serious challenges," says Airey. "There is always going to be death, taxes and the BBC." | "That will all come up again – a weakened BBC means opportunity for others – but I'm sure the corporation will see off the most serious challenges," says Airey. "There is always going to be death, taxes and the BBC." |
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