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Europe: the Right Italy Europe: the Right Italy
(7 months later)
The European economic crisis and the austerity policies that came in its wake have had a deforming effect on democracy in almost every member state. Politicians in power have had to defend decisions they deem unavoidable even where they privately believe them to be wrong, hoping only to wrest a little popularity from marginal successes in limiting cuts or from blips here and there in the employment or the trade figures.The European economic crisis and the austerity policies that came in its wake have had a deforming effect on democracy in almost every member state. Politicians in power have had to defend decisions they deem unavoidable even where they privately believe them to be wrong, hoping only to wrest a little popularity from marginal successes in limiting cuts or from blips here and there in the employment or the trade figures.
Politicians out of power have had to try to make the most of the small differences – that they would not cut as much, that they would cut a bit differently – that divide them from those in government. Others, some out of conviction and some simply in pursuit of advantage, have identified a constituency of anger and discontent ripe for exploitation. This is a rich vote bank on which to draw, and nowhere has this been truer than in Italy, which goes to the polls this weekend in a general election whose results could have an impact well beyond its borders.Politicians out of power have had to try to make the most of the small differences – that they would not cut as much, that they would cut a bit differently – that divide them from those in government. Others, some out of conviction and some simply in pursuit of advantage, have identified a constituency of anger and discontent ripe for exploitation. This is a rich vote bank on which to draw, and nowhere has this been truer than in Italy, which goes to the polls this weekend in a general election whose results could have an impact well beyond its borders.
There Silvio Berlusconi has managed to re-emerge again, for the umpteenth time, as a leading player in Italian politics by casting himself as the champion of ordinary folk against a heartless Europe and particularly against a mindlessly rigorous Germany. He has underlined this undoubtedly appealing message by promising to end the tax on primary homes introduced in 2012 by the outgoing prime minister, Mario Monti, and to refund last year's payments, if the political alliance he leads in all but name should be victorious. If this spooks the markets, as it might, interest rates for Italian bonds could shoot into the stratosphere again.There Silvio Berlusconi has managed to re-emerge again, for the umpteenth time, as a leading player in Italian politics by casting himself as the champion of ordinary folk against a heartless Europe and particularly against a mindlessly rigorous Germany. He has underlined this undoubtedly appealing message by promising to end the tax on primary homes introduced in 2012 by the outgoing prime minister, Mario Monti, and to refund last year's payments, if the political alliance he leads in all but name should be victorious. If this spooks the markets, as it might, interest rates for Italian bonds could shoot into the stratosphere again.
The publication of opinion polls was stopped by law a few days ago but until recently they suggested that the Berlusconi campaign was working. The lead enjoyed by the centre-left coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani was eroding, support for Berlusconi's People of Freedom party and its ally the Northern League was growing, while Monti's centrist coalition and the maverick Five Star Movement, an anti-party led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, each hovered at the 15% mark. This kind of arithmetic is not good news. Italy could end up with a coalition between Bersani and Monti, a lacklustre but adequate result, or it could find Berlusconi back in power again, even if this time he would probably be behind the throne rather than on it.The publication of opinion polls was stopped by law a few days ago but until recently they suggested that the Berlusconi campaign was working. The lead enjoyed by the centre-left coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani was eroding, support for Berlusconi's People of Freedom party and its ally the Northern League was growing, while Monti's centrist coalition and the maverick Five Star Movement, an anti-party led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, each hovered at the 15% mark. This kind of arithmetic is not good news. Italy could end up with a coalition between Bersani and Monti, a lacklustre but adequate result, or it could find Berlusconi back in power again, even if this time he would probably be behind the throne rather than on it.
That would be an unhappy moment for Italy. Berlusconi, three times prime minister, has promised but never delivered reform in any area. He has bent the Italian legal system to his personal advantage, dominated and degraded much of the Italian media, and turned national life into a soap opera about himself. In power again, he could take decisions which might lead to Italy leaving the eurozone. Under him, Italy might well demand a bailout, but if it came with a new austerity package, the result might be a return to the lira. The lurching, patched-up structure which is the eurozone might not be able to contain the damage.That would be an unhappy moment for Italy. Berlusconi, three times prime minister, has promised but never delivered reform in any area. He has bent the Italian legal system to his personal advantage, dominated and degraded much of the Italian media, and turned national life into a soap opera about himself. In power again, he could take decisions which might lead to Italy leaving the eurozone. Under him, Italy might well demand a bailout, but if it came with a new austerity package, the result might be a return to the lira. The lurching, patched-up structure which is the eurozone might not be able to contain the damage.
Pity the poor Germans, upon whose shoulders rests the principal responsibility for keeping Europe going, with Italy at one end of the continent playing with fire and Britain at the other doing the same. But that is not to say that the policies Germany has been instrumental in shaping are the right ones.Pity the poor Germans, upon whose shoulders rests the principal responsibility for keeping Europe going, with Italy at one end of the continent playing with fire and Britain at the other doing the same. But that is not to say that the policies Germany has been instrumental in shaping are the right ones.
The slogan of Bersani's Democratic party is L'Italia Giusta, "The Right Italy". Bersani said in a recent interview that this means "a country restored – from a moral standpoint". While campaigning he said he had found "a very angry Italy" but one which understood that "protests by themselves will lead us nowhere". But, as he implies, "The Right Italy" needs a "Right Europe" of which it can be a part. The most recent, informal polls suggest that the Berlusconi bandwagon is faltering a little in this last week. If so, the critical questions will be whether undecided voters will drift off toward the essentially irrelevant figure of Grillo, or whether they will listen to Bersani's sensible if sobering message.The slogan of Bersani's Democratic party is L'Italia Giusta, "The Right Italy". Bersani said in a recent interview that this means "a country restored – from a moral standpoint". While campaigning he said he had found "a very angry Italy" but one which understood that "protests by themselves will lead us nowhere". But, as he implies, "The Right Italy" needs a "Right Europe" of which it can be a part. The most recent, informal polls suggest that the Berlusconi bandwagon is faltering a little in this last week. If so, the critical questions will be whether undecided voters will drift off toward the essentially irrelevant figure of Grillo, or whether they will listen to Bersani's sensible if sobering message.
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