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Ed Miliband and the week in politics: something blue and something new Ed Miliband and the week in politics: something blue and something new
(7 months later)
Two speeches on Thursday, one by a man who has been this country's prime minister, the other by a man who wants to be our next one, mark what may be a watershed moment in the party politics of this parliament.Two speeches on Thursday, one by a man who has been this country's prime minister, the other by a man who wants to be our next one, mark what may be a watershed moment in the party politics of this parliament.
Sir John Major's speech at Chatham House supporting David Cameron's EU referendum proposal was a decent speech by a decent man. But it could not escape being a reminder of what was, and still is, wrong with the Conservative party.Sir John Major's speech at Chatham House supporting David Cameron's EU referendum proposal was a decent speech by a decent man. But it could not escape being a reminder of what was, and still is, wrong with the Conservative party.
Significant though the issue unquestionably is, Europe is neither the most important question facing Britain today nor the one that tops most people's list of concerns. But it is the number one obsession of large parts of the Tory party, and that obsession warps everything else.Significant though the issue unquestionably is, Europe is neither the most important question facing Britain today nor the one that tops most people's list of concerns. But it is the number one obsession of large parts of the Tory party, and that obsession warps everything else.
Sir John is right that a vote to stay in the EU would be good for Britain, but he of all people ought to know that a Tory party consumed by the European issue is not good for this country – and will deserve to be punished for it.Sir John is right that a vote to stay in the EU would be good for Britain, but he of all people ought to know that a Tory party consumed by the European issue is not good for this country – and will deserve to be punished for it.
Ever since Mr Cameron focused his attention on this predominantly internal party issue last month, the Tory party's poll ratings have suffered. The Guardian's ICM poll this week, showing the Tories down at 29% and a strong Labour lead of 12 points, was striking evidence of the penalty the Conservative party is paying. ICM's findings have subsequently been confirmed by other polls this week where the figures are in similar territory.Ever since Mr Cameron focused his attention on this predominantly internal party issue last month, the Tory party's poll ratings have suffered. The Guardian's ICM poll this week, showing the Tories down at 29% and a strong Labour lead of 12 points, was striking evidence of the penalty the Conservative party is paying. ICM's findings have subsequently been confirmed by other polls this week where the figures are in similar territory.
The Tories' wilful misreading of the public mood is inescapably an opportunity for Labour to cement its appeal. But it is also a challenge to the opposition too. To win an election and govern effectively, Labour will have to win the voters' confidence, not simply offer itself as the vessel through which voters express their irritation with Tory failings. The purpose of Ed Miliband's speech in Bedford was to begin the task of winning that confidence.The Tories' wilful misreading of the public mood is inescapably an opportunity for Labour to cement its appeal. But it is also a challenge to the opposition too. To win an election and govern effectively, Labour will have to win the voters' confidence, not simply offer itself as the vessel through which voters express their irritation with Tory failings. The purpose of Ed Miliband's speech in Bedford was to begin the task of winning that confidence.
Mr Miliband's overarching aims were to establish the declining living standards of ordinary people as the central battleground of the 2015 election and to address Labour's trailing poll ratings on economic management.Mr Miliband's overarching aims were to establish the declining living standards of ordinary people as the central battleground of the 2015 election and to address Labour's trailing poll ratings on economic management.
His narrative of modern Britain, as he explained to our political editor this week, is that the disproportionately growing wealth of those at the top is not just squeezing the living standards of those on the middle and bottom rungs of the ladder, but is also smothering the chances of growth.His narrative of modern Britain, as he explained to our political editor this week, is that the disproportionately growing wealth of those at the top is not just squeezing the living standards of those on the middle and bottom rungs of the ladder, but is also smothering the chances of growth.
The message on Thursday was that rewards and incentives for the many can be both the engine of new growth and also a more generous form of wealth distribution. It is a powerful message, giving a bit of substance to the rather nebulous One Nation slogan, and potentially well suited to hard economic times.The message on Thursday was that rewards and incentives for the many can be both the engine of new growth and also a more generous form of wealth distribution. It is a powerful message, giving a bit of substance to the rather nebulous One Nation slogan, and potentially well suited to hard economic times.
And while Mr Miliband's specific pledges of a (welcome) mansion tax on property worth over £2m and the (questionable) restoration of a 10p in the pound tax bracket do not seal the deal, they are clear markers of the direction that a Labour government could take. Promises of cheaper train tickets and energy bills are easier to make than deliver, but this is plainly fertile terrain.And while Mr Miliband's specific pledges of a (welcome) mansion tax on property worth over £2m and the (questionable) restoration of a 10p in the pound tax bracket do not seal the deal, they are clear markers of the direction that a Labour government could take. Promises of cheaper train tickets and energy bills are easier to make than deliver, but this is plainly fertile terrain.
There was tactical cunning in Mr Miliband's speech as well as a big picture. Embracing the 10p tax pledge – which has its supporters on the Tory benches – cramps George Osborne's style in his budget planning. Taking up the mansion tax gives Labour something substantive to talk about to the Liberal Democrats if a differently configured hung parliament emerges in 2015.There was tactical cunning in Mr Miliband's speech as well as a big picture. Embracing the 10p tax pledge – which has its supporters on the Tory benches – cramps George Osborne's style in his budget planning. Taking up the mansion tax gives Labour something substantive to talk about to the Liberal Democrats if a differently configured hung parliament emerges in 2015.
Openly criticising Gordon Brown goes some way towards answering taunts that Labour's Eds are part of the problem not the solution. It would be naive to pretend that this speech is a game-changer.Openly criticising Gordon Brown goes some way towards answering taunts that Labour's Eds are part of the problem not the solution. It would be naive to pretend that this speech is a game-changer.
Labour has an economic credibility deficit that will not be overcome by a single speech. Mr Miliband has not won the argument yet and still seems reluctant to talk about Britain's economic problems in the wider global context with which Mr Cameron, for all the false conclusions he draws, seems more comfortable.Labour has an economic credibility deficit that will not be overcome by a single speech. Mr Miliband has not won the argument yet and still seems reluctant to talk about Britain's economic problems in the wider global context with which Mr Cameron, for all the false conclusions he draws, seems more comfortable.
But Mr Miliband has begun to write something specific on what for too long has been Labour's fiscal blank page. For that alone, he deserves credit for a good day's work.But Mr Miliband has begun to write something specific on what for too long has been Labour's fiscal blank page. For that alone, he deserves credit for a good day's work.
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