The Carpetbagger’s 2013 Oscar Predictions

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To prepare for Sunday’s Academy Awards broadcast, here’s the Carpetbagger’s inside look at the front-runners and back stories.

Best Picture: “Argo”

Contender: “Lincoln,” “Life of Pi”<br />

Long Shots:  “Amour,” “Les Misérables,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Django Unchained,” “Zero Dark Thirty”

One of the most unpredictable best picture races in years has had at least three front-runners in three months, but Ben Affleck’s deftly made comic thriller was sneaking up on the pack.

“Argo,” set against both Hollywood and the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, scored all the usual best picture predictors (nominations in the acting, writing and editing categories) save one: director. And whether that snub by the directors’ branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences actually helped his cause, by making his film appear to be the always-lovable underdog, is hard to say for certain.

Undeniable, though, is Mr. Affleck’s charm on the awards-season circuit, where he has parlayed his movie star looks, humor and filmmaking cred to good effect as he woos Oscar voters.

Steven Spielberg’s near-biopic of Abraham Lincoln (Daniel Day-Lewis) received 12 nominations, a sign of the Academy’s devotion to it. Ang Lee’s 3-D spiritual journey of a boy stranded at sea with a tiger landed 11 (though not a single one in a crucial group, acting).

Both have been hits at the box office. But without early support from industry guilds they are unlikely to unseat “Argo.”

Best Director: Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”

Contender: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

Long Shots: Michael Haneke, “Amour”; Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”

The unfilmable story of a boy lost at sea with a tiger turned out to be very filmable after all in Ang Lee’s hands. His cinematic vision — from casting an unknown in the lead to using 3-D inventively — carried this movie, which has done more than $500 million at the box office globally. His combination of artistry and technology earned many fans in the Academy’s craft branches, and the uplift of the original novel resonated, especially when he explained his inspiration to Oscar voters.

There is no question that Steven Spielberg is revered within Hollywood; there is a standing ovation nearly every time he receives kudos in an industry room. But some insiders griped that his film was too much of a history lesson, and that the campaign behind it was heavy-handed. Still, it is the kind of deeply felt historical subject matter for which Mr. Spielberg (who won for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan”) has been rewarded in the past.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

Contender: Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”

Long Shots: Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”; Denzel Washington, “Flight”

In August, when the first photos of Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln circulated long before the release of Steven Spielberg’s film, the Internet was instantly convinced: This would be the next Oscar winner for best actor. Add in his year of preparation, his devotion to staying in character on set — where he sent anachronistic text messages as Lincoln — and the much-discussed high-pitched voice, and there was no question. Mr. Day-Lewis is the male Meryl Streep, synonymous with exemplary acting.

Only a triple threat could dream of unseating Abe. As the tragic hero Valjean, Hugh Jackman sings, emotes and battles (the equivalent of a dance number in Tom Hooper’s musical), carrying the two-and-a-half-hour film along with, occasionally, a co-star. He even auditioned for the privilege of singing live. Still, the film has its detractors, and fans may be more likely to reward his co-star Anne Hathaway. Que sera sera.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Contender: Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Long Shots: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”; Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Since emerging as an Oscar contender two years ago with “Winter’s Bone,” Jennifer Lawrence has proved herself a versatile actress and a box office superstar in “The Hunger Games.” Her performance as the volatile Tiffany in David O. Russell’s offbeat comedy is the kind of multilayered turn that actors, the largest voting body in the Academy, love. And though her outspokenness sometimes gets her in hot water, she has learned to play to the Academy and remains charmingly down to earth on the trophy circuit. Emmanuelle Riva, who will celebrate her 86th birthday on Oscar night, is the oldest nominee ever in the category, and her role as a dying music teacher in “Amour” speaks of decades of experience. Academy members like the film (it has five nominations) and may want to reward her for her work in seminal films of the French New Wave, especially since they may not get another chance to recognize her contributions.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Contender: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”; Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Long Shots: Alan Arkin, “Argo”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”

Perhaps the hardest category to call. It has been 32 years since Robert De Niro won an Oscar, as the Weinstein Company has reminded voters, borrowing from the campaign playbook that won Meryl Streep a statuette last year. It helps that as the football-obsessed father in David O. Russell’s film, Mr. De Niro gives his most nuanced performance in years, crying real (and unscripted) tears — and he has been doing the same promoting the movie. When even the Raging Bull admits that he wants the little gold guy, the game is on.

Christoph Waltz stole “Django Unchained,” but the Academy rewarded him just three years ago for “Inglourious Basterds.” As an opinionated congressman Tommy Lee Jones delivers some of the best lines in “Lincoln,” and there’s enough of a mix of gravitas and heart to differentiate it from his Oscar-winning turn in “The Fugitive.” But he is not much for campaigning, which could have hurt him.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

Contender: Sally Field, “Lincoln”

Long Shots: Amy Adams, “The Master”; Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”; Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Anne Hathaway doesn’t have much screen time as Fantine, but what she does have is searingly memorable, even parody-able. Her rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream,” delivered in tight close-up with real tears, was such a dramatic highlight that it became an instant meme. And Ms. Hathaway has been a presence on the awards circuit, collecting precursor prizes and singing whenever possible to remind Oscar voters that, yes, there was no Auto-Tuning on all those takes. Her dream was clearly to be up there, thanking the Academy.

Sally Field has made it known that she lobbied to play Mary Todd Lincoln. In real life she is older and thinner than Abraham Lincoln’s off-balance wife, but she added 20 pounds. In character she communed with her on-screen husband, Daniel Day-Lewis, and her portrayal of their domestic drama provides a counterpoint to his life as a politician. She has been letting potential Oscar voters know how much the role means to her. But Ms. Field has memorably collected two Oscars already.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, “Argo”

Contender: David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Long Shots: Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”; David Magee, “Life Of Pi”; Tony Kushner, “Lincoln”

Chris Terrio won this award from the Writers Guild, besting both Tony Kushner and David O. Russell as well as David Magee. Mr. Terrio’s film has the most momentum from other industry groups and a script that’s a skillful interplay of period political thriller and Hollywood comedy. Mr. Kushner’s script, even pared down from its original 500 pages, may have been too scholarly, and Mr. Magee’s film is considered a directorial, not a writerly, achievement. But Mr. Russell is coming on strong with memorably written characters that actors — the Academy’s largest faction — especially love, and voters could hand him a screenwriting prize in lieu of the director statuette.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Contender: Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”

Long Shot: Michael Haneke, “Amour”; John Gatins, “Flight”; Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, “Moonrise Kingdom”

A writerly dead heat for Mark Boal, Quentin Tarantino and Michael Haneke. On the theory that this is a year in which voters will want to spread their affection around, it could go to any of these three. Mr. Boal, who began his career as an investigative journalist, may have the slight edge because he won the Writers Guild Award in the same category, though with different competition. Then again, he also won an original screenplay Oscar just three years ago, and it’s hard to know whether the attention on the veracity of his account of the hunt for Osama bin Laden helped or hurt him. Mr. Tarantino’s slavery revenge fantasy has a multitude of fans (and fanboys), and there’s no question that his dialogue is ever-quotable. But don’t discount Mr. Haneke, an auteur’s auteur, who may be recognized for a film that many consider the pinnacle of his career, though a foreign-language entry winning this prize is unlikely.

Best Animated Feature: “Wreck-it Ralph,” Rich Moore

Contender: “Brave,” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman

Long Shot: “Frankenweenie,” Tim Burton; “Paranorman,” Sam Fell and Chris Butler; “The Pirates! Band Of Misfits,” Peter Lord

In a year when the animation branch of the Academy highlighted three smaller stop-motion films, it is still the two digital blockbusters from Disney (“Wreck-It Ralph”) and Pixar (“Brave”) that lead the race, but the margin between them is pixel slim. “Ralph,” a new take on the “it’s O.K. to be different” narrative, is set in a visually inventive video-game world, with much welcome nostalgia for the generation that grew up post-Pac-Man. “Brave” is a classic story of an unwilling princess, with a twist: She’s got the independence and the archery skills of a Katniss Everdeen (and better hair). Both films found huge audiences, and either could take the prize. And since Disney owns Pixar, it’s a win for the studio in any case.

Best Documentary: “Searching For Sugar Man,” Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn

Contender: “How To Survive A Plague,” David France and Howard Gertler

Long Shot: “5 Broken Cameras,” Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi; “The Gatekeepers,” Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon; “The Invisible War,” Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering

The story behind the debut feature from Malik Bendjelloul is almost too good be true: A forgotten American singer of the 1960s known as Rodriguez learns late in life that he is wildly famous in South Africa, where he has long been presumed dead. The film has won critics’ prizes and nearly every precursor award; this year, the first in recent memory in which all Academy members are invited to vote for best documentary, should reward a crowd pleaser like this one.

Two other hopefuls, “The Gatekeepers” and “5 Broken Cameras,” are set against the Mideast conflict, so they may cancel each other out. “The Invisible War,” about sexual abuse in the military, has resulted in House hearings, a mark of pride for any documentary. And “How to Survive a Plague,” about the early days of AIDS activism, has been roundly well received, and its subject is one that many in Hollywood support. In another year that could have been enough. But it does not have quite the broad appeal of “Sugar Man.”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Amour,” Austria

Contender: None

Long Shot: “Kon-tiki,” Norway; “No,” Chile; “A Royal Affair,” Denmark; “War Witch,” Canada

It is nearly unheard-of for a foreign language entry to make much of a splash outside its category, and Michael Haneke’s film about an aging couple in Paris facing death made four big ones: best original screenplay, best actress, best director and best picture. All that marquee love from the Academy means, at the very least, it’s the front-runner in the foreign category. (Although filmed in French, it is the selection for Mr. Haneke’s native Austria.)

A win by another film, perhaps Denmark’s “Royal Affair” — based on a historical episode in the 18th century involving a mentally ill king, his English-born queen and a progressive-thinking German doctor — would be a big upset. Because of voting quirks this category has been confounding in the past, but in this case it’s “Amour” for keeps.