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| Obama's visit to Israel will do nothing to restore Arab faith | Obama's visit to Israel will do nothing to restore Arab faith |
| (8 days later) | |
| Arab expectations of Barack Obama, in the spotlight in Jerusalem and Ramallah, have been declining steadily since his famous speech in Cairo in June 2009. Later presidential addresses failed to rekindle hopes that he would adopt significantly different policies on the bitter conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Nothing suggests that is about to change. | Arab expectations of Barack Obama, in the spotlight in Jerusalem and Ramallah, have been declining steadily since his famous speech in Cairo in June 2009. Later presidential addresses failed to rekindle hopes that he would adopt significantly different policies on the bitter conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Nothing suggests that is about to change. |
| Excitement in the early months of Obama's first term stemmed largely from the fact that he was not George Bush, friend of Israel, architect of the invasion of Iraq and the "global war on terror". But that faded because Obama blinked first in the confrontation over West Bank settlements with Binyamin Netanyahu. Then came the unanticipated dramas and distractions of the Arab spring. | Excitement in the early months of Obama's first term stemmed largely from the fact that he was not George Bush, friend of Israel, architect of the invasion of Iraq and the "global war on terror". But that faded because Obama blinked first in the confrontation over West Bank settlements with Binyamin Netanyahu. Then came the unanticipated dramas and distractions of the Arab spring. |
| Across the region, the mood has not improved since the Israeli elections in January: no one seriously expected that a new coalition under Netanyahu would prove more amenable than the previous one to making the concessions needed for an independent, viable Palestinian state. Furthermore, the paralysing rift between the PLO's Mahmoud Abbas and the Islamists of Hamas who rule Gaza shows no sign of being healed. | Across the region, the mood has not improved since the Israeli elections in January: no one seriously expected that a new coalition under Netanyahu would prove more amenable than the previous one to making the concessions needed for an independent, viable Palestinian state. Furthermore, the paralysing rift between the PLO's Mahmoud Abbas and the Islamists of Hamas who rule Gaza shows no sign of being healed. |
| So, unusually for such a high-profile trip, expectations have been kept deliberately low, with the Obama administration emphasising that it does not have a new peace plan to promote. Instead the goal is to assure the Israeli people of "unwavering" US support while reiterating its commitment to the Palestinians – referred to only as "neighbours" in the president's arrival statement. | So, unusually for such a high-profile trip, expectations have been kept deliberately low, with the Obama administration emphasising that it does not have a new peace plan to promote. Instead the goal is to assure the Israeli people of "unwavering" US support while reiterating its commitment to the Palestinians – referred to only as "neighbours" in the president's arrival statement. |
| The tent camp set up to protest against the relentless expansion of settlements as Obama inspected Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile battery was one pointedly sceptical response. | The tent camp set up to protest against the relentless expansion of settlements as Obama inspected Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile battery was one pointedly sceptical response. |
| Beyond the immediate vicinity, there are other enormous unresolved problems. Syria, mired in war, is the biggest; Iran and its nuclear ambitions another. Next week's Arab League summit in the Qatari capital Doha will struggle with both. | Beyond the immediate vicinity, there are other enormous unresolved problems. Syria, mired in war, is the biggest; Iran and its nuclear ambitions another. Next week's Arab League summit in the Qatari capital Doha will struggle with both. |
| US diplomacy on the peace process is at a standstill, though news that John Kerry, the secretary of state, will return to the region once the president has left, suggests a new effort in the making. The most likely basis remains the 11-year-old Arab peace initiative – an offer of comprehensive recognition of Israel in its 1967 borders if the Palestinian issue is justly resolved. | US diplomacy on the peace process is at a standstill, though news that John Kerry, the secretary of state, will return to the region once the president has left, suggests a new effort in the making. The most likely basis remains the 11-year-old Arab peace initiative – an offer of comprehensive recognition of Israel in its 1967 borders if the Palestinian issue is justly resolved. |
| Important Arab governments such as Egypt have their own domestic preoccupations but understand that jump-starting long-stalled talks may not be a good idea – not least because there is a risk that Abbas's already weak Palestinian Authority could collapse. | Important Arab governments such as Egypt have their own domestic preoccupations but understand that jump-starting long-stalled talks may not be a good idea – not least because there is a risk that Abbas's already weak Palestinian Authority could collapse. |
| "Given American (and European) refusal to directly deploy the considerable leverage at their disposal to push Israel to de-occupation, it is better if the president not insist on the immediate resumption of bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations," argued Daniel Levy of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Israeli impunity and maximalism combined with the asymmetry between the parties – exacerbated rather than mitigated by US policy – guarantees that renewed direct negotiations will do more harm than good, further convincing the respective publics that a deal is impossible." | "Given American (and European) refusal to directly deploy the considerable leverage at their disposal to push Israel to de-occupation, it is better if the president not insist on the immediate resumption of bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations," argued Daniel Levy of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Israeli impunity and maximalism combined with the asymmetry between the parties – exacerbated rather than mitigated by US policy – guarantees that renewed direct negotiations will do more harm than good, further convincing the respective publics that a deal is impossible." |
| Attention on Obama will be sharpest in his three days in Israel and the Palestinian territories. But his trip to Jordan on Friday is a glittering reward for a loyal but cash-strapped US ally that has avoided succumbing to the pressures that have brought change elsewhere in the past two years, despite implementing very limited reforms. | Attention on Obama will be sharpest in his three days in Israel and the Palestinian territories. But his trip to Jordan on Friday is a glittering reward for a loyal but cash-strapped US ally that has avoided succumbing to the pressures that have brought change elsewhere in the past two years, despite implementing very limited reforms. |
| The country is struggling to accommodate thousands of Syrian refugees – as it did with Iraqis in the past – and also allowing discreet training for Syrian rebels. King Abdullah II's statement that Bashar al-Assad will not survive is more explicit than anything he has said publicly before. | The country is struggling to accommodate thousands of Syrian refugees – as it did with Iraqis in the past – and also allowing discreet training for Syrian rebels. King Abdullah II's statement that Bashar al-Assad will not survive is more explicit than anything he has said publicly before. |
| The Jordanian king, who inherited the unpopular 1994 peace treaty with Israel from his father, Hussein, also commented that Obama's visit opened a "window of opportunity" for restarting Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It is an image he has used many times before. | The Jordanian king, who inherited the unpopular 1994 peace treaty with Israel from his father, Hussein, also commented that Obama's visit opened a "window of opportunity" for restarting Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It is an image he has used many times before. |
| Arab goodwill matters, though it cannot be decisive. If he does not know it already, the US president will learn on this Middle Eastern trip that he will bear a heavy responsibility if that window does finally slam shut. | Arab goodwill matters, though it cannot be decisive. If he does not know it already, the US president will learn on this Middle Eastern trip that he will bear a heavy responsibility if that window does finally slam shut. |
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