North Korea Draws New China Scrutiny

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/world/asia/north-korea-draws-new-china-scrutiny.html

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BEIJING — The Chinese government’s approach to North Korea appears to be the subject of heightened debate ignited by the North’s plans to proceed with a nuclear test, Chinese and American experts say.

A blunt article in Global Times, an influential newspaper that sometimes reflects Chinese government thinking, said that North Korea must “pay a heavy price” if it proceeds with the test, which would be its third. Zhang Liangui, a specialist in North Korean affairs who advises the Communist Party Central Committee, wrote that North Korea was not afraid of China’s threats on aid and wanted to force a “showdown” on the nuclear issue.

North Korea is secretive about the date for the test that it has broadly advertised. Given its propensity for significant calendar days, experts say possibilities include Tuesday, the day of President Obama’s State of the Union address, or Saturday to celebrate the anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong-il, the father of the current leader, Kim Jong-un.

The test poses a major foreign policy challenge to Xi Jinping, the new head of the Communist Party, who has said he wants the United States and China to develop a “new type of relationship between two great powers.”

Mr. Xi, who appeared to be taking a direct interest in the strident feud between China and Japan over islands in the East China Sea, has not defined his “two great powers” concept, which he alluded to during his visit to the United States last year. That was a good-will tour before he ascended to party head in November. He will assume the presidency of the country next month.

Analysts say that they are watching how Mr. Xi handles North Korea’s relatively new young leader to see whether he changes the approach of his predecessor Hu Jintao, who kept North Korea afloat with fuel, food and private investment while also tolerating its development of nuclear weapons.

Mr. Obama asked Mr. Hu to curb North Korea after its second nuclear test in 2009; when Mr. Hu failed to do so, Mr. Obama excoriated him for showing “willful blindness“ to North Korea’s military actions.

China’s overriding goal in dealing with North Korea, experts said, has been to keep it intact as a buffer zone against a greater American military presence on the Korean Peninsula. One of Beijing’s biggest fears has long been a collapse of North Korea that could result in its unification with South Korea, an American ally.

For all the concern in some quarters about North Korea’s wayward behavior, that dread of losing a buffer still prevails among China’s most influential policy makers, particularly in the military, according to Jia Qingguo, a professor at Beijing University’s School of International Studies who is a proponent of a new policy toward North Korea.

“It’s better than before, but it is still difficult to overcome” the mind-set, he said. “A lot of people are taking the very old-fashioned belief that North Korea is a strategic buffer, and they still believe American invaders would march over North Korea to come to China.”

Professor Jia, who visited Washington last month, suggested instead that China should explore working with the United States on a more cooperative relationship. “One option is North Korea,” he said. “We have to work together to stop it becoming a nuclear power.”

Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Beijing University who is also a proponent of a tougher stance against North Korea, said the Chinese news media accounts on North Korea were an encouraging sign.

“They are quite rare signals, and I don’t recall any moment during the past 10 years that Beijing unequivocally and forcefully spoke up against Pyongyang’s nuclear tricks,” he said.

Professor Zhu described Mr. Hu as “indecisive” on North Korea. While Mr. Xi is seen as a “more nationalistic” leader, he is also “more pragmatic,” and sees that Beijing has run out of “good will options,” Professor Zhu said. He, too, said he hoped that Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi could have a “serious one-on-one dialogue over North Korea and use it to build strategic trust.”

North Korea successfully launched a long-range missile in December that reached the Philippines and, American intelligence assessments say, proved capable of thrusting a warhead much farther. Afterward, China agreed to join the United States in backing new United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang.

In response, North Korea unleashed a scathing attack on China for signing on to the sanctions and said it would push ahead with the nuclear test.

Despite the strains, many analysts are convinced that China remains a firm ally of North Korea. China was only blowing off steam by allowing news media criticism of Pyongyang, said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, North East Asia director and China adviser for the International Crisis Group in Beijing.

“The traditionalists in the People’s Liberation Army and the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party control foreign policy,” she said. “The political relationship between China and North Korea right now is at a low point, but China’s longstanding priorities on the Korean Peninsula of no war, no instability and no nukes remain in that order of priority.”

China was prepared to live with a nuclear North Korea as long as the arsenal remained small and its nuclear status did not result in an arms race, she said.

American weapons experts say that the intent of the nuclear test is to further the development of a miniaturized warhead that can fit on a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States. A successful North Korean nuclear test would almost certainly lead the United States to step up development of regional ballistic missile defense systems for its allies in Japan and South Korea, said Jonathan D. Pollack, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“Obama has made clear that he would do whatever necessary to protect the security of its allies to counter North Korea’s threats and to defend American security interests,” Mr. Pollack said.

Mr. Hu never seemed to buy the United States argument that North Korea posed a threat to stability, he said. “With Hu out of the picture,” Mr. Pollack said, “the administration is intent on determining whether Xi Jinping will prove more attentive to U.S. security concerns.”

<NYT_AUTHOR_ID> <p>Bree Feng contributed research.