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| New Chinese Leader Shores Up Military Support | New Chinese Leader Shores Up Military Support |
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| HONG KONG — On the eve of the National People’s Congress, the chief of China’s Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is emphasizing his role as a champion of the military, using the armed forces to cement his political authority and present a tough stance in growing territorial disputes in the Pacific region. | HONG KONG — On the eve of the National People’s Congress, the chief of China’s Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is emphasizing his role as a champion of the military, using the armed forces to cement his political authority and present a tough stance in growing territorial disputes in the Pacific region. |
| Mr. Xi will be appointed president at the end of the Congress, the party-run parliament that opens Tuesday for an annual session of about 10 days. The 2,987 carefully vetted delegates are also virtually certain to approve another rise in military spending, after an 11.2 percent increase to $106 billion in 2012. | |
| On Monday, a spokeswoman for the parliament, Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying, broke with recent precedent and declined to announce Chinese military outlays for the year at a news conference about the Congress session. The number will be disclosed in a budget released when the session opens, she said. | |
| “We in China have endured the grievous lessons of having a weak national defense and suffering bullying by others,” Ms. Fu told reporters. “The Chinese people have deep historical memories of this problem, and so we need solid national defense.” | |
| Since Mao Zedong rode to victory in a revolutionary war, the country’s Communist leaders have regarded an utterly loyal military as the ultimate shield of their political power. Nearly four months since his appointment as party chief in November, Mr. Xi has made that shield his own, with greater speed and sureness than his recent predecessors. | Since Mao Zedong rode to victory in a revolutionary war, the country’s Communist leaders have regarded an utterly loyal military as the ultimate shield of their political power. Nearly four months since his appointment as party chief in November, Mr. Xi has made that shield his own, with greater speed and sureness than his recent predecessors. |
| “Compared with the two previous leaders at a similar stage, Xi has already established closer, better relations with the military. They didn’t come to power with the same confidence,” said Chen Ziming, a commentator in Beijing who studies party affairs. | “Compared with the two previous leaders at a similar stage, Xi has already established closer, better relations with the military. They didn’t come to power with the same confidence,” said Chen Ziming, a commentator in Beijing who studies party affairs. |
| Beyond being the only member of the powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee to also sit on the Central Military Commission, Mr. Xi already leads the military body, which controls the People’s Liberation Army. | Beyond being the only member of the powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee to also sit on the Central Military Commission, Mr. Xi already leads the military body, which controls the People’s Liberation Army. |
| Mr. Xi is taking over from Hu Jintao, who had to wait two years before his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, handed him chairmanship of the Central Military Commission. Mr. Jiang dealt gingerly with the military in his first years as leader, Mr. Chen said, overshadowed by the party patriarch Deng Xiaoping. | Mr. Xi is taking over from Hu Jintao, who had to wait two years before his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, handed him chairmanship of the Central Military Commission. Mr. Jiang dealt gingerly with the military in his first years as leader, Mr. Chen said, overshadowed by the party patriarch Deng Xiaoping. |
| Since succeeding Mr. Hu as party chief and military chairman in November, Mr. Xi has visited army units or met commanders and troops at least nine times, according to state news reports. His activities included a brief trip on a new naval destroyer that is deployed in the South China Sea, and meeting commanders of the Second Artillery Corps, which manages China’s strategic missiles, including nuclear weapons. | Since succeeding Mr. Hu as party chief and military chairman in November, Mr. Xi has visited army units or met commanders and troops at least nine times, according to state news reports. His activities included a brief trip on a new naval destroyer that is deployed in the South China Sea, and meeting commanders of the Second Artillery Corps, which manages China’s strategic missiles, including nuclear weapons. |
| Mr. Xi has also assumed charge of a secretive civilian-military group steering strategy in maritime disputes, particularly the clash with Japan over a cluster of islands in the East China Sea, Western analysts say. | Mr. Xi has also assumed charge of a secretive civilian-military group steering strategy in maritime disputes, particularly the clash with Japan over a cluster of islands in the East China Sea, Western analysts say. |
| The Chinese military owes its paramount loyalty to the party and its leader, not the civilian government. In private, Mr. Xi has said absolute military obedience to the party is essential to ensuring the Chinese Communist Party is not wiped out like its Soviet counterpart. | The Chinese military owes its paramount loyalty to the party and its leader, not the civilian government. In private, Mr. Xi has said absolute military obedience to the party is essential to ensuring the Chinese Communist Party is not wiped out like its Soviet counterpart. |
| “Any paramount leader needs the support of the P.L.A. and makes gestures in that direction. I think that’s what Xi’s doing,” Andrew Scobell, a senior political scientist for the RAND Corporation who studies Chinese security policy, said of the People’s Liberation Army. “It’s kind of like how a kid holds on to a security blanket. The party is more secure than it thinks, but it needs that security blanket of the P.L.A.” | “Any paramount leader needs the support of the P.L.A. and makes gestures in that direction. I think that’s what Xi’s doing,” Andrew Scobell, a senior political scientist for the RAND Corporation who studies Chinese security policy, said of the People’s Liberation Army. “It’s kind of like how a kid holds on to a security blanket. The party is more secure than it thinks, but it needs that security blanket of the P.L.A.” |
| Mr. Xi’s background also helps to explain his relative ease with generals, said Mr. Chen, the analyst. The son of a revolutionary leader, Mr. Xi worked early on as an aide to a veteran general, Geng Biao, who served as defense minister in 1981-82. | Mr. Xi’s background also helps to explain his relative ease with generals, said Mr. Chen, the analyst. The son of a revolutionary leader, Mr. Xi worked early on as an aide to a veteran general, Geng Biao, who served as defense minister in 1981-82. |
| Many Western experts believe real Chinese military spending is higher than the public number by a large degree. A Pentagon annual report to Congress last year estimated that China actually spent $120 billion to $180 billion on its armed forces in 2011. Richard A. Bitzinger, a researcher at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said he believed the public military budget was now reasonably accurate. | |
| Even with generous budget increases, Mr. Bitzinger said, China’s military strength remains far behind that of the United States, which has a military budget about five times higher than China’s official figures. “There’s a lot of progress in modernizing the P.L.A., but a lot of it is just a high-tech veneer that goes over a system that is still pretty conservative,” he said. | Even with generous budget increases, Mr. Bitzinger said, China’s military strength remains far behind that of the United States, which has a military budget about five times higher than China’s official figures. “There’s a lot of progress in modernizing the P.L.A., but a lot of it is just a high-tech veneer that goes over a system that is still pretty conservative,” he said. |
| Mr. Xi has signaled that he wants to shake off the inefficiency and corruption that have undermined the military. Since taking the top party post, he has repeatedly demanded “battle readiness” from the military and sent ships and aircraft to assert China’s claims over islands also claimed by Japan. | Mr. Xi has signaled that he wants to shake off the inefficiency and corruption that have undermined the military. Since taking the top party post, he has repeatedly demanded “battle readiness” from the military and sent ships and aircraft to assert China’s claims over islands also claimed by Japan. |
| Mr. Xi’s comments were a call to vigilance from the military, not war footing, said several experts. “He’s not beating the drums for an imminent battle. It’s all about training,” said Dennis J. Blasko, a former United States military attaché in Beijing and author of the book “The Chinese Army Today.” | Mr. Xi’s comments were a call to vigilance from the military, not war footing, said several experts. “He’s not beating the drums for an imminent battle. It’s all about training,” said Dennis J. Blasko, a former United States military attaché in Beijing and author of the book “The Chinese Army Today.” |
| In the view of army commanders, China remains plagued by enmity and hazards and is the target of military belligerence, not its initiator. | In the view of army commanders, China remains plagued by enmity and hazards and is the target of military belligerence, not its initiator. |
| “The United States and Japan are worried that we will catch up, and are doing their utmost to contain China’s development, and by no means should we be fooled,” said Liu Yuan, a Chinese general, in comments published last month by Global Times, a popular Chinese newspaper. | “The United States and Japan are worried that we will catch up, and are doing their utmost to contain China’s development, and by no means should we be fooled,” said Liu Yuan, a Chinese general, in comments published last month by Global Times, a popular Chinese newspaper. |
| China’s first security priority should be “vigilance against and prevention of the West’s strategy of infiltration and subversion,” Qi Jianguo, a People’s Liberation Army deputy chief of staff, told a party newspaper, The Study Times, in January. | China’s first security priority should be “vigilance against and prevention of the West’s strategy of infiltration and subversion,” Qi Jianguo, a People’s Liberation Army deputy chief of staff, told a party newspaper, The Study Times, in January. |
| The main risk posed by China’s mix of military swagger and insecurity is not a deliberately initiated conflict, analysts say. Rather, combined with poor communication between the opaque military and civilian bureaucracies, it could lead to missteps that spiral into dangerous confrontation. | The main risk posed by China’s mix of military swagger and insecurity is not a deliberately initiated conflict, analysts say. Rather, combined with poor communication between the opaque military and civilian bureaucracies, it could lead to missteps that spiral into dangerous confrontation. |
Jane Perlez contributed reporting from Washington. | Jane Perlez contributed reporting from Washington. |