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Share buybacks are for dummies – unless you follow the Wolfson rules | Share buybacks are for dummies – unless you follow the Wolfson rules |
(6 months later) | |
There was an excellent passage in Lord Wolfson's review of Next's annual results that could have been titled "Share Buybacks for Dummies". | There was an excellent passage in Lord Wolfson's review of Next's annual results that could have been titled "Share Buybacks for Dummies". |
It should be required reading in the boardroom of any company contemplating a buyback. Why? Because Next was a pioneer in this field and is virtually alone in making this form of distribution of cash work effectively for shareholders, as the rise in the firm's share price from £5 in 1999 to £43 today well illustrates. | It should be required reading in the boardroom of any company contemplating a buyback. Why? Because Next was a pioneer in this field and is virtually alone in making this form of distribution of cash work effectively for shareholders, as the rise in the firm's share price from £5 in 1999 to £43 today well illustrates. |
Other companies, it often seems, assume any buyback that enhances earnings per share must automatically be beneficial. It's not that simple, as Wolfson shows. | Other companies, it often seems, assume any buyback that enhances earnings per share must automatically be beneficial. It's not that simple, as Wolfson shows. |
He offers six rules. Even number one, about ensuring enhancement to earnings, carries a qualification. A buyback must also a make healthy "equivalent rate of return" (EER) – in other words, a return better than could be achieved from investing the cash in an alternative investment. | He offers six rules. Even number one, about ensuring enhancement to earnings, carries a qualification. A buyback must also a make healthy "equivalent rate of return" (EER) – in other words, a return better than could be achieved from investing the cash in an alternative investment. |
In the case of Next, buy-backs would enhance earnings beyond £60 a share. But, applying the EER calculation, Wolfson says Next would be "less enthusiastic" about buybacks if returns dropped much below 9%, equivalent to a share price of about £45. | In the case of Next, buy-backs would enhance earnings beyond £60 a share. But, applying the EER calculation, Wolfson says Next would be "less enthusiastic" about buybacks if returns dropped much below 9%, equivalent to a share price of about £45. |
"So to a certain extent the share price provides a natural moderator of a disciplined buyback programme," he concludes. | "So to a certain extent the share price provides a natural moderator of a disciplined buyback programme," he concludes. |
If only other companies were as disciplined. Most never mention EER and most breach Wolfson's fifth rule – "be consistent". Next has bought back shares every year for a decade, halving the number in issue. | If only other companies were as disciplined. Most never mention EER and most breach Wolfson's fifth rule – "be consistent". Next has bought back shares every year for a decade, halving the number in issue. |
By contrast, most boards conduct one big splurge over the course of a year or so. That's usually pointless, especially if the core business doesn't have clear prospects of long-term growth (rule six) and rising earnings per share. | By contrast, most boards conduct one big splurge over the course of a year or so. That's usually pointless, especially if the core business doesn't have clear prospects of long-term growth (rule six) and rising earnings per share. |
Frankly, the number of companies that meet all Wolfson's criteria is probably tiny. That's why so many – Marks & Spencer and Home Retail being two prime offenders in the retail sector – end up buying shares at prices that soon look silly. | Frankly, the number of companies that meet all Wolfson's criteria is probably tiny. That's why so many – Marks & Spencer and Home Retail being two prime offenders in the retail sector – end up buying shares at prices that soon look silly. |
In fact, rather than merely reading Wolfson's rules, it ought to made compulsory for boards launching buybacks to show how they measure up against them. | In fact, rather than merely reading Wolfson's rules, it ought to made compulsory for boards launching buybacks to show how they measure up against them. |
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