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David Cameron's leadership is under threat, but not by the Tory right David Cameron's leadership is under threat, but not by the Tory right
(6 months later)
Exciting times. The rumour mill has been buzzing about a Tory leadership challenge. Theresa May, a winning Major-Merkel combo with a compelling zombie stare, is apparently positioning herself as David Cameron's natural successor. Her camp let it be known that she had forced the prime minister to back down on minimum alcohol pricing as a small favour to the party right. And she delivered what sounded like a leadership speech, setting out the stall for a post-coalition future.Exciting times. The rumour mill has been buzzing about a Tory leadership challenge. Theresa May, a winning Major-Merkel combo with a compelling zombie stare, is apparently positioning herself as David Cameron's natural successor. Her camp let it be known that she had forced the prime minister to back down on minimum alcohol pricing as a small favour to the party right. And she delivered what sounded like a leadership speech, setting out the stall for a post-coalition future.
May's people claim the speech was cleared by Number 10. I bet it was. Undoubtedly, they thought it a great idea to let May tie herself up in knots with a premature leadership bid, as an object lesson for other potential challengers. It also allowed Boris Johnson to authoritatively rebuke any talk of a leadership challenge at this point, thus establishing that he is both loyal and the only real successor to Cameron.May's people claim the speech was cleared by Number 10. I bet it was. Undoubtedly, they thought it a great idea to let May tie herself up in knots with a premature leadership bid, as an object lesson for other potential challengers. It also allowed Boris Johnson to authoritatively rebuke any talk of a leadership challenge at this point, thus establishing that he is both loyal and the only real successor to Cameron.
What is striking about this is less the feeding frenzy itself than the failure of the Tory right, thus far, to produce from its ranks someone capable of articulating an unambiguously rightwing populist agenda. Despite the fact that May has courted the support of rightwing backbenchers, she is herself a centrist, and made her pitch exclusively within the terms of the pragmatic "One Nation" orientation that is supported by the current leadership. The ensuing conversation was dominated entirely by people known to support, with some reservations, the same stance.What is striking about this is less the feeding frenzy itself than the failure of the Tory right, thus far, to produce from its ranks someone capable of articulating an unambiguously rightwing populist agenda. Despite the fact that May has courted the support of rightwing backbenchers, she is herself a centrist, and made her pitch exclusively within the terms of the pragmatic "One Nation" orientation that is supported by the current leadership. The ensuing conversation was dominated entirely by people known to support, with some reservations, the same stance.
One would think that with Nigel Farage's blue-rinse armies making massive inroads on Tory support everywhere, and with the backbenchers wounding Cameron repeatedly, the Tory right would have already found a tribune who would lay into the government's capitulations. It isn't as if there is a lack of energy on the party's right wing. The Free Enterprise Group, an ultra-Thatcherite faction which would ideally like shiftless Brits to be as hard-working as Indian children in sweatshops, is admired by the leadership and even has the ear of the chancellor. Conservative Voice, with the support of Liam Fox and David Davis, is pressing a five-point strategy for Tory revival based on traditional Thatcherite thematics, such as a smaller state and harsher crime and immigration policies (as ever, the contradiction between these two objectives is gently glided over). Manifestly, the Conservative party is filled with intelligent, energetic and influential go-getters. Yet thus far it's hard to envisage any of them taking over Cameron's job.One would think that with Nigel Farage's blue-rinse armies making massive inroads on Tory support everywhere, and with the backbenchers wounding Cameron repeatedly, the Tory right would have already found a tribune who would lay into the government's capitulations. It isn't as if there is a lack of energy on the party's right wing. The Free Enterprise Group, an ultra-Thatcherite faction which would ideally like shiftless Brits to be as hard-working as Indian children in sweatshops, is admired by the leadership and even has the ear of the chancellor. Conservative Voice, with the support of Liam Fox and David Davis, is pressing a five-point strategy for Tory revival based on traditional Thatcherite thematics, such as a smaller state and harsher crime and immigration policies (as ever, the contradiction between these two objectives is gently glided over). Manifestly, the Conservative party is filled with intelligent, energetic and influential go-getters. Yet thus far it's hard to envisage any of them taking over Cameron's job.
Why is this? There is no shortage of sympathy for rightwing attitudes. Under New Labour, British society moved to the right in a number of ways. Blair persuaded many Labour voters that Thatcher had been right on the free market and benefit scroungers. But most of the people thus convinced remained Labour voters, while others simply stopped voting. Throughout the New Labour period, no matter how unpopular the government became, it was rare for the Tories to poll higher than the low 30%. Even in 2010, when the most important issue to voters was the economy – on which Labour had manifestly failed – and the second most important issue was immigration – on which people were hysterical – the Tories couldn't command an election-winning plurality. This despite running a deliberately moderate campaign.Why is this? There is no shortage of sympathy for rightwing attitudes. Under New Labour, British society moved to the right in a number of ways. Blair persuaded many Labour voters that Thatcher had been right on the free market and benefit scroungers. But most of the people thus convinced remained Labour voters, while others simply stopped voting. Throughout the New Labour period, no matter how unpopular the government became, it was rare for the Tories to poll higher than the low 30%. Even in 2010, when the most important issue to voters was the economy – on which Labour had manifestly failed – and the second most important issue was immigration – on which people were hysterical – the Tories couldn't command an election-winning plurality. This despite running a deliberately moderate campaign.
The popularity of some rightwing ideas by no means translates into strong support for a coherent, conservative agenda, much less for the Conservative party itself. Many people have rightwing views on immigration; hardly anyone supports the privatisation of the NHS. The traditional base for conservatism has been contracting for decades, due in part to the spread of higher education and the decline of deference. The potential base for a revived conservatism is too fragmented and differentiated, there being at present no outstanding issue capable of cohering them.The popularity of some rightwing ideas by no means translates into strong support for a coherent, conservative agenda, much less for the Conservative party itself. Many people have rightwing views on immigration; hardly anyone supports the privatisation of the NHS. The traditional base for conservatism has been contracting for decades, due in part to the spread of higher education and the decline of deference. The potential base for a revived conservatism is too fragmented and differentiated, there being at present no outstanding issue capable of cohering them.
The Tory right thus has no way, at the moment, of converting its assets into an electorally viable agenda. Apart from a salient issue, it would need at the very least a candidate liked by the rightwing tabloids, popular with rank and file activists, authoritative in the parliamentary party, and not too weird for middle-ground voters. Failing all this, a modicum of charisma would be a good start: in a rightwing composed of career politicians, business managers and professionals, there is little sign of this.The Tory right thus has no way, at the moment, of converting its assets into an electorally viable agenda. Apart from a salient issue, it would need at the very least a candidate liked by the rightwing tabloids, popular with rank and file activists, authoritative in the parliamentary party, and not too weird for middle-ground voters. Failing all this, a modicum of charisma would be a good start: in a rightwing composed of career politicians, business managers and professionals, there is little sign of this.
Nor does it seem capable of mounting an insurgency against the party's establishment. The Thatcherites were able to take control of the Conservative party in a particular historical moment in which the old leadership was disintegrating, and the rightists were galvanised by the humiliating defeats inflicted on the Heath administration by the miners. They came to power with a mandate for class war. Today's conflict with the unions is a polite joust by comparison, the libidinal energy entirely drained from the issue. The party's establishment is far from threatened, and is not susceptible to takeover by a poujadist element.Nor does it seem capable of mounting an insurgency against the party's establishment. The Thatcherites were able to take control of the Conservative party in a particular historical moment in which the old leadership was disintegrating, and the rightists were galvanised by the humiliating defeats inflicted on the Heath administration by the miners. They came to power with a mandate for class war. Today's conflict with the unions is a polite joust by comparison, the libidinal energy entirely drained from the issue. The party's establishment is far from threatened, and is not susceptible to takeover by a poujadist element.
Hence the calamitous situation: the right can hurt Cameron, but they still can't replace him.Hence the calamitous situation: the right can hurt Cameron, but they still can't replace him.
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