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| Eastleigh byelection: less of a national protest, more of a triumph for localism | Eastleigh byelection: less of a national protest, more of a triumph for localism |
| (7 months later) | |
| "Cameron humiliated" and "a severe blow for the Conservatives" were the instant media verdicts on the less-than-resounding Lib Dem victory at the Eastleigh byelection shortly before 2.30am today. Actually it's a pretty resounding two fingers to all three main parties – all of them social democratic parties, according to cocky Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader. He polled just 952 votes (1.7%) when he stood in the 1994 byelection here. This time his candidate got 27.8% – barely 4% behind the winner. | "Cameron humiliated" and "a severe blow for the Conservatives" were the instant media verdicts on the less-than-resounding Lib Dem victory at the Eastleigh byelection shortly before 2.30am today. Actually it's a pretty resounding two fingers to all three main parties – all of them social democratic parties, according to cocky Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader. He polled just 952 votes (1.7%) when he stood in the 1994 byelection here. This time his candidate got 27.8% – barely 4% behind the winner. |
| Does it mean the Tories are now doomed at the 2015 election? That Lib Dems can survive while Tories fight and the coalition falters? Not necessarily. Is the result a fatal blow to Ed Miliband's leadership? Ditto. Is Ukip posed for its long-promised national breakthrough at last? Possibly, but don't bet the pension on it, Nigel (he won't). As the repository of "damn you all" protest votes, byelections rarely matter quite as much as was said at the time. | Does it mean the Tories are now doomed at the 2015 election? That Lib Dems can survive while Tories fight and the coalition falters? Not necessarily. Is the result a fatal blow to Ed Miliband's leadership? Ditto. Is Ukip posed for its long-promised national breakthrough at last? Possibly, but don't bet the pension on it, Nigel (he won't). As the repository of "damn you all" protest votes, byelections rarely matter quite as much as was said at the time. |
| This was a victory for localism. Councillor Mike Thornton is a local candidate with unashamedly local values (homes, jobs, apprenticeships, traffic, the Botley bypass and Hamble gravel pits) and prevailed over the national agenda which outsiders sought to impose (sex scandals, triple-AAA ratings and all). Immigration from eastern Europe does feel like an on-the-doorstep issue and Ukip put it top of its list. | This was a victory for localism. Councillor Mike Thornton is a local candidate with unashamedly local values (homes, jobs, apprenticeships, traffic, the Botley bypass and Hamble gravel pits) and prevailed over the national agenda which outsiders sought to impose (sex scandals, triple-AAA ratings and all). Immigration from eastern Europe does feel like an on-the-doorstep issue and Ukip put it top of its list. |
| What you won't read or hear about on the airwaves today is that the result also represents a robust rebuff by the solid citizens of this south Hampshire suburban town of the media and its shrill, brutally hysterical agenda. In recent weeks, the Tory press threw not just the kitchen sink but an entire fitted kitchen at the Lib Dems – disgraced Chris Huhne; alleged groper Chris Rennard; cover-up Clegg; even that coalition ladies' man, the late David Lloyd George. Eastleigh was kinder and wiser. | What you won't read or hear about on the airwaves today is that the result also represents a robust rebuff by the solid citizens of this south Hampshire suburban town of the media and its shrill, brutally hysterical agenda. In recent weeks, the Tory press threw not just the kitchen sink but an entire fitted kitchen at the Lib Dems – disgraced Chris Huhne; alleged groper Chris Rennard; cover-up Clegg; even that coalition ladies' man, the late David Lloyd George. Eastleigh was kinder and wiser. |
| So Fleet St failed too; the 24-hour news channels, running to keep up with the reptile agenda as usual, were caught out as well. But fear not. The media's boiler-plated self-regard will not require it to give its own performance a backward glance. At least the parties will do that. | So Fleet St failed too; the 24-hour news channels, running to keep up with the reptile agenda as usual, were caught out as well. But fear not. The media's boiler-plated self-regard will not require it to give its own performance a backward glance. At least the parties will do that. |
| So what happened? My abiding memory of Eastleigh – which I visited twice, here and here – is of the Lib Dem campaign HQ in a two-storey rented unit on the Shakespeare industrial estate near the railway. Never in 30 or so years of covering byelections have I seen such a hive of activity: a room full of activists hard at work, regular bus loads of outside volunteers arriving to canvass bemused voters day after day. Six thousand volunteers in all, according to my notes. Beat that! | So what happened? My abiding memory of Eastleigh – which I visited twice, here and here – is of the Lib Dem campaign HQ in a two-storey rented unit on the Shakespeare industrial estate near the railway. Never in 30 or so years of covering byelections have I seen such a hive of activity: a room full of activists hard at work, regular bus loads of outside volunteers arriving to canvass bemused voters day after day. Six thousand volunteers in all, according to my notes. Beat that! |
| So you only had to see their pavement politics machine in action to know the Lib Dems – holding all 40 of the constituency's council seats – would fight tenaciously to hold the seat they captured from the Tories in 1994. | So you only had to see their pavement politics machine in action to know the Lib Dems – holding all 40 of the constituency's council seats – would fight tenaciously to hold the seat they captured from the Tories in 1994. |
| My second abiding memory will be Diane James, the Ukip candidate. Shurely shome mishtake, as Private Eye would say? James is an independent councillor from up the M3 in Surrey, a smartly dressed professional woman involved in healthcare and (did I mishear this?) venture capitalism. She stopped voting Tory in 2010 because she felt David Cameron patronises women (ouch!), yet she looked, sounded and conducted herself like a Tory candidate. | My second abiding memory will be Diane James, the Ukip candidate. Shurely shome mishtake, as Private Eye would say? James is an independent councillor from up the M3 in Surrey, a smartly dressed professional woman involved in healthcare and (did I mishear this?) venture capitalism. She stopped voting Tory in 2010 because she felt David Cameron patronises women (ouch!), yet she looked, sounded and conducted herself like a Tory candidate. |
| In contrast, Maria Hutchings, wearing a track jacket with her name on the back, behaved like the Ukip candidate: abortion, gay marriage, immigration, Europe, law and order, general chippiness. She was sincere, hard-working, accident-prone and effectively silenced by her own party. She ducked out of hustings, church meetings, radio phone-ins and the rest, because party HQ felt it could not trust her plain-speaking style. "Authentic" was the best line they could come up with. "Salt of the earth" might have been less condescending. | In contrast, Maria Hutchings, wearing a track jacket with her name on the back, behaved like the Ukip candidate: abortion, gay marriage, immigration, Europe, law and order, general chippiness. She was sincere, hard-working, accident-prone and effectively silenced by her own party. She ducked out of hustings, church meetings, radio phone-ins and the rest, because party HQ felt it could not trust her plain-speaking style. "Authentic" was the best line they could come up with. "Salt of the earth" might have been less condescending. |
| When I last heard Maria doing a local TV interview on Wednesday, I felt she was getting the hang of it (she would not now vote to leave the EU until she'd inspected Cameron's promised renegotiation), but first impressions matter. Tory strategists decided it would be easier to leave their sitting candidate – she fought Huhne in 2010 – in place for a snap byelection if Huhne was convicted (he had been confident of acquittal), rather than waste time on a selection. They were probably right, but unlucky in Hutchings: not the right woman at the right time. High-profile byelection focus is different. | When I last heard Maria doing a local TV interview on Wednesday, I felt she was getting the hang of it (she would not now vote to leave the EU until she'd inspected Cameron's promised renegotiation), but first impressions matter. Tory strategists decided it would be easier to leave their sitting candidate – she fought Huhne in 2010 – in place for a snap byelection if Huhne was convicted (he had been confident of acquittal), rather than waste time on a selection. They were probably right, but unlucky in Hutchings: not the right woman at the right time. High-profile byelection focus is different. |
| As for Labour's John O'Farrell (not the political novice I called him in print, he stood in Maidenhead in 1997), the comedian and writer came across as a melancholy kind of clown in Eastleigh, likeable and funny, but his heart not in it. His handlers must have experienced a surge of hope when Beppe Grillo surged to success in the Italian elections, but not for long. Patrick Diamond, New Labour backroom boy, starts Labour's inquest here, though his startling claim that "Ed Balls has been proved right" on the economy suggests there is much work to do. | As for Labour's John O'Farrell (not the political novice I called him in print, he stood in Maidenhead in 1997), the comedian and writer came across as a melancholy kind of clown in Eastleigh, likeable and funny, but his heart not in it. His handlers must have experienced a surge of hope when Beppe Grillo surged to success in the Italian elections, but not for long. Patrick Diamond, New Labour backroom boy, starts Labour's inquest here, though his startling claim that "Ed Balls has been proved right" on the economy suggests there is much work to do. |
| On the airwaves today a cockahoop Nigel Farage – cockahoop is Nigel's default position – blamed the Tory defeat on Cameron personally, a man who talks about gay marriage and windmills, who wants "unlimited immigration from India" and to take Turkey into the EU. It's a complaint that will be echoed by the rightwing press in the days to come. Cameron must rue his nutty fruitcakes jibe against Ukip. Yet Hutchings was also peddling the Ukip agenda and she was rejected – because this was a protest vote. | On the airwaves today a cockahoop Nigel Farage – cockahoop is Nigel's default position – blamed the Tory defeat on Cameron personally, a man who talks about gay marriage and windmills, who wants "unlimited immigration from India" and to take Turkey into the EU. It's a complaint that will be echoed by the rightwing press in the days to come. Cameron must rue his nutty fruitcakes jibe against Ukip. Yet Hutchings was also peddling the Ukip agenda and she was rejected – because this was a protest vote. |
| In Corby last year (re-captured by Labour) Ukip took 14%; in Rotherham (held by Labour) it took 22%. "Governing parties don't take seats,'' protested Tory chairman, Grant Shapps. No, that's true and the Tories last did so in 1982. But the Lib Dems haven't held a byelection seat in government since the wartime coalition in 1944 or (if you prefer) Lloyd George's in 1922. | In Corby last year (re-captured by Labour) Ukip took 14%; in Rotherham (held by Labour) it took 22%. "Governing parties don't take seats,'' protested Tory chairman, Grant Shapps. No, that's true and the Tories last did so in 1982. But the Lib Dems haven't held a byelection seat in government since the wartime coalition in 1944 or (if you prefer) Lloyd George's in 1922. |
| Thornton's success may owe something to the 10,000 postal votes cast before the Chris Rennard affair made much impact. But I couldn't find anyone very excited about it in Eastleigh and by byelection standards the turnout (52.8%) was high. According to Fleet St's moralising advice, Huhne's behaviour alone should have clinched his party's defeat. "People are human, they make mistakes," one voter told O'Farrell. And the Lib Dem council is well dug-in, well regarded in Eastleigh. "They've done well by me," another voter confided. That's worth remembering too: a lot of politics is local; Westminster mere background noise. | Thornton's success may owe something to the 10,000 postal votes cast before the Chris Rennard affair made much impact. But I couldn't find anyone very excited about it in Eastleigh and by byelection standards the turnout (52.8%) was high. According to Fleet St's moralising advice, Huhne's behaviour alone should have clinched his party's defeat. "People are human, they make mistakes," one voter told O'Farrell. And the Lib Dem council is well dug-in, well regarded in Eastleigh. "They've done well by me," another voter confided. That's worth remembering too: a lot of politics is local; Westminster mere background noise. |
| As John Harris noted , City man Farage thought it appropriate to dispatch Christine and Neil Hamilton to campaign for Diane James. If the Hamiltons are part of the answer, we must still be asking the wrong question. Nick Clegg has as much reason for quiet satisfaction as Farage after the result, but if he's wise he'll keep his relief to himself. Voters aren't in the mood for complacency. | As John Harris noted , City man Farage thought it appropriate to dispatch Christine and Neil Hamilton to campaign for Diane James. If the Hamiltons are part of the answer, we must still be asking the wrong question. Nick Clegg has as much reason for quiet satisfaction as Farage after the result, but if he's wise he'll keep his relief to himself. Voters aren't in the mood for complacency. |
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