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Alex Salmond aims to convert Scottish sporting pride into referendum victory Alex Salmond aims to convert Scottish sporting pride into referendum victory
(6 months later)
We have known since Alex Salmond's landslide Scottish election victory in May 2011, when he won the first overall majority at Holyrood, that a referendum on Scotland's independence was inevitable. The question was, why wait until late 2014 to put to voters that six-word question: should Scotland be an independent country?We have known since Alex Salmond's landslide Scottish election victory in May 2011, when he won the first overall majority at Holyrood, that a referendum on Scotland's independence was inevitable. The question was, why wait until late 2014 to put to voters that six-word question: should Scotland be an independent country?
Was Salmond just playing for time, knowing he faced a substantial task in trying to persuade a sceptical or at best indifferent Scottish electorate to support leaving the UK? Or was he, as many generals would advise, just being careful to select the best battlefield and the best time to fight?Was Salmond just playing for time, knowing he faced a substantial task in trying to persuade a sceptical or at best indifferent Scottish electorate to support leaving the UK? Or was he, as many generals would advise, just being careful to select the best battlefield and the best time to fight?
Both are true. In 2014 Scotland will be celebrating a rare collection of emblematic cultural events putting the country on the global stage. It will host a second "year of homecoming", when expatriate Scots and Scotophiles will be urged to return.Both are true. In 2014 Scotland will be celebrating a rare collection of emblematic cultural events putting the country on the global stage. It will host a second "year of homecoming", when expatriate Scots and Scotophiles will be urged to return.
For 10 days from 23 July Glasgow will host the Commonwealth Games for the first time, with Scotland represented – in sporting terms at least – as a separate nation. There Salmond may hope that Scottish stars such as Sir Chris Hoy and the swimmer Hannah Miley will triumph, neutralising the UK-boosting successes of last year's Olympic Games in London. His opponents believe that event, particularly Danny Boyle's opening ceremony, exemplified the strengths and resilience of the union.For 10 days from 23 July Glasgow will host the Commonwealth Games for the first time, with Scotland represented – in sporting terms at least – as a separate nation. There Salmond may hope that Scottish stars such as Sir Chris Hoy and the swimmer Hannah Miley will triumph, neutralising the UK-boosting successes of last year's Olympic Games in London. His opponents believe that event, particularly Danny Boyle's opening ceremony, exemplified the strengths and resilience of the union.
In late September Scotland will host golf's Ryder Cup at Gleneagles. By choosing a referendum date just after the Commonwealth Games and in the buildup to the biggest event in a sport Scotland invented, Salmond hopes burgeoning national pride can be converted into victory.In late September Scotland will host golf's Ryder Cup at Gleneagles. By choosing a referendum date just after the Commonwealth Games and in the buildup to the biggest event in a sport Scotland invented, Salmond hopes burgeoning national pride can be converted into victory.
2014 will also be the 700th anniversary of Robert the Bruce's victory over the English army at Bannockburn near Stirling. For many nationalists Bannockburn is a symbol of a Scotland's insistence on its right to self-determination and the notion that Scotland's barons believed that their rulers needed a popular mandate to be legitimate, as set out in the Declaration of Arbroath signed in 1320.2014 will also be the 700th anniversary of Robert the Bruce's victory over the English army at Bannockburn near Stirling. For many nationalists Bannockburn is a symbol of a Scotland's insistence on its right to self-determination and the notion that Scotland's barons believed that their rulers needed a popular mandate to be legitimate, as set out in the Declaration of Arbroath signed in 1320.
However, Salmond is keen to avoid overstating the Bannockburn connection, in part due to the Braveheart effect. That form of nationalism is toxic to his narrative that Scotland welcomes all nationalities and people. His is a civic, not ethnic nationalism.However, Salmond is keen to avoid overstating the Bannockburn connection, in part due to the Braveheart effect. That form of nationalism is toxic to his narrative that Scotland welcomes all nationalities and people. His is a civic, not ethnic nationalism.
There remains a fundamental problem for Salmond, the SNP and the Yes Scotland pro-independence movement. Support for independence has remained stubbornly fixed at about a third of all voters.There remains a fundamental problem for Salmond, the SNP and the Yes Scotland pro-independence movement. Support for independence has remained stubbornly fixed at about a third of all voters.
While the gap between the yes and no camps may shrink to perhaps 14 points in some polls, in many it remains as wide as 20 or so. The largest and most authoritative Scottish opinion survey, the annual Scottish social attitudes survey last year put support for independence at its joint lowest since 1999, at 23%.While the gap between the yes and no camps may shrink to perhaps 14 points in some polls, in many it remains as wide as 20 or so. The largest and most authoritative Scottish opinion survey, the annual Scottish social attitudes survey last year put support for independence at its joint lowest since 1999, at 23%.
Salmond has built his own paradox: his ability to champion Scotland's cause within the UK has made Scots less inclined to want independence, despite the overwhelming unpopularity of the UK government's welfare cuts, its austerity programme and its lack of mandate from Scottish voters.Salmond has built his own paradox: his ability to champion Scotland's cause within the UK has made Scots less inclined to want independence, despite the overwhelming unpopularity of the UK government's welfare cuts, its austerity programme and its lack of mandate from Scottish voters.
But it is that government on which Salmond is pegging his hopes. The bedroom tax, universal credit and cuts in disability benefits are meat and drink to the independence campaigners. They insist, as Salmond said in announcing the referendum date, that it is proof positive that a London government is bad news for Scotland.But it is that government on which Salmond is pegging his hopes. The bedroom tax, universal credit and cuts in disability benefits are meat and drink to the independence campaigners. They insist, as Salmond said in announcing the referendum date, that it is proof positive that a London government is bad news for Scotland.
Salmond put it like this: "A no vote means a future of governments we didn't vote for imposing cuts and policies we don't support. A yes vote means a future where we can be absolutely certain, 100% certain, that the people of Scotland will get the government they vote for."Salmond put it like this: "A no vote means a future of governments we didn't vote for imposing cuts and policies we don't support. A yes vote means a future where we can be absolutely certain, 100% certain, that the people of Scotland will get the government they vote for."
The challenge for Salmond is to convert that rhetoric into popular support. Time is running out: with each month that passes, his task gets greater.The challenge for Salmond is to convert that rhetoric into popular support. Time is running out: with each month that passes, his task gets greater.
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