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Eastleigh result raises doubts about Cameron's general election prospects Eastleigh result raises doubts about Cameron's general election prospects
(about 2 hours later)
Loyal Tories were heading to ground after David Cameron suffered the humiliation of being beaten into third place by Ukip, the party he once dismissed as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists".Loyal Tories were heading to ground after David Cameron suffered the humiliation of being beaten into third place by Ukip, the party he once dismissed as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists".
"I think I'm going to bury my head under a duvet," one minister said."I think I'm going to bury my head under a duvet," one minister said.
Even supporters of the prime minister said he had failed the key test at the Eastleigh byelection: avoiding third place behind the Liberal Democrats and Ukip.Even supporters of the prime minister said he had failed the key test at the Eastleigh byelection: avoiding third place behind the Liberal Democrats and Ukip.
As it became clear in the week that the Tories were struggling in Eastleigh, one minister said: "If we come third there will be a crisis. It is as simple as that."As it became clear in the week that the Tories were struggling in Eastleigh, one minister said: "If we come third there will be a crisis. It is as simple as that."
There was one crumb of comfort for No 10. The Tory vote did not completely collapse and the party's share fell at roughly the same rate as the Lib Dems – around 14 points. This allowed Michael Gove, who was dispatched onto the airwaves first thing on Friday morning to rally support for Cameron, to say the Tories were the victims of classic mid-term byelection blues. There was one crumb of comfort for No 10. The Tory vote did not completely collapse and the party's share fell at roughly the same rate as that of the Lib Dems – around 14 points. This allowed Michael Gove, who was dispatched on to the airwaves first thing on Friday morning to rally support for Cameron, to say the Tories were the victims of classic mid-term byelection blues.
Gove, who came of political age in the 1980s, drew parallels with Margaret Thatcher who famously won landslide election victories after suffering devastating mid-term poll slumps. Gove, who came of political age in the 1980s, drew parallels with Margaret Thatcher, who famously won landslide election victories after suffering devastating mid-term poll slumps.
"If the public recognise that the government are taking the right decisions for the country then you get rewarded at general election time," he told the Today programme."If the public recognise that the government are taking the right decisions for the country then you get rewarded at general election time," he told the Today programme.
Behind the scenes, however, there are deep concerns that the Tories' failure in Eastleigh does show that Cameron will struggle to come first in the general election, let alone with an outright majority. Eastleigh was one of the 20 Lib Dem seats identified by Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman, as essential to his party's victory at the next general election.Behind the scenes, however, there are deep concerns that the Tories' failure in Eastleigh does show that Cameron will struggle to come first in the general election, let alone with an outright majority. Eastleigh was one of the 20 Lib Dem seats identified by Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman, as essential to his party's victory at the next general election.
Since the seat's creation in 1955 the Tories have never won a general election without winning Eastleigh.Since the seat's creation in 1955 the Tories have never won a general election without winning Eastleigh.
One Tory MP said: "The problem is we seem to have a pattern of behaviour here: David Cameron is not a winner. He failed to win the general election and he has failed since then.One Tory MP said: "The problem is we seem to have a pattern of behaviour here: David Cameron is not a winner. He failed to win the general election and he has failed since then.
"It really looks like Ed Miliband will be prime minister. I don't believe all this guff about Labour needs to win in the south to form a majority. There are plenty of seats for Labour in the north and Midlands – seats we are nowhere near winning.""It really looks like Ed Miliband will be prime minister. I don't believe all this guff about Labour needs to win in the south to form a majority. There are plenty of seats for Labour in the north and Midlands – seats we are nowhere near winning."
The timing of Eastleigh is particularly unfortunate for the prime minister because it is the first electoral test since he tried to neutralise the Ukip threat by pledging to hold an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. The Tories say it is wrong to link the two issues because they say recent polling shows that Europe is a minor consideration among voters who mainly switch to Ukip as a protest against the main parties.The timing of Eastleigh is particularly unfortunate for the prime minister because it is the first electoral test since he tried to neutralise the Ukip threat by pledging to hold an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. The Tories say it is wrong to link the two issues because they say recent polling shows that Europe is a minor consideration among voters who mainly switch to Ukip as a protest against the main parties.
But as the Tories braced themselves for the result in Eastleigh, the foreign minister of one of Britain's closest EU allies warned that Cameron would never win by attempting to appease Ukip. Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands adapted Winston Churchill's famous warnings of the dangers of appeasing the Nazis.But as the Tories braced themselves for the result in Eastleigh, the foreign minister of one of Britain's closest EU allies warned that Cameron would never win by attempting to appease Ukip. Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands adapted Winston Churchill's famous warnings of the dangers of appeasing the Nazis.
"As Winston Churchill said, if you feed the crocodile of euroscepticism - my addition to this quote – the only thing you will achieve is the crocodile will eat you last," Timmermans told a Policy Network conference at the Guildhall in London on Thursday. "As Winston Churchill said, if you feed the crocodile of Euroscepticism – my addition to this quote – the only thing you will achieve is the crocodile will eat you last," Timmermans told a Policy Network conference at the Guildhall in London on Thursday.
Churchill had said "an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile – hoping it will eat him last".Churchill had said "an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile – hoping it will eat him last".
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is far too cheerful a fellow to make a crocodile. But he does pose a clear and present, if not quite a fatal, threat to the Tories.Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is far too cheerful a fellow to make a crocodile. But he does pose a clear and present, if not quite a fatal, threat to the Tories.