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Labour's poll lead may not last if economy improves Labour's poll lead may not last if economy improves
(7 months later)
There is an old adage that any poll that makes a good headline is probably wrong, and it is possible that the ICM poll giving Labour its largest lead since 2003 is an outlier. But ICM is probably the most respected polling organisation in the country and does not have a notable history of producing wild results from out of the blue.There is an old adage that any poll that makes a good headline is probably wrong, and it is possible that the ICM poll giving Labour its largest lead since 2003 is an outlier. But ICM is probably the most respected polling organisation in the country and does not have a notable history of producing wild results from out of the blue.
Nevertheless, this poll shows a sharp reversal in government fortunes. In the previous poll, in January, Labour's lead narrowed from eight points to five. Now that lead has widened to the largest since the fall of Saddam Hussein, when voters praised Tony Blair for his decisive action in ridding the Middle East of a brutal dictator.Nevertheless, this poll shows a sharp reversal in government fortunes. In the previous poll, in January, Labour's lead narrowed from eight points to five. Now that lead has widened to the largest since the fall of Saddam Hussein, when voters praised Tony Blair for his decisive action in ridding the Middle East of a brutal dictator.
It is hard to pinpoint a set of events in the past month that justifies a surge in Labour support. Ed Miliband has had a relatively low profile in the new year, while David Cameron has played his populist card on an EU referendum. Those in Downing Street who thought the prime minister's move would not only quieten the backbenches but lead to a poll boost have been frustrated. Dissent on the Tory benches over Cameron's leadership and the issue of gay marriage has continued unabated.It is hard to pinpoint a set of events in the past month that justifies a surge in Labour support. Ed Miliband has had a relatively low profile in the new year, while David Cameron has played his populist card on an EU referendum. Those in Downing Street who thought the prime minister's move would not only quieten the backbenches but lead to a poll boost have been frustrated. Dissent on the Tory benches over Cameron's leadership and the issue of gay marriage has continued unabated.
Almost all polls show that jobs and the economy are what move voters most. There is some evidence that the Conservative lead on the economy is receding, and long has been among female voters. February's ICM poll shows 29% of voters still blame Labour for the economic crisis and 23% the Conservatives.Almost all polls show that jobs and the economy are what move voters most. There is some evidence that the Conservative lead on the economy is receding, and long has been among female voters. February's ICM poll shows 29% of voters still blame Labour for the economic crisis and 23% the Conservatives.
It is possible that the economy's return to negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 was a turning point. The chancellor, George Osborne, will have to work ever harder to convince the electorate that the economy is healing, and if it is not, that the responsibility lies with Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.It is possible that the economy's return to negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 was a turning point. The chancellor, George Osborne, will have to work ever harder to convince the electorate that the economy is healing, and if it is not, that the responsibility lies with Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.
If the coalition continues to bang goals into its own net, Labour can reach full-time in 2015 without its defensive lines being tested. At the moment it survives week after week without any serious media scrutiny. But even strong Labour supporters acknowledge that the party's lead is at best soft.If the coalition continues to bang goals into its own net, Labour can reach full-time in 2015 without its defensive lines being tested. At the moment it survives week after week without any serious media scrutiny. But even strong Labour supporters acknowledge that the party's lead is at best soft.
Anthony Painter, writing on Labour List and drawing on polling prepared by Lord Ashcroft, points out that on three of the four most salient issues – welfare dependency, immigration and cutting the deficit – Labour not only trails the Conservatives but significantly so. He concludes: "If Labour fails to narrow its deficit on welfare, immigration and debt, and the economy turns for the better before 2015, then its poll lead is likely to narrow very rapidly."Anthony Painter, writing on Labour List and drawing on polling prepared by Lord Ashcroft, points out that on three of the four most salient issues – welfare dependency, immigration and cutting the deficit – Labour not only trails the Conservatives but significantly so. He concludes: "If Labour fails to narrow its deficit on welfare, immigration and debt, and the economy turns for the better before 2015, then its poll lead is likely to narrow very rapidly."
The IFS said this week that the UK economy could grow quite rapidly in late 2014 or early 2015, and certainly faster than the rest of the EU. At that point Osborne will ram home the argument that voters should not give the keys back to the driver who steered the car into the ditch. From here it sounds a compelling argument.The IFS said this week that the UK economy could grow quite rapidly in late 2014 or early 2015, and certainly faster than the rest of the EU. At that point Osborne will ram home the argument that voters should not give the keys back to the driver who steered the car into the ditch. From here it sounds a compelling argument.
By then Labour will have to convince voters that it has the values to lift the economy in continued tough times. The issue is whether Labour has the intellectual resolve and internal unity to come up with policies in the next year or so to turn that aspiration into reality.By then Labour will have to convince voters that it has the values to lift the economy in continued tough times. The issue is whether Labour has the intellectual resolve and internal unity to come up with policies in the next year or so to turn that aspiration into reality.
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