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| Baghdad attacks are symptom of resurgent sectarian tensions | Baghdad attacks are symptom of resurgent sectarian tensions |
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| It is highly unlikely to be a coincidence that, 10 years to the day since the start of the US-led invasion that overthrew Saddam Hussein, mass bloodletting in Iraq has hit the headlines again. | It is highly unlikely to be a coincidence that, 10 years to the day since the start of the US-led invasion that overthrew Saddam Hussein, mass bloodletting in Iraq has hit the headlines again. |
| Hours after the attacks that claimed the lives of more than 50 people on Tuesday, no-one had claimed responsibility, but the co-ordinated atrocities bore the grimly familiar hallmarks of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) – a violent organisation operating in a profoundly polarised and unstable country. | Hours after the attacks that claimed the lives of more than 50 people on Tuesday, no-one had claimed responsibility, but the co-ordinated atrocities bore the grimly familiar hallmarks of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) – a violent organisation operating in a profoundly polarised and unstable country. |
| In the US and Britain, comment on the anniversary has focused on intelligence failures and continuing anger over the decision by George W Bush and Tony Blair to go to war. | In the US and Britain, comment on the anniversary has focused on intelligence failures and continuing anger over the decision by George W Bush and Tony Blair to go to war. |
| Iraqis see things differently: Saddam and his Ba'athist regime are mourned by few, but the occupation that followed set in train events whose consequences millions of ordinary people still live with. | Iraqis see things differently: Saddam and his Ba'athist regime are mourned by few, but the occupation that followed set in train events whose consequences millions of ordinary people still live with. |
| Bombs no longer explode nearly every day – as they did during the worst years from 2006-2007;in the second half of 2012, violence fell to its lowest rate since the invasion. Still, it is an abiding irony that while Saddam was implacably hostile to al-Qaida his demise encouraged extremism that fed off and fuelled a vicious sectarian war between Iraq's Shia majority and Sunni minority – the reverse of the situation in neighbouring Syria. | Bombs no longer explode nearly every day – as they did during the worst years from 2006-2007;in the second half of 2012, violence fell to its lowest rate since the invasion. Still, it is an abiding irony that while Saddam was implacably hostile to al-Qaida his demise encouraged extremism that fed off and fuelled a vicious sectarian war between Iraq's Shia majority and Sunni minority – the reverse of the situation in neighbouring Syria. |
| Only last week "martyrdom-seeking" AQI fighters used explosive belts and machine guns to kill 22 people in an attack on the justice ministry in Baghdad, part of its campaign to free Sunni women prisoners held by the "apostate" (meaning Shia) government of Nuri al-Maliki. | Only last week "martyrdom-seeking" AQI fighters used explosive belts and machine guns to kill 22 people in an attack on the justice ministry in Baghdad, part of its campaign to free Sunni women prisoners held by the "apostate" (meaning Shia) government of Nuri al-Maliki. |
| Iraqi and foreign experts blame the banning of Saddam's Ba'ath party and the disbanding of his huge army for undermining Iraq's government and military. As the academic Toby Dodge argues in a new book, Iraq suffered a fatal combination of the collapse of state power and the political manipulation of sectarian fears. | Iraqi and foreign experts blame the banning of Saddam's Ba'ath party and the disbanding of his huge army for undermining Iraq's government and military. As the academic Toby Dodge argues in a new book, Iraq suffered a fatal combination of the collapse of state power and the political manipulation of sectarian fears. |
| But if the overall level of violence has tailed off in the last five years, incidents have again been multiplying in recent months against a background of Sunni protests in Anbar and other provinces. | But if the overall level of violence has tailed off in the last five years, incidents have again been multiplying in recent months against a background of Sunni protests in Anbar and other provinces. |
| AQI has regenerated significant capability since US forces withdrew at the end of 2011. "While the group does not openly control territory as it did in 2007, before US and Iraqi forces drove it from strongholds throughout the country, AQI can still organise and execute complex, large-scale attacks," according to a recent expert assessment. | AQI has regenerated significant capability since US forces withdrew at the end of 2011. "While the group does not openly control territory as it did in 2007, before US and Iraqi forces drove it from strongholds throughout the country, AQI can still organise and execute complex, large-scale attacks," according to a recent expert assessment. |
| Maliki, the prime minister since 2006, is isolated and unpopular and stands accused of presiding over a new authoritarianism while taking a more aggressive approach against Sunnis, as evidenced by the terrorism cases brought against Iraq's vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, and the bodyguards and associates of another senior Sunni official. | Maliki, the prime minister since 2006, is isolated and unpopular and stands accused of presiding over a new authoritarianism while taking a more aggressive approach against Sunnis, as evidenced by the terrorism cases brought against Iraq's vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, and the bodyguards and associates of another senior Sunni official. |
| He has also pitted Sunnis against the Kurds, the great winners of the 2003 war, who have their own relatively stable autonomous region in the north. | He has also pitted Sunnis against the Kurds, the great winners of the 2003 war, who have their own relatively stable autonomous region in the north. |
| Maliki's moves against rivals, writes Dodge, are "part of a larger pattern of deployment … of the judiciary and security forces to break any political opposition to his long-running attempts to centralise power in his own hands and those of his allies. This process has reached the level at which it threatens Iraq's democracy." | Maliki's moves against rivals, writes Dodge, are "part of a larger pattern of deployment … of the judiciary and security forces to break any political opposition to his long-running attempts to centralise power in his own hands and those of his allies. This process has reached the level at which it threatens Iraq's democracy." |
| Independent watchdogs echo these fears. "Iraq remains enmeshed in a grim cycle of human rights abuses, including attacks on civilians, torture of detainees, unfair trials and widespread use of the death penalty," Amnesty International reported earlier this month. | Independent watchdogs echo these fears. "Iraq remains enmeshed in a grim cycle of human rights abuses, including attacks on civilians, torture of detainees, unfair trials and widespread use of the death penalty," Amnesty International reported earlier this month. |
| Regional circumstances have conspired to worsen Iraq's situation. The uprising in Syria poses a threat because a spillover of Syrian Sunni militants could rekindle large-scale sectarian violence in Baghdad and elsewhere. It was AQI that spawned the Syrian al-Nusra front that is fighting Bashar al-Assad but is banned by the US. | Regional circumstances have conspired to worsen Iraq's situation. The uprising in Syria poses a threat because a spillover of Syrian Sunni militants could rekindle large-scale sectarian violence in Baghdad and elsewhere. It was AQI that spawned the Syrian al-Nusra front that is fighting Bashar al-Assad but is banned by the US. |
| Early in March AQI claimed credit for an attack in Anbar that killed 48 defecting Syrian soldiers and the nine Iraqi troops who were escorting them. | Early in March AQI claimed credit for an attack in Anbar that killed 48 defecting Syrian soldiers and the nine Iraqi troops who were escorting them. |
| Looking back a decade as the smoke clears over another series of deadly blasts, the single most obvious lesson is this – in the words of Charles Tripp, a respected British historian of Iraq: "The use of violence, whatever its motive, has its own baneful logic. The deeper and more prolonged its use, the more distinctive and disturbing the consequences will be." | Looking back a decade as the smoke clears over another series of deadly blasts, the single most obvious lesson is this – in the words of Charles Tripp, a respected British historian of Iraq: "The use of violence, whatever its motive, has its own baneful logic. The deeper and more prolonged its use, the more distinctive and disturbing the consequences will be." |
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