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| Cameron not for turning despite Eastleigh byelection failure, says Gove | Cameron not for turning despite Eastleigh byelection failure, says Gove |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| David Cameron will follow the example of Margaret Thatcher and avoid the "disaster" of embarking on a U-turn after the Tories slumped to third place in the Eastleigh byelection, the education secretary, Michael Gove, said. | David Cameron will follow the example of Margaret Thatcher and avoid the "disaster" of embarking on a U-turn after the Tories slumped to third place in the Eastleigh byelection, the education secretary, Michael Gove, said. |
| In an attempt by the leadership to pre-empt critics on the right after the Tories were beaten by Ukip, Gove said it would be "wrong" to abandon the centre ground. | In an attempt by the leadership to pre-empt critics on the right after the Tories were beaten by Ukip, Gove said it would be "wrong" to abandon the centre ground. |
| The prime minister's cabinet ally took to the airwaves after relieved Liberal Democrats claimed a narrow victory in the Eastleigh byelection, fending off a surge by Ukip that forced the Tories into third place. The result will put pressure on Cameron to show he has a strategy to win the general election in 2015. | The prime minister's cabinet ally took to the airwaves after relieved Liberal Democrats claimed a narrow victory in the Eastleigh byelection, fending off a surge by Ukip that forced the Tories into third place. The result will put pressure on Cameron to show he has a strategy to win the general election in 2015. |
| Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton won Eastleigh with a majority of 1,771, taking 13,342 votes to Ukip's 11,571. | Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton won Eastleigh with a majority of 1,771, taking 13,342 votes to Ukip's 11,571. |
| Tory candidate Maria Hutchings came third with 10,559, and Labour's John O'Farrell fourth with 4,088. The Lib Dem share of the vote fell by 14.5%, Ukip's rose 24.2%, Tories' fell 14% and Labour went up 0.2%. Turnout was 52.8%. | |
| Nick Clegg, facing growing questions over his own leadership, will regard it as a stunning triumph that his party survived against the backdrop of the previous Lib Dem MP Chris Huhne resigning and now facing a prison sentence for asking his wife to take his speeding points. | |
| The Lib Dem leader, who faced a week-long media barrage in the runup to polling day over his handling of allegations of sexual impropriety by the party's former chief executive Lord Rennard, tweeted: "Congratulations Mike4Eastleigh: welcome to the team! We're on track for 2015 now." | The Lib Dem leader, who faced a week-long media barrage in the runup to polling day over his handling of allegations of sexual impropriety by the party's former chief executive Lord Rennard, tweeted: "Congratulations Mike4Eastleigh: welcome to the team! We're on track for 2015 now." |
| The Tory leadership, which was bracing itself for a poor showing, dispatched Gove. The education secretary admitted that No 10 expects a battering from the right which Cameron will resist. | |
| Gove told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Over the next few days you can almost write the script as though it were an episode of EastEnders or Hollyoaks. There will be certain commentators and one or two people on the backbenches who will say the Conservative party needs to move to the 'right'. They are wrong." | |
| He added that Cameron would follow the example of Thatcher, who rejected calls in the early 1980s to abandon her monetarist economic policies when she declared: "U-turn if you want to, the Lady's not for turning." | |
| Gove said: "When the Heath government in the 1970s decided to change economic course that was a disaster. There were times when Margaret Thatcher was challenged by byelection results in the 1980s but she stuck to her course." | Gove said: "When the Heath government in the 1970s decided to change economic course that was a disaster. There were times when Margaret Thatcher was challenged by byelection results in the 1980s but she stuck to her course." |
| Gove, who admitted that he was "gutted" by the Tories' poor showing in Eastleigh, said the prime minister was taking radical decisions on education and welfare. But he said he needed to remain on the centre ground to maintain support for NHS. | Gove, who admitted that he was "gutted" by the Tories' poor showing in Eastleigh, said the prime minister was taking radical decisions on education and welfare. But he said he needed to remain on the centre ground to maintain support for NHS. |
| "If the public recognise that the government are taking the right decisions for the country then you get rewarded at general election time," he said. "If people think you are changing policy in order to take account of a byelection, or to play party politics that is when the problems arise and people think: do you know what we smell? Inauthenticity here." | "If the public recognise that the government are taking the right decisions for the country then you get rewarded at general election time," he said. "If people think you are changing policy in order to take account of a byelection, or to play party politics that is when the problems arise and people think: do you know what we smell? Inauthenticity here." |
| Gove attributed Ukip's strong showing to a general feeling of unease about mainstream political parties. "There is a greater sense of disengagement from conventional politics now than there has been in my adult lifetime. So the 'none of the above, you're all the same' vote is stronger. | |
| "That is part of a broader distaste for elites. People believe that elites have failed, everything from the expenses scandal, to what has gone wrong in banking to the recent revelations in Mid Staffordshire mean there is a sense there that the establishment has let folk down. That is powerful." | "That is part of a broader distaste for elites. People believe that elites have failed, everything from the expenses scandal, to what has gone wrong in banking to the recent revelations in Mid Staffordshire mean there is a sense there that the establishment has let folk down. That is powerful." |
| The soul searching in the Tory party contrasted with the Lib Dems who were delighted by their win. | The soul searching in the Tory party contrasted with the Lib Dems who were delighted by their win. |
| Simon Hughes, their deputy leader, said the result showed the party could retain its fortresses at the 2015 election, and was a victory for its local organisation. An even more ebullient party president, Tim Farron, claimed: "This is a staggering result and the people who had written us off will have egg all over their faces. It will be a turning point in this parliament and that we are in a position to win this seat completely changes the narrative of the parliament." | Simon Hughes, their deputy leader, said the result showed the party could retain its fortresses at the 2015 election, and was a victory for its local organisation. An even more ebullient party president, Tim Farron, claimed: "This is a staggering result and the people who had written us off will have egg all over their faces. It will be a turning point in this parliament and that we are in a position to win this seat completely changes the narrative of the parliament." |
| Thornton praised the effective fighting spirit in his party, while Farron added that the result would send "ripples of confidence" out to activists across the country. "The message to Tory and Labour is come and have a go if you want. We'll have you in our backyard. We're here to stay. | Thornton praised the effective fighting spirit in his party, while Farron added that the result would send "ripples of confidence" out to activists across the country. "The message to Tory and Labour is come and have a go if you want. We'll have you in our backyard. We're here to stay. |
| "Nick [Clegg's] position is much strengthened not just in the party but in the country as well. The idea that the Liberal Democrats are going like lambs to the slaughter is not true." | "Nick [Clegg's] position is much strengthened not just in the party but in the country as well. The idea that the Liberal Democrats are going like lambs to the slaughter is not true." |
| He said it had been a "shocking" result for both the Tories and Labour, adding that he imagined it would trigger a leadership crisis for Cameron. "I think they'll learn all the wrong lessons, they'll think 'We're not mad enough. Let's become more extreme.'" | He said it had been a "shocking" result for both the Tories and Labour, adding that he imagined it would trigger a leadership crisis for Cameron. "I think they'll learn all the wrong lessons, they'll think 'We're not mad enough. Let's become more extreme.'" |
| But Farron said the result showed the Lib Dems had to take Ukip seriously though their policies on Europe were "certifiable". | But Farron said the result showed the Lib Dems had to take Ukip seriously though their policies on Europe were "certifiable". |
| John Denham, Ed Miliband's parliamentary private secretary and the man charged with getting Labour into a position to win seats in the south of England, said the party had learned from the campaign. He said the Ukip success showed that immigration was a "serious issue for many voters". | John Denham, Ed Miliband's parliamentary private secretary and the man charged with getting Labour into a position to win seats in the south of England, said the party had learned from the campaign. He said the Ukip success showed that immigration was a "serious issue for many voters". |
| "People were concerned about migration. We've got to continue to talk about how we tackle those issues. At the moment not all voters are hearing what we're saying," Denham said. | "People were concerned about migration. We've got to continue to talk about how we tackle those issues. At the moment not all voters are hearing what we're saying," Denham said. |
| "It seems to me it's a catastrophic result for the Tories. They needed to win it. To come third leaves them in a very difficult position. Do they go after the Ukip votes in which they make it even harder to win the centrist votes in constituencies like this?" | "It seems to me it's a catastrophic result for the Tories. They needed to win it. To come third leaves them in a very difficult position. Do they go after the Ukip votes in which they make it even harder to win the centrist votes in constituencies like this?" |
| All the mainstream parties will now have to decide whether to respond to Ukip's growing popularity by becoming more Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant, or instead challenging the party as an empty vehicle of protest. The Tory rightwinger David Davis had already warned that it would represent a crisis for Cameron if Ukip came second, and Cameron will now battle to retain discipline. | All the mainstream parties will now have to decide whether to respond to Ukip's growing popularity by becoming more Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant, or instead challenging the party as an empty vehicle of protest. The Tory rightwinger David Davis had already warned that it would represent a crisis for Cameron if Ukip came second, and Cameron will now battle to retain discipline. |
| The prime minister had hoped he had immunised himself from the Ukip threat by promising a referendum on EU membership after the 2015 election, and highlighting measures to keep out EU migrants. Cameron had also selected a rightwing candidate opposed to Europe and gay marriage. But this byelection showed it did not work and they will now have to rethink their strategy. The result also places even more pressure on George Osborne, the chancellor, to deliver a budget in March that lifts growth and living standards. | The prime minister had hoped he had immunised himself from the Ukip threat by promising a referendum on EU membership after the 2015 election, and highlighting measures to keep out EU migrants. Cameron had also selected a rightwing candidate opposed to Europe and gay marriage. But this byelection showed it did not work and they will now have to rethink their strategy. The result also places even more pressure on George Osborne, the chancellor, to deliver a budget in March that lifts growth and living standards. |
| The Ukip candidate, Diane James, said: "The result was momentous. Three weeks ago we said we wanted to create a four-way marginal; what we have done is create a two-way marginal. To have come from absolutely nowhere to achieve that is a fantastic result." | |
| Nigel Farage, Ukip's leader, promised to put 2,000 candidates into the field in the May county council elections, insisting that Eastleigh "was not a freak result, but shows that something is moving". | Nigel Farage, Ukip's leader, promised to put 2,000 candidates into the field in the May county council elections, insisting that Eastleigh "was not a freak result, but shows that something is moving". |
| He predicted border controls and immigration will become central to the future EU debate in the UK, and claimed a "political earthquake" was coming. | He predicted border controls and immigration will become central to the future EU debate in the UK, and claimed a "political earthquake" was coming. |
| The Conservative chairman, Grant Shapps, said it was rare for a governing party to capture a seat, but insisted that "come a general election voters will make a choice between whether they wanted David Cameron or Ed Miliband walking up Downing Street". | The Conservative chairman, Grant Shapps, said it was rare for a governing party to capture a seat, but insisted that "come a general election voters will make a choice between whether they wanted David Cameron or Ed Miliband walking up Downing Street". |
| Shapps said his backbenchers "will recognise that this was a typical byelection result. Look at the history of byelections throughout the ages – midterm governments tend to get a drubbing". | |
| He added: "All the evidence is that in two and a half years, things can change. We have to redouble our efforts so by the next general election we have a story to tell about the global race for Britain, and how the Conservative party is leading the charge to ensure we are in the right place on the issues that matter, including the ones about which Ukip voters are concerned. | He added: "All the evidence is that in two and a half years, things can change. We have to redouble our efforts so by the next general election we have a story to tell about the global race for Britain, and how the Conservative party is leading the charge to ensure we are in the right place on the issues that matter, including the ones about which Ukip voters are concerned. |
| "It leaves the Labour party and Ed Miliband with all the difficult problems to answer about why he is not making any progress in areas of the south." | "It leaves the Labour party and Ed Miliband with all the difficult problems to answer about why he is not making any progress in areas of the south." |
| Labour came a disappointing fourth, but denied the result casts a shadow over Miliband's claims that his One Nation vision has enough content to appeal in southern England. In 2010, Labour won nearly 10% of the vote in Eastleigh, but instead of the party becoming the vehicle for a protest against the government, Ukip – which had 3.6% share in 2010 – has surged past Labour. | Labour came a disappointing fourth, but denied the result casts a shadow over Miliband's claims that his One Nation vision has enough content to appeal in southern England. In 2010, Labour won nearly 10% of the vote in Eastleigh, but instead of the party becoming the vehicle for a protest against the government, Ukip – which had 3.6% share in 2010 – has surged past Labour. |
| Labour admitted immigration had been the main national issue on the doorstep, and Miliband is to dedicate a TV political broadcast to the issue next Wednesday. | Labour admitted immigration had been the main national issue on the doorstep, and Miliband is to dedicate a TV political broadcast to the issue next Wednesday. |
| Labour insisted it could still win its target seats in the south but added that in Eastleigh it simply did not have the local base in a short campaign to match the Lib Dems' ground operation. | Labour insisted it could still win its target seats in the south but added that in Eastleigh it simply did not have the local base in a short campaign to match the Lib Dems' ground operation. |
| The Lib Dems poured thousands of activists into the seat, they have a stranglehold on the local council and Clegg visited the constituency five times. | The Lib Dems poured thousands of activists into the seat, they have a stranglehold on the local council and Clegg visited the constituency five times. |
| But as recently as the 1994 byelection, when there was a Conservative government and Labour were the main opposition, Labour secured 27.6%. | But as recently as the 1994 byelection, when there was a Conservative government and Labour were the main opposition, Labour secured 27.6%. |
| In 2005, when Labour last won a general election, they scored 20.6% in Eastleigh. | In 2005, when Labour last won a general election, they scored 20.6% in Eastleigh. |