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North Korea nuclear test suspected after earthquake North Korea nuclear test takes place
(35 minutes later)
North Korea is believed to have conducted its anticipated third nuclear test after an earthquake was detected near the underground site where it had been expected to carry out the explosion. The UN security council is convening an emergency meeting in New York, reports say. North Korea has conducted a nuclear test in defiance of international bans – a development signalled by an earthquake detected in the country shortly before noon on Tuesday and later confirmed by the regime.
The US Geological Survey said on Tuesday it had detected the earthquake in North Korea. South Korean reports described the quake as manmade. If confirmed it will be the third time North Korea has set off a nuclear bomb. The government in Pyongyang said scientists set off a "miniaturised" nuclear device and that the test was conducted in a safe manner.
In Japan the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, immediately convened his country's security council. "I have ordered that we consider every possible way to address this issue, including our own sanctions, while co-operating with other countries," he said after the meeting. Officials in South Korea, Japan and the US had earlier announced they were almost certain a controlled nuclear explosion had taken place at or near the site where the North's two previous tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009.
The quake occurred at 11.57am Korean time (2.57am GMT) on Tuesday and South Korea's presidential office said that it was "likely" a nuclear test. North Korea is not prone to seismic activity. South Korean, US and Japanese seismic monitoring agencies put the magnitude of the quake at between 4.9 and 5.2. Diplomats said the UN security council was convening an emergency meeting in response. A UN body that monitors nuclear tests said it had detected an "unusual seismic event" in North Korea. "The event shows clear explosion-like characteristics and its location is roughly congruent with the 2006 and 2009 [North Korea] nuclear tests," said Tibor Toth, the executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation in Vienna.
The USGS said the epicentre of the quake was a kilometre underground and close to the North's known nuclear test site. It was 24km north-east of Sungjibaegam in North Korea. The agency said it constituted "a clear threat to international peace and security, and challenges efforts made to strengthen global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, in particular by ending nuclear testing".
The South Korean defence ministry estimated the quake could have been caused by a bomb of between six and seven kilotons. Seismic activity had been picked up by the US geological survey and monitoring stations in South Korea.
Kim Min-seok, a South Korean defence ministry spokesman, said North Korea had informed China and the United States in advance of its plans to conduct a nuclear test. It was not clear when this warning was given. It appeared to be a more powerful blast than the North's previous two tests. Experts in South Korea, the US and Japan put the quake at magnitudes of between 4.7 and 5.2.
"There is a high possibility that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test," said Chi Heoncheol, an earthquake specialist at the South Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources. Chi said earthquakes of magnitude 3.9 and 4.5 respectively were detected in the North's 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests. Earthquakes of magnitude 3.9 and 4.5 respectively were detected in the North's 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests
A Japanese government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, said: "We think it is possible it came about as a result of a nuclear test by North Korea from looking at past cases."
Yosuke Igarashi, an official at the Japan Meteorological Agency, said: "A natural earthquake normally starts with a smaller tremor followed by a larger one. This quake's strength was the same throughout."Yosuke Igarashi, an official at the Japan Meteorological Agency, said: "A natural earthquake normally starts with a smaller tremor followed by a larger one. This quake's strength was the same throughout."
In Vienna international monitoring group the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) said it was analysing an "unusual seismic event" in North Korea. The South Korean government raised its military alert level, while Japan was preparing to dispatch military aircraft to look for signs of atmospheric radiation.
The CTBTO is an independent body that monitors for nuclear tests and has 270 facilities around the world that check for quakes, radioactive particles in the atmosphere and other evidence. In Tokyo the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, called an emergency meeting of his security council to discuss Japan's response. "I have ordered that we consider every possible way to address this issue, including our own sanctions, while co-operating with other countries," he said after the meeting.
In a statement issued earlier on Tuesday North Korea's politburo had vowed to continue firing "powerful long-range rockets" but made no mention of its previous promise to conduct a nuclear test. Tensions have been running high in the region since North Korea threatened to conduct a nuclear test in protest at fresh UN sanctions imposed after the regime successfully launched a satellite into orbit in mid-December.
The United States and its allies have been on edge since North Korea said in January it would conduct its third nuclear test in protest at sanctions that were toughened when it launched a rocket carrying a satellite in December 2012. The UN called that launch a cover for a banned missile test. The North again raised the diplomatic stakes when its most powerful military body warned that its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes were targeted at the US.
North Korea's powerful National Defence Commission said on 23 January that the United States was its main reason for testing nuclear bombs and long-range rockets. North Korea accuses Washington of leading the push to punish Pyongyang for its December rocket launch. Any progress the North makes in its missile and nuclear programmes is a cause for concern, although it is thought to be some way off having the ability to produce a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a reliable long-range missile.
In October 2012 a spokesman from the commission told state media that the country had built a missile capable of striking the United States but he did not provide further details. A missile featured in an April 2012 military parade appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile but its authenticity has not been verified by foreign experts. North Korea has enough plutonium to build between four and eight nuclear weapons, according to Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear scientist who visited the country's main Yongbyon nuclear complex in 2010.
Diplomats said the UN security council would hold an emergency meeting at 9am in New York on Tuesday. Other reports suggest the country has enough fissile material for about a dozen plutonium warheads. In 2009 the regime said it would begin enriching uranium, giving it another means of building a nuclear arsenal.
Envoys had said previously that the US, South Korea and European members would want the security council to impose new sanctions on Pyongyang in the event of a third nuclear test. But getting a resolution approved could take weeks. Speculation had been mounting that this third could involve a uranium device – a clear signal that North Korea's scientists have mastered the ability to produce highly enriched uranium.
In October 2012 a spokesman from the North's national defence commission told state media that the country had built a missile capable of striking the United States but did not provide further details. A missile featured in an April 2012 military parade appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile but its authenticity has not been verified by foreign experts.
Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group in Seoul said: "The question is whether things could spiral. I agree there should be some costs and consequences, but as far as believing the consequences should deter them – I think that's wishful thinking.
"The [North Koreans] view the world as hostile and menacing; and if even China is hostile, then even more so. Other people might think OK, they will be more cautious and have second thoughts because even China will take action. But from their point of view it reaffirms why they need [a nuclear programme]. When the world is like this, do you not want to be a nuclear power?"
Analysts said the test, like the previous two, was designed to strengthen the North's bargaining position as the US, South Korea, Russia, China and Japan attempt to restart talks on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme.
Dr Leonid Petrov, a North Korea expert at the Australian National University, said it would bolster the North's case for describing itself as a genuine nuclear state.
"Obviously the [North Koreans] are not going to bargain and are not going to give up the nuclear options," Petrov said. "We have passed already the point of no return: North Korea is de facto a nuclear state, all we can do is minimise the damage."
Petrov suggested the North might be willing to freeze its civilian nuclear programme if given sufficient incentives, such as the loosening of international sanctions. It would also need assurances, particularly from the US, that it would not be the target of attempts at regime change or military strikes.
The only alternative, he said, was a pre-emptive strike that could miss many of the country's underground nuclear sites and raise the dangerous prospect of a counter-attack.
Petrov said the North's determination to push ahead with its nuclear programme was a failure of diplomacy that began with the administration of George Bush, who described the country as part of an "axis of evil" when Washington adopted a tougher stance in 2002.
"The world is now a much more dangerous place," Petrov said. "It's very sad.
Kim Min-seok, a South Korean defence ministry spokesman, said the North had informed China and the US in advance of its intention to conduct the test but could not say when the message was relayed.
Petrov said that if true the decision to inform other nations in advance was a "marked" change in the regime's approach under its leader, Kim Jong-un, who has been in power just over a year. Kim has shown no sign of ditching the nuclear ambitions of his father, Kim Jong-il, but has been more open than the country's former leader about his regime's intentions, having also given notice of a recent satellite launch using a ballistic rocket.