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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Italian election deadlock – Sicilian defence and other checkered moves | Italian election deadlock – Sicilian defence and other checkered moves |
| (4 months later) | |
| Following Monday's sensational election result, what happens next in Italy? Does it actually have a government now? | Following Monday's sensational election result, what happens next in Italy? Does it actually have a government now? |
| Yes. Until a new one can be formed, the prime minister, Mario Monti, and his non-party technocrats continue in office to keep the administrative machine ticking over. It is the forming of a new government that is the problem. | Yes. Until a new one can be formed, the prime minister, Mario Monti, and his non-party technocrats continue in office to keep the administrative machine ticking over. It is the forming of a new government that is the problem. |
| Any ideas? | Any ideas? |
| Two possibilities were taking shape on Tuesday morning. The first was hinted at by Silvio Berlusconi in a TV interview: a "grand coalition" that would include both right and left. "Italy cannot be left ungoverned," he said. "We have to reflect." | Two possibilities were taking shape on Tuesday morning. The first was hinted at by Silvio Berlusconi in a TV interview: a "grand coalition" that would include both right and left. "Italy cannot be left ungoverned," he said. "We have to reflect." |
| Indeed! | Indeed! |
| A straightforward partnership between Berlusconi's rightwing alliance and Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left bloc would be unworkable. It would span almost the entire political spectrum. On the one hand you'd have radical leftwingers from the Left Ecology Freedom party (SEL) allied to Bersani's Democratic party (PD). On the other, yoked with Berlusconi's Freedom People (PdL) movement, there's the Northern League, some of whose members would like, for example, to have the Italian coastguard opening fire on boats loaded with clandestine immigrants in the Mediterranean. | A straightforward partnership between Berlusconi's rightwing alliance and Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left bloc would be unworkable. It would span almost the entire political spectrum. On the one hand you'd have radical leftwingers from the Left Ecology Freedom party (SEL) allied to Bersani's Democratic party (PD). On the other, yoked with Berlusconi's Freedom People (PdL) movement, there's the Northern League, some of whose members would like, for example, to have the Italian coastguard opening fire on boats loaded with clandestine immigrants in the Mediterranean. |
| Could a more cohesive government be formed? | Could a more cohesive government be formed? |
| Jettisoning the more radical wings of both alliances to create a PD-PdL coalition would certainly narrow the ideological distance between the two wings. And if Monti were brought in to head it, then that would help calm the markets. But, as Roberto D'Alimonte, the professor of political science at the business-oriented LUISS University in Rome, put it this morning a left-right coalition "would be a huge favour to [Beppe] Grillo" – comedian and co-founder of the insurgent Five Star Movement (M5S). It would add substance and credibility to Grillo's central argument – that the established political parties are all the same and that his own group is the only true alternative. D'Alimonte thought that the comic could get 50% or more at the next election if the centre-left and centre-right united. | Jettisoning the more radical wings of both alliances to create a PD-PdL coalition would certainly narrow the ideological distance between the two wings. And if Monti were brought in to head it, then that would help calm the markets. But, as Roberto D'Alimonte, the professor of political science at the business-oriented LUISS University in Rome, put it this morning a left-right coalition "would be a huge favour to [Beppe] Grillo" – comedian and co-founder of the insurgent Five Star Movement (M5S). It would add substance and credibility to Grillo's central argument – that the established political parties are all the same and that his own group is the only true alternative. D'Alimonte thought that the comic could get 50% or more at the next election if the centre-left and centre-right united. |
| So what's the alternative? | So what's the alternative? |
| The second option is what – to borrow from the lexicon of chess – might be termed the Sicilian defence. On Sicily, regional elections were held last October in which the M5S emerged as the biggest party. But it doesn't have the governorship, which was decided in a separate ballot. Since then, the new governor, Rosario Crocetta, has secured a majority because of defections from other parties. But while he, his supporters and allies were still in a minority, he formed an administration that was able to pass legislation with the spasmodic backing of the M5S's regional parliamentarians. | The second option is what – to borrow from the lexicon of chess – might be termed the Sicilian defence. On Sicily, regional elections were held last October in which the M5S emerged as the biggest party. But it doesn't have the governorship, which was decided in a separate ballot. Since then, the new governor, Rosario Crocetta, has secured a majority because of defections from other parties. But while he, his supporters and allies were still in a minority, he formed an administration that was able to pass legislation with the spasmodic backing of the M5S's regional parliamentarians. |
| But isn't Grillo against what he calls "stitch-ups"? | But isn't Grillo against what he calls "stitch-ups"? |
| Well, that term is open to many interpretations. He has not so far ruled out in so many words informal support for a centre-left government. In any case, as he and his followers are keen to stress, Grillo is not the leader of the M5S, but its "megaphone". Its elected representatives are free to take their own decisions and by and large they are altogether more sober than their flamboyant frontman. At least one M5S spokesman has indicated that they could be open to solutions that would ensure Italy remained governable. The Sicilian defence move was clearly going around in the mind of Enrico Letta, Bersani's deputy, on Monday night. After having initially said the only solution would be early elections, he did a swift U-turn and said that it would be up to the PD to explore ways of forming a government. | Well, that term is open to many interpretations. He has not so far ruled out in so many words informal support for a centre-left government. In any case, as he and his followers are keen to stress, Grillo is not the leader of the M5S, but its "megaphone". Its elected representatives are free to take their own decisions and by and large they are altogether more sober than their flamboyant frontman. At least one M5S spokesman has indicated that they could be open to solutions that would ensure Italy remained governable. The Sicilian defence move was clearly going around in the mind of Enrico Letta, Bersani's deputy, on Monday night. After having initially said the only solution would be early elections, he did a swift U-turn and said that it would be up to the PD to explore ways of forming a government. |
| So Bersani ought now to approach Grillo? | So Bersani ought now to approach Grillo? |
| Informally, perhaps. But, under the Italian system, in order to form a government, you need a head of state. It's the president who conducts the negotiations leading to the appointment of a prime minister. And that is where things get even more complicated. | Informally, perhaps. But, under the Italian system, in order to form a government, you need a head of state. It's the president who conducts the negotiations leading to the appointment of a prime minister. And that is where things get even more complicated. |
| Uh, oh. Why? | Uh, oh. Why? |
| President Giorgio Napolitano's mandate expires on 15 May, and the process of selecting a successor has to be set in motion long before that. The Italian head of state is chosen by an assembly that includes the members of both houses of parliament together with 58 representative of the regions. Since there is no time to hold fresh elections before a decision has to be made, Napolitano's successor is going to have to be elected by the legislature that has emerged from Sunday and Monday's inconclusive ballot. | President Giorgio Napolitano's mandate expires on 15 May, and the process of selecting a successor has to be set in motion long before that. The Italian head of state is chosen by an assembly that includes the members of both houses of parliament together with 58 representative of the regions. Since there is no time to hold fresh elections before a decision has to be made, Napolitano's successor is going to have to be elected by the legislature that has emerged from Sunday and Monday's inconclusive ballot. |
| Is that going to be so difficult? | Is that going to be so difficult? |
| Not necessarily. One candidate known to be acceptable to both the centre-left and the centre-right is Giuliano Amato, a widely respected former Socialist prime minister. But before the electoral assembly can be called, the two chambers must have speakers. In the chamber of deputies, the centre-left has an outright majority (thanks to bonus seats allotted under Italy's idiosyncratic electoral law). So no problem there. But in the senate, neither right nor left has control. And agreeing to a speaker for the upper house could be difficult. | Not necessarily. One candidate known to be acceptable to both the centre-left and the centre-right is Giuliano Amato, a widely respected former Socialist prime minister. But before the electoral assembly can be called, the two chambers must have speakers. In the chamber of deputies, the centre-left has an outright majority (thanks to bonus seats allotted under Italy's idiosyncratic electoral law). So no problem there. But in the senate, neither right nor left has control. And agreeing to a speaker for the upper house could be difficult. |
| Why? | Why? |
| For one thing, the speaker has extensive powers over the legislative programme. But, more importantly, he or she is the second-ranking official of state. So if the president dies, or is otherwise removed from office, the Senate speaker becomes head of state. It is not a decision to be taken lightly. | For one thing, the speaker has extensive powers over the legislative programme. But, more importantly, he or she is the second-ranking official of state. So if the president dies, or is otherwise removed from office, the Senate speaker becomes head of state. It is not a decision to be taken lightly. |
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