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| London's drowning | London's drowning |
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| London overwhelmed by a huge tidal surge in The Flood By John Walton BBC News With this summer's torrential downpours still fresh in the memory a new £25m disaster movie, The Flood, charts the devastation of central London. It's a dramatic vision, but could it really happen? | |
| It started out as a Hollywood-style disaster movie, but following the floods in Gloucestershire and Yorkshire this summer, Tony Mitchell's movie The Flood has the sound of something a little closer to real life. | It started out as a Hollywood-style disaster movie, but following the floods in Gloucestershire and Yorkshire this summer, Tony Mitchell's movie The Flood has the sound of something a little closer to real life. |
| href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/magazine_enl_1187254527/html/1.stm" onClick="window.open('http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/magazine_enl_1187254527/html/1.stm', '1187254608', 'toolbar=0,scrollbars=0,location=0,statusbar=0,menubar=0,resizable=1,width=600,height=518,left=312,top=100'); return false;">London floods in 1928 href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/magazine_enl_1187254527/html/1.stm" onClick="window.open('http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/07/magazine_enl_1187254527/html/1.stm', '1187254608', 'toolbar=0,scrollbars=0,location=0,statusbar=0,menubar=0,resizable=1,width=600,height=518,left=312,top=100'); return false;" >Enlarge Image As time passed the feel of the project began to change and, "science fiction soon became science prediction", Mitchell has said. | |
| The experts, though, disagree. Speaking for the Environment Agency, Rachael Hill says the film has a lot more fiction than fact, especially as far as "overtopping" London's main flood defence, the Thames Barrier, is concerned. | |
| "If you had a tsunami coming up the Thames that would overtop the barrier, then that water would have spread out along Kent and Essex, or gone round either side of the barrier," she says. | "If you had a tsunami coming up the Thames that would overtop the barrier, then that water would have spread out along Kent and Essex, or gone round either side of the barrier," she says. |
| The risks | The risks |
| IF THE BARRIER DIDN'T EXIST Launch Animation But that's not to say floods along the Thames Estuary aren't a very real problem. | |
| The threat has been with us for centuries. The most recent major disaster took place in 1953 and saw over 300 people killed. It was this flooding of Canvey Island and the east coast that inspired the construction of the Thames Barrier, which was in position 30 years later. | The threat has been with us for centuries. The most recent major disaster took place in 1953 and saw over 300 people killed. It was this flooding of Canvey Island and the east coast that inspired the construction of the Thames Barrier, which was in position 30 years later. |
| See how the barrier works | See how the barrier works |
| The threat of flooding is slowly increasing as time passes. Climate change is raising sea levels on the one hand, while on the other London is feeling the effects of subsidence, and is sinking a couple of millimetres each year. | The threat of flooding is slowly increasing as time passes. Climate change is raising sea levels on the one hand, while on the other London is feeling the effects of subsidence, and is sinking a couple of millimetres each year. |
| In addition, climate change also makes storm surges both more likely and increasingly unpredictable. | In addition, climate change also makes storm surges both more likely and increasingly unpredictable. |
| See the Thames' flood plain, home to over a million peopleEnlarge Map But Ms Hill says this is all being planned for by the Thames Estuary 2100 project, for which she is the technical strategy manager. | See the Thames' flood plain, home to over a million peopleEnlarge Map But Ms Hill says this is all being planned for by the Thames Estuary 2100 project, for which she is the technical strategy manager. |
| The project has the job of planning the flood management of the Thames for the next 100 years. Their working estimates for sea level rises during this time period span anything from under 1m (3ft 3in) to some of the most extreme global warming predictions that would see sea levels rise by as much as 4.2m (13ft 9in). | The project has the job of planning the flood management of the Thames for the next 100 years. Their working estimates for sea level rises during this time period span anything from under 1m (3ft 3in) to some of the most extreme global warming predictions that would see sea levels rise by as much as 4.2m (13ft 9in). |
| "That 4.2m scenario is almost the sort of Al Gore scenario of the worst thing that climate change could do, including the demise of the arctic ice sheets, and everything else, so that is very much the extreme event," she says. | "That 4.2m scenario is almost the sort of Al Gore scenario of the worst thing that climate change could do, including the demise of the arctic ice sheets, and everything else, so that is very much the extreme event," she says. |
| "But we need to make sure we are planning across those scenarios. So our plan is realistic, but it can also be adaptable through this century." | "But we need to make sure we are planning across those scenarios. So our plan is realistic, but it can also be adaptable through this century." |
| The barrier | The barrier |
| A TIDAL SURGE Occurs when low pressure in Atlantic pushes towards the UKSea forced above normal levels, creating hump of waterHump moves down east coast and funnels into Thames EstuaryWater levels increase, and can rise further if combined with high tideSurges to become more frequent and less predictable But what about the Thames Barrier itself? It was defeated by The Floods fictional storm but how will it fare against the real storms and tidal surges of the future? | |
| Ms Hill predicts that the barrier will stand firm: "We certainly know that there will not need to be any major changes to the Thames Barrier. | Ms Hill predicts that the barrier will stand firm: "We certainly know that there will not need to be any major changes to the Thames Barrier. |
| "We don't anticipate any major engineering projects in the Thames Estuary before 2030. If we use the barrier in combination with other options - such as flood storage [see below] - we know that the barrier will be effective up until 2100." | "We don't anticipate any major engineering projects in the Thames Estuary before 2030. If we use the barrier in combination with other options - such as flood storage [see below] - we know that the barrier will be effective up until 2100." |
| She also believes any talk of the need for a second barrier in the river is premature. "It is still one of the things we are looking at, but it certainly isn't being fast-tracked as a result of any of the recent flooding," she says. | She also believes any talk of the need for a second barrier in the river is premature. "It is still one of the things we are looking at, but it certainly isn't being fast-tracked as a result of any of the recent flooding," she says. |
| "If climate change did throw at us this 4.2m [rise] on top of maximum water levels then an outer estuary barrier would be the only solution that would be effective. | "If climate change did throw at us this 4.2m [rise] on top of maximum water levels then an outer estuary barrier would be the only solution that would be effective. |
| "Because we are planning for something more realistic, something around 1m, there are much more sustainable solutions that we will look at first." | "Because we are planning for something more realistic, something around 1m, there are much more sustainable solutions that we will look at first." |
| Making space for water | Making space for water |
| FLOOD RESILIENT HOUSING Houses should have at least two storeys, so people can evade rising waterUse basements as garages or utilities rooms, not bedroomsBuild with brick not timber One of these solutions is flood storage. The idea is simple. In order to stop flood waters overwhelming central London and to save the massive expense of building fresh flood walls and defences, some land could be set aside to act as a safety valve, catching flood waters and storing them until the danger has passed. | FLOOD RESILIENT HOUSING Houses should have at least two storeys, so people can evade rising waterUse basements as garages or utilities rooms, not bedroomsBuild with brick not timber One of these solutions is flood storage. The idea is simple. In order to stop flood waters overwhelming central London and to save the massive expense of building fresh flood walls and defences, some land could be set aside to act as a safety valve, catching flood waters and storing them until the danger has passed. |
| The most likely spots for flood storage are between the barrier and Tilbury, to the east. Ms Hill suggests that any land ear-marked for future flood storage could be used as farmland, playgrounds, parks or nature reserves when not called into action to take the edge off tidal surges. | The most likely spots for flood storage are between the barrier and Tilbury, to the east. Ms Hill suggests that any land ear-marked for future flood storage could be used as farmland, playgrounds, parks or nature reserves when not called into action to take the edge off tidal surges. |
| These are the sort of ideas Ms Hill would like to see employed as the redevelopment of the Thames Gateway area gathers pace. | These are the sort of ideas Ms Hill would like to see employed as the redevelopment of the Thames Gateway area gathers pace. |
| She says: "The majority of developments throughout the Thames flood plain at the moment really don't take account of the fact that they are in a flood risk area, so redevelopment is about making things better." | She says: "The majority of developments throughout the Thames flood plain at the moment really don't take account of the fact that they are in a flood risk area, so redevelopment is about making things better." |
| Turning from the real world of flood management and back to the big screen version Ms Hill has more words of re-assurance: "We are not planning for the scenario they are presenting, as it is so very unlikely, but it's going to be good popcorn viewing." | Turning from the real world of flood management and back to the big screen version Ms Hill has more words of re-assurance: "We are not planning for the scenario they are presenting, as it is so very unlikely, but it's going to be good popcorn viewing." |
| The Flood is due to be released on 24 August. | The Flood is due to be released on 24 August. |
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Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |