David Cameron's EU speech did little to win new support for Tories, poll finds

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/feb/01/david-cameron-eu-speech-poll

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David Cameron's high-profile speech on Europe has cheered Conservative supporters, but done little to improve the party's chances of success at the next general election, according to polling conducted by the major Tory donor Lord Ashcroft.

The peer, who was Conservative deputy chairman until 2010, said Cameron's promise of an in-out referendum following renegotiation of the UK's EU membership after the 2015 election "has not unleashed a desire for an overall Conservative majority".

In fact the renewed debate about Britain and the EU in advance of the high-profile speech appears to have bolstered pro-European sentiments, with those saying they feel positive about British membership increasing from 18% to 22% and those thinking the UK would be better off out falling from 34% to 26%.

Ashcroft's poll – in common with most of those taken since last week's speech – showed a small increase in support for the Tories to 33%, but Labour remain in the lead on 38% with the Liberal Democrats on 11%. The UK Independence party (Ukip), which is committed to the UK's withdrawal from the EU, is on 9%.

Ashcroft said the change largely resulted from people who voted Tory in 2010 saying they would be more likely to do so again, and existing Conservative supporters becoming more likely to turn out and vote.

Writing on the ConservativeHome website, the Tory peer said: "If anyone expected an immediate leap in the Conservative party's popularity, the evidence should by now have disabused them of the notion.

"The speech, and more importantly the policy it articulated, has made Tories feel better about being Tories. This is not to be sneezed at – but let's not confuse it with having changed anybody's mind."

Cameron enjoyed a small increase in his leadership ratings in the poll, but the Conservatives were no more likely to be seen as united or having clear plans to deal with Britain's problems.

The coalition remained more trusted to run the economy than Labour, but Tory leads on traditionally strong policy areas such as welfare reform and immigration narrowed.

"Not surprisingly, given all this, the promise of an EU referendum has not unleashed a desire for an overall Conservative majority," Ashcroft said.

"Just under a third of voters told us last weekend that this would be their preferred outcome of the next election, a proportion unchanged since last November.

"A Labour government remains the most popular choice, with 38%; 17% would rather have a Labour-Lib Dem coalition. Another round of what we have now is the least popular choice, with 13%."

He warned the party that it must not give voters the impression that it is obsessed with Europe.

"In debating the question in the coming years we must remember that there is only so much oxygen in the room," Ashcroft said.

"Most people do not pay much attention to politics at all; when they do, let's make sure they hear something that changes their view of the Conservative party, not just of Europe."

The poll was conducted among 1,008 adults who were interviewed by telephone between 25 and 27 January.