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A Successor to Benedict Is Likely to Share His Doctrine Pope Resigns, With Church at Crossroads
(about 2 hours later)
ROME — Pope Benedict XVI’s surprise decision to resign on Monday immediately set off a flurry of speculation about his replacement, who will be called upon to guide the Roman Catholic Church through an increasingly secular era in which the church has lost the certainty it claimed for centuries. VATICAN CITY — Pope Benedict XVI’s surprise announcement on Monday that he will resign on Feb. 28 sets the stage for a succession battle that is likely to determine the future course of a church troubled by scandal and declining faith in its traditional strongholds around the world.
Some Vatican observers predicted that the growing importance of the developing world to the church could weigh on the decision and, perhaps, lead to the choice of a non-European pope. But the voting bloc of cardinals coming from Europe remains sizable and influential, experts said. Citing advanced years and infirmity, Benedict became the first pope in six centuries to resign. Vatican officials said they hoped to have a new pope in place by Easter, while expressing shock at a decision that some said had been made as long as a year ago.
“It’s a premature question, though it’s clear that two non-Italian popes in a row have broken the notion that the pope has to be Italian,” said Alberto Melloni, a historian of the Roman Catholic Church and director of the John XXIII Center in Bologna, a liberal Catholic research institute. “But the church is not the Austro-Hungarian Empire where leaders alternate between countries. The pope is first of all bishop of Rome, and then the leader of the universal church.” Saying he had examined his conscience “before God,” Benedict said he felt that he was not up to the challenge of guiding the world’s one billion Catholics. That task will fall to his successor, who will have to contend not only with a Roman Catholic Church marred by the sexual abuse crisis, but also with an increasingly secular Europe and the spread of Protestant evangelical movements in the United States, Latin American and Africa.
Vatican experts argued that vision, rather than geography, would likely determine who would replace Benedict, and that the ability to communicate with a distracted world would be high on the list of desirable qualities. As nearly all of the cardinals eligible to vote were appointed by the current pope or his predecessor, John Paul II, it is likely that the next pope will share strong continuity in terms of vision and doctrine. The resignation sets up a struggle between the staunchest conservatives, in Benedict’s mold, who advocated a smaller church of more fervent believers, and those who feel the church can broaden its appeal in small but significant ways, like allowing divorced Catholics to receive communion or loosening restrictions on condom use to prevent AIDS. There are no plausible candidates who would move on issues like ending celibacy for priests, or the ordination of women.
That said, bookmakers quickly issued the odds on the top contenders, with Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, and Cardinal Peter Appiah Turkson of Ghana among the early favorites. Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, was among the few Italians who was considered in the running by outsiders. Many Vatican watchers suspect the cardinals will choose someone with better management skills and a more personal touch than the bookish Benedict, someone who can extend the church’s reach to new constituencies, particularly to the young people of Europe, for whom the church is now largely irrelevant, and to Latin America and Africa, where evangelical movements are fast encroaching.
But there were those who noted that Pope Benedict appointed 67 of the 118 cardinals who will appoint his successor, and that 37 of them were from Europe, which remains the most substantial voting block and potentially the most influential. “They want somebody who can carry this idea of new evangelization, relighting the missionary fires of the church and actually make it work, not just lay it out in theory,” said John L. Allen, a Vatican expert at the National Catholic Reporter and author of many books on the papacy. Someone who will be “the church’s missionary in chief, a showman and salesman for the Catholic faith, who can take the reins of government more personally into his own hands,” he added.
“There’s a very strong likelihood that it would be someone from Europe,” said the Rev. Thomas J. Reese, senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center. The other big battle in the church is over the geography of Catholicism, which has spread decisively to the developing world. Today, 42 percent of its adherents come from Latin America, and about 15 percent from Africa, versus only 25 percent from Europe. That has led many in the church to say that the new pope should represent a part of the world where membership is growing quickly, while others say that spiritual vision should be paramount.
With the College of Cardinals in many ways reflecting the views of the pope and his predecessor, some Vatican experts suggested that the future pope would have similar theological positions, like Cardinal Ouellet and Cardinal Scola, as well as Cardinal Cristoph Schoborn of Vienna. But while most of the world’s Catholics live outside Europe, most of the cardinals come from Europe, pointing to a central tension: while the Vatican is a global organization, it is often run like an Italian village.
John Allen, a Vatican expert and biographer of Benedict XVI, said Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, could be a contender in a “multi-power” world in which America is no longer the one super power. Under normal circumstances, the cardinals would descend on Rome after the death of the reigning pope. In this case, said the Vatican spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, the pope will carry out his duties until Feb. 28 at 8 p.m., with a successor probably elected by Easter, which this year falls on March 31. But he said the timing for an election of a new pope is “not an announcement, it’s a hypothesis.”
Acknowledgment of the growth of the importance of developing countries might also sway the choice. Already, speculation is rife about who best fills the perceived needs of the church. Cardinal Angelo Scola, the powerful archbishop of Milan, is seen as the strongest Italian contender. A conservative theologian with an interest in bioethics and Catholic-Muslim relations, he is known for his intellect, his background in the same theological tradition as Benedict, his media savvy and his strong ties with the Italian political establishment. Vatican experts laud his popular touch, even if his writings are often opaque.
In Brazil, the country with the world’s largest Catholic population but one in which many feel distant from the Vatican, news of the pope’s decision to step down came during the throes of the annual Carnival celebration. Cardinal Marc Ouellet, a dogmatic theologian and a Canadian, is widely seen as a favorite of Benedict, who named him head of the Vatican’s influential Congregation for Bishops to help select bishops around the world. Critics in his native Quebec said that he was out of step with the province’s more progressive bishops, but that is not necessarily a drawback in today’s church.
“I see so many people who say they are Catholic and do not go to church,” said Francisco Machado, 55, who was selling wigs and confetti to celebrants on a sidewalk in Rio de Janeiro. He described himself and his wife as practicing Catholics but said they were rare among their friends in actually regularly attending Mass. Cardinal Peter Appiah Turkson of Ghana, the head of the Vatican’s Pontifical Council for Social Justice, is seen as the most likely African contender for the papacy. Educated in Rome and New York, he is known for his semi-orthodox views on the use of condoms, saying that married couples could possibly use them to prevent infection where H.I.V. is present, although he has also defended Pope Benedict’s remark that condom use increases the risk of AIDS spreading.
Mr. Machado expressed skepticism over whether the next pope could come from Brazil. “We are not prepared to have a Brazilian pope, given the way the church is going,” he said. Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, the prefect for the Congregation for Eastern Churches, is an Argentine, who would excite the Latin American wing of the church. He is also a skillful Vatican insider who served in the Secretariat of State under John Paul II and knows how to navigate the Vatican’s complex bureaucracy, which might make him effective, Vatican experts say.
Andrew Chesnut, an expert on Latin American religions at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that the church faced big challenges in the region, even as Vatican leaders contemplate shifting demographics, with an estimated half of the world’s Catholics now living in Latin America. During the cold war it would have been a long shot, but for the first time there is talk that an American, Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan of New York, could be a contender for pope. His deep conservatism combined with a folksy charisma make him popular with the faithful, at a time when the church is focused on “new evangelization.”
“The smart move for the Vatican for the future of the world church, which lies in the global south, would be a Latin American or African pope,” Mr. Chesnut said. Still, he acknowledged that support for a European pope could pose an obstacle to such a choice if the Vatican focuses on the decline of the church in Europe. Benedict was seen as a weak manager, and his papacy was troubled by debilitating scandals, most recently one in which his butler was convicted by a Vatican court in October of aggravated theft after he admitted stealing confidential documents, many of which wound up in a tell-all book that showed behind-the-scenes Vatican intrigue.
Even if a Brazilian candidate or someone else from Latin America were chosen as pope, Silvia Fernandes, a sociologist at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro who specializes in Catholicism, said that big schisms within the church remained. She pointed to the rise of bishops in the Amazon who are focused on human rights, illegal deforestation and indigenous struggles, compared with the Catholic leadership in relatively prosperous southeastern Brazil, which she called more “institutional.” His successor will have to contend with a range of staggering practical challenges, including a perennial shortage of priests and nuns worldwide, as well as a sexual abuse crisis that has undermined the church’s moral authority, especially in Germany and the English-speaking countries where it has been most aggressively discovered.
With more than 150 million Catholics and a rapidly growing population, Africa represents one of the church’s best avenues for expansion. Church leaders have long been mindful of this, assiduously courting and promoting charismatic bishops and cardinals in nations with substantial Catholic populations, like Nigeria and Ghana. “I’d say the biggest challenge was the collapse of Catholic numbers across Europe,” where “Christianity is in such free-fall in former Catholic countries, that the prognosis is not good,” said Philip Jenkins, distinguished professor of history at the Institute for Studies of Religion at Baylor University, in Waco, Tex., citing Ireland as a particularly telling case.
In 2002, no less of an authority than Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, who would eventually be chosen as John Paul II’s successor, spoke of the merits of electing an African pope. In much of the developing world, especially Latin America — which accounts for half of the world’s Catholics — and parts of Africa, evangelical churches are moving in on territory once dominated by the Catholic Church, drawing in new faithful with services that offer upbeat music and an emphasis on self-improvement.
“For all its condemnation of racism, the Western world still has reservations about the third world,” Cardinal Ratzinger said. “Yet, in Africa for example, we have truly great figures whom we can only admire. They are fully up to the job.” “If I were investing the church’s efforts, I would put Latin American high, to avoid a second Europe,” Mr. Jenkins said.
Speculation on a possible African pope was rife in 2005, when John Paul II died and one of his close aides, Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Nigerian, was touted as a possible successor. Mr. Arinze is now 80, and while he remains active he is not much younger than the current pope. But the church’s concern about the developing world will not necessarily lead to the selection of a pope from that part of the world, Vatican experts said.
As a result, African hopes for the papacy have shifted to Cardinal Turkson of Ghana, a charismatic and popular senior church leader who is still in his mid-60s. Pope Benedict has appointed 67 of the 118 cardinals who will appoint his successor, and of these 37 are from Europe, which remains the most substantial voting block, and potentially the most influential. Nearly all of the 118 were appointed by Benedict and his predecessor, John Paul II, both strong traditionalists, and it is likely that the next pope will share their vision and doctrine.
When Cardinal Turkson was asked in 2009 at a Vatican news conference about the possibility of a black pope, he replied: “An African pope? Why not?” according to the Catholic News Service. With more than 150 million Catholics and a rapidly growing population, Africa represents one of the church’s few avenues for expansion, and church leaders have assiduously promoted charismatic bishops and cardinals in nations with substantial Catholic populations, such as Nigeria and Ghana.
After mentioning his fellow countryman Kofi Annan’s tenure as United Nations secretary general, and Barack Obama’s presidency, he added, “If by divine providence — because the church belongs to God — God would wish to see a black man as pope, then thanks be to God.” In 2002, Benedict, then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, spoke of the merits of electing an African pope. “For all its condemnation of racism, the Western world still has reservations about the third world,” he said then. “Yet, in Africa for example, we have truly great figures whom we can only admire. They are fully up to the job.”
One looming question is the influence — subtle or otherwise — that the current pope will have on the outcome of the election. But most Vatican experts said that was not likely. “There’s a very strong likelihood that it will be someone from Europe,” said the Rev. Thomas J. Reese, senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center, at Georgetown University.
The Vatican spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, said Monday that after his resignation on Feb. 28, the pope would retire from public view and would not participate in the appointment of his successor. But many wondered whether his presence would have an impact. The Vatican spokesman, Father Lombardi, said Monday that after Feb. 28, the pope would retire from public view and would not participate in the appointment of his successor. But many wondered whether his presence would have an impact. “The fact is that he’s alive, and it’s obvious that his opinion, his perception will be felt,” said Paolo Rodari, a Vatican reporter for the daily Il Foglio.
“The fact is that he’s alive, and it’s obvious that his opinion, his perception will be felt,” said Paolo Rodari, a Vatican reporter for the daily Il Foglio newspaper. “Even if the pope will be discreet, those electing his successor are going to think about what Ratzinger would think of their choices.”

Nicholas Kulish contributed reporting from Berlin, and Alan Cowell from London.

Reporting was contributed by Lydia Polgreen from Johannesburg, Simon Romero and Taylor Barnes from Rio de Janeiro, and Elisabeth Malkin and Karla Zabludovsky from Mexico City.