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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll | Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll |
| (10 days later) | |
| The CPAC straw poll, won on Saturday by the Kentucky senator Rand Paul, has never been the best indicator of who will win the Republican party's presidential nomination in the next election. It's not a scientific sample, and it's easy for an organized faction behind a candidate with narrow appeal to tilt the results. | The CPAC straw poll, won on Saturday by the Kentucky senator Rand Paul, has never been the best indicator of who will win the Republican party's presidential nomination in the next election. It's not a scientific sample, and it's easy for an organized faction behind a candidate with narrow appeal to tilt the results. |
| Also, we're three years away from the next presidential election. It's possible – even likely – that we may have to wait some time before Republicans make up their minds. The last time the GOP was three years away from nominating a candidate, in 2009, Mitt Romney did indeed end up winning this poll | Also, we're three years away from the next presidential election. It's possible – even likely – that we may have to wait some time before Republicans make up their minds. The last time the GOP was three years away from nominating a candidate, in 2009, Mitt Romney did indeed end up winning this poll |
| But before that, in 2005? Rudy Giuliani. Other winners in recent years have included Gary Bauer, Steve Forbes, George Allen, and Ron Paul. | But before that, in 2005? Rudy Giuliani. Other winners in recent years have included Gary Bauer, Steve Forbes, George Allen, and Ron Paul. |
| See what we mean? | See what we mean? |
| When the results were announced at the end of the three-day Conservative Political Action Conference, just outside Washington DC, it was revealed that Paul had won 25% of the 2,930 votes cast. Senator Marco Rubio came in second with 23%. The former putative presidential nominee Rick Santorum ran a distant third with 8%, followed by the (uninvited) New Jersey governor Chris Christie at 7%. | When the results were announced at the end of the three-day Conservative Political Action Conference, just outside Washington DC, it was revealed that Paul had won 25% of the 2,930 votes cast. Senator Marco Rubio came in second with 23%. The former putative presidential nominee Rick Santorum ran a distant third with 8%, followed by the (uninvited) New Jersey governor Chris Christie at 7%. |
| If anything, it's surprising that Paul only won with 25%, considering the legion of dedicated, well-traveling devotees he inherited from his father, the master of warping straw polls to his favor. On top of that, Paul is coming fresh off a wave of national, mainstream praise for his 13-hour filibuster of President Obama's CIA nominee John Brennan. He's the "it-guy" right now, and recent history tells us that no one remains the "it-guy" for too long in this iteration of the wolfish conservative movement. | If anything, it's surprising that Paul only won with 25%, considering the legion of dedicated, well-traveling devotees he inherited from his father, the master of warping straw polls to his favor. On top of that, Paul is coming fresh off a wave of national, mainstream praise for his 13-hour filibuster of President Obama's CIA nominee John Brennan. He's the "it-guy" right now, and recent history tells us that no one remains the "it-guy" for too long in this iteration of the wolfish conservative movement. |
| When Ron Paul – a much more fringe figure than his son – last won in 2011, he took 30% of the vote. | When Ron Paul – a much more fringe figure than his son – last won in 2011, he took 30% of the vote. |
| The only real thing these figures confirm is that there's absolutely no early consensus pick for early frontrunner, and no one with enough stature or crossover ability to garner more than a small plurality of hypothetical support. | The only real thing these figures confirm is that there's absolutely no early consensus pick for early frontrunner, and no one with enough stature or crossover ability to garner more than a small plurality of hypothetical support. |
| But they've got three more years to figure it out. | But they've got three more years to figure it out. |
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