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| Jacob Zuma still riding high | Jacob Zuma still riding high |
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| Like much else in South Africa, Thursday's annual opening of parliament will be a peculiar hybrid of Europe and Africa. Ceremonials include a red carpet, military band, air force fly-past, 21-gun salute – and an imbongi, or praise poet, speaking Xhosa or Zulu. | Like much else in South Africa, Thursday's annual opening of parliament will be a peculiar hybrid of Europe and Africa. Ceremonials include a red carpet, military band, air force fly-past, 21-gun salute – and an imbongi, or praise poet, speaking Xhosa or Zulu. |
| The centrepiece is the president's state of the nation address to both houses of parliament. A few years ago it was switched to evening prime time in the hope of catching more TV viewers or radio listeners as well as being shown on big screens in public. But the event still lacks the import of America's state of the union counterpart and MPs are not so quick to their feet to applaud. | The centrepiece is the president's state of the nation address to both houses of parliament. A few years ago it was switched to evening prime time in the hope of catching more TV viewers or radio listeners as well as being shown on big screens in public. But the event still lacks the import of America's state of the union counterpart and MPs are not so quick to their feet to applaud. |
| This year the stocktaking and promise-making will be delivered by a man who must feel pretty pleased with himself. Just as Barack Obama shrugged off high unemployment and other troubles to crush his rival, so President Jacob Zuma somehow emerged from a dismal year with a stronger hand than ever. | This year the stocktaking and promise-making will be delivered by a man who must feel pretty pleased with himself. Just as Barack Obama shrugged off high unemployment and other troubles to crush his rival, so President Jacob Zuma somehow emerged from a dismal year with a stronger hand than ever. |
| Zuma won a leadership contest within the governing African National Congress (ANC) in December with a 75% | Zuma won a leadership contest within the governing African National Congress (ANC) in December with a 75% |
| majority, up from 60% five years earlier. This was despite an outcry over 206m rand (£15m) of public money being spent on security upgrades for his rural home and the horror of Marikana, where police shot dead 34 striking mineworkers in South Africa's darkest hour since apartheid. | majority, up from 60% five years earlier. This was despite an outcry over 206m rand (£15m) of public money being spent on security upgrades for his rural home and the horror of Marikana, where police shot dead 34 striking mineworkers in South Africa's darkest hour since apartheid. |
| Zuma, then, may believe himself invincible and decide he can throw his weight around. In truth, many people probably wouldn't notice. It's become an annual ritual that Zuma begins speaking and, within a few minutes, the audience's mind begins to wander. His delivery is halting – in fairness, English is not his first language – and his oratory is less captivating or charismatic than, say, his new ANC deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa. | Zuma, then, may believe himself invincible and decide he can throw his weight around. In truth, many people probably wouldn't notice. It's become an annual ritual that Zuma begins speaking and, within a few minutes, the audience's mind begins to wander. His delivery is halting – in fairness, English is not his first language – and his oratory is less captivating or charismatic than, say, his new ANC deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa. |
| But South Africa's admirably feisty and diligent press will be listening and measuring the manifesto against reality. Last week the Mail & Guardian newspaper examined promises made by Zuma in his highly rated 2012 address: it concluded that he had kept two and broken two, while there were question marks over three others. | But South Africa's admirably feisty and diligent press will be listening and measuring the manifesto against reality. Last week the Mail & Guardian newspaper examined promises made by Zuma in his highly rated 2012 address: it concluded that he had kept two and broken two, while there were question marks over three others. |
| This time next year the stakes will be higher. Zuma will be expected to rise to the occasion for multiracial democracy's 20th anniversary. He will also set the tone for a general election in which the ANC, while certain of retaining power, may continue to suffer an incremental, inexorable ebbing of support. | This time next year the stakes will be higher. Zuma will be expected to rise to the occasion for multiracial democracy's 20th anniversary. He will also set the tone for a general election in which the ANC, while certain of retaining power, may continue to suffer an incremental, inexorable ebbing of support. |
| For now, however, Zuma and his party are riding high, their enemies in retreat – at least until the next scandal. | For now, however, Zuma and his party are riding high, their enemies in retreat – at least until the next scandal. |
| Justice Malala, a leading political commentator, admitted last week: "The truth is that one of the key themes most of us – ANC leaders, commentators, opposition hopefuls and others – have ignored is the ANC's ability to rejuvenate and reinvent itself to meet the challenges of the day. It is not by chance that the party has survived numerous vicissitudes to be 101 today, it is because it knows how to reinvent itself and take its people along." | Justice Malala, a leading political commentator, admitted last week: "The truth is that one of the key themes most of us – ANC leaders, commentators, opposition hopefuls and others – have ignored is the ANC's ability to rejuvenate and reinvent itself to meet the challenges of the day. It is not by chance that the party has survived numerous vicissitudes to be 101 today, it is because it knows how to reinvent itself and take its people along." |
| The week could see an attempt to steal Zuma's thunder with the launch of a political party by Mamphela Ramphele, struggle stalwart, doctor, academic, businesswoman, ex-girlfriend of Steve Biko and, in the words of one online newspaper, "all-round superwoman". | The week could see an attempt to steal Zuma's thunder with the launch of a political party by Mamphela Ramphele, struggle stalwart, doctor, academic, businesswoman, ex-girlfriend of Steve Biko and, in the words of one online newspaper, "all-round superwoman". |
| When her plans were recently leaked to the media, Ramphele refused to confirm them but conspicuously failed to deny them either. Some believe her party could be a "game changer", appealing to a small but growing black middle class disillusioned with the ANC or too young to vote for it on struggle credentials alone. Others suspect she will merely split the opposition. | When her plans were recently leaked to the media, Ramphele refused to confirm them but conspicuously failed to deny them either. Some believe her party could be a "game changer", appealing to a small but growing black middle class disillusioned with the ANC or too young to vote for it on struggle credentials alone. Others suspect she will merely split the opposition. |
| Seen as an untainted figure of hope thus far, Ramphele may soon discover that politics is a dirty game. Her status as chair of mining company Gold Fields received scant scrutiny last year when the industry was beset by violent strikes over pay and conditions. But last week the National Union of Mineworkers let rip at Ramphele "over her contradictions and dishonesty", deriding her as "the self-appointed adviser of capital". | Seen as an untainted figure of hope thus far, Ramphele may soon discover that politics is a dirty game. Her status as chair of mining company Gold Fields received scant scrutiny last year when the industry was beset by violent strikes over pay and conditions. But last week the National Union of Mineworkers let rip at Ramphele "over her contradictions and dishonesty", deriding her as "the self-appointed adviser of capital". |
| By a quirk of colonial history, Zuma will give his state of the nation address in Cape Town. This is because, when the Union of South Africa was formed in 1910, the provinces squabbled over the national capital's location. In the kind of compromise for which the nation would become famous, Cape Town was named the legislative capital, Bloemfontein the judicial capital and Pretoria the administrative capital. | By a quirk of colonial history, Zuma will give his state of the nation address in Cape Town. This is because, when the Union of South Africa was formed in 1910, the provinces squabbled over the national capital's location. In the kind of compromise for which the nation would become famous, Cape Town was named the legislative capital, Bloemfontein the judicial capital and Pretoria the administrative capital. |
| But the upshot is that Zuma, who is based at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, and most other MPs must take a two-hour flight to parliament. Although side-benefits include world class restaurants and jaw-dropping views of Table Mountain, every now and then someone proposes that moving parliament to Pretoria would save a lot of time and money. | But the upshot is that Zuma, who is based at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, and most other MPs must take a two-hour flight to parliament. Although side-benefits include world class restaurants and jaw-dropping views of Table Mountain, every now and then someone proposes that moving parliament to Pretoria would save a lot of time and money. |
| Anyone who has visited the two cities can understand why parliamentary staff are less than enthusiastic about relocating their families. | Anyone who has visited the two cities can understand why parliamentary staff are less than enthusiastic about relocating their families. |
| Another way of looking at it is that, with multiple capitals spread far apart, not to mention the economic powerhouse of Johannesburg, South Africa was years ahead of John Prescott on regional devolution. | Another way of looking at it is that, with multiple capitals spread far apart, not to mention the economic powerhouse of Johannesburg, South Africa was years ahead of John Prescott on regional devolution. |
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