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New US doubts on Iraq government New US doubts on Iraq government
(about 3 hours later)
A new study by US intelligence agencies will express serious doubts about the ability of Iraqi leader Nouri Maliki to unify his country, US media report. A new study by US intelligence agencies has cast fresh doubt about the ability of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to bring about political unity in Iraq.
Analysts say the Iraqi government will become more fragile in the next six to 12 months, the Associated Press says. The National Intelligence Estimate says the Iraqi government will become more fragile in the next six to 12 months.
The New York Times cites officials who say the study gives a bleak outlook on Iraqi politics but that the US military has made progress in cutting violence. The gloomy assessment comes as calls grow in the US for Mr Maliki to step down, though President George W Bush on Wednesday expressed support for him.
It comes a day after President George W Bush expressed support for Mr Maliki. The study did however say US forces had made progress in curbing the violence.
Parts of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq are due to be released later on Thursday. Levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq
The 10-page document represents the assessments of all 16 US intelligence agencies. The newly declassified document, the collective assessment of 16 US intelligence agencies, states bluntly that "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively".
'More precarious' The 10-page document goes on to warn that the situation is likely to worsen further.
The Associated Press news agency, which has obtained an advance copy, said the report concludes that "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively". "The IC (intelligence community) assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition" as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties.
class="" href="/1/hi/world/middle_east/6958440.stm">Why US unhappy with Maliki 'Uneven improvements'
Analysts predict that the Iraqi government will "become more precarious" because of criticism of the government by top Shia, Sunni and Kurdish figures, the reports say. It also expresses grave doubts that Mr Maliki will be able to overcome sectarian divisions in Iraq and meet political benchmarks on unity.
They also express grave doubts that PM Nouri Maliki will be able to overcome sectarian divisions in Iraq and meet political benchmarks on unity, AP cites the report as saying. class="" href="/1/hi/world/middle_east/6958440.stm">Why US unhappy with Maliki "Levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance," the study said.
Unless there is "a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," the political compromises needed for "sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge," the report said.
The intelligence agencies did say that there had been "measurable but uneven improvements" in Iraq's security since January, following the recent surge in US troop numbers, but that the level of violence remains high.
White House argument
The Iraqi Security Services have performed "adequately" alongside US forces but they are not capable of conducting operations without support from coalition forces, the study adds.The Iraqi Security Services have performed "adequately" alongside US forces but they are not capable of conducting operations without support from coalition forces, the study adds.
The report's release comes amid growing calls from senior Democrats in Washington for Mr Maliki to step down.
Mr Bush has said Mr Maliki was a "good man with a difficult job"But, as Mr Bush seeks to make the case for US troops remaining in Iraq, the White House is likely to focus less on the political failings than on the security challenges, in particular the report's conclusion that Iraq's security forces are still unable to operate without outside help, the BBC's James Coomarasamy in Washington says.
Observers suggest the report could lend support to the Bush administration's argument that pulling out precipitously would lead to chaos and violent upheaval.Observers suggest the report could lend support to the Bush administration's argument that pulling out precipitously would lead to chaos and violent upheaval.
Mr Bush defended his Iraq policy on Wednesday, comparing current calls for withdrawal from Iraq with what happened at the end of the Vietnam War in 1975.Mr Bush defended his Iraq policy on Wednesday, comparing current calls for withdrawal from Iraq with what happened at the end of the Vietnam War in 1975.
During a speech to veterans, he called Mr Maliki a "good man with a difficult job".During a speech to veterans, he called Mr Maliki a "good man with a difficult job".
A progress report is due in mid-September from General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, on the effectiveness of the recent surge in US troop numbers in tackling the violence there.A progress report is due in mid-September from General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, on the effectiveness of the recent surge in US troop numbers in tackling the violence there.