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| Fall in UK crime rate baffles experts | Fall in UK crime rate baffles experts |
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| The surprise 8% fall in crime last year, revealed by government statisticians on Thursday, is sending the academic experts scurrying to rewrite their basic 'Criminology 101' lecture and the theory that recession leads to rising crime, particularly property crime. | The surprise 8% fall in crime last year, revealed by government statisticians on Thursday, is sending the academic experts scurrying to rewrite their basic 'Criminology 101' lecture and the theory that recession leads to rising crime, particularly property crime. |
| The official statisticians say the latest crime figures for England and Wales, which include a 10% drop in the murder rate to 549 homicides, the lowest level since 1978, herald a resumption in the long-term decline that has been going on for nearly 20 years. | The official statisticians say the latest crime figures for England and Wales, which include a 10% drop in the murder rate to 549 homicides, the lowest level since 1978, herald a resumption in the long-term decline that has been going on for nearly 20 years. |
| But why are crime rates falling now? Are police anti-crime and antisocial behaviour crackdowns working? Is it just better security on homes and cars making it harder to break in? Have smartphones killed teenage boredom? Are young people drinking less and taking fewer drugs, or is it all down to less lead in the atmosphere? | But why are crime rates falling now? Are police anti-crime and antisocial behaviour crackdowns working? Is it just better security on homes and cars making it harder to break in? Have smartphones killed teenage boredom? Are young people drinking less and taking fewer drugs, or is it all down to less lead in the atmosphere? |
| Nearly all the criminologists and experts say the classic explanation that property crime, as opposed to violent crime, tends to rise faster in times of economic strife, no longer seems to apply. However, there appears to be far less agreement on the reasons for the fall. | Nearly all the criminologists and experts say the classic explanation that property crime, as opposed to violent crime, tends to rise faster in times of economic strife, no longer seems to apply. However, there appears to be far less agreement on the reasons for the fall. |
| Professor Mike Hough, who was in the team that started the Home Office's then British crime survey in the early 1980s, says the fact that both the key yardsticks – the official crime survey and the police statistics – point in the same direction suggests there has been a "real and welcome fall" in crime. | Professor Mike Hough, who was in the team that started the Home Office's then British crime survey in the early 1980s, says the fact that both the key yardsticks – the official crime survey and the police statistics – point in the same direction suggests there has been a "real and welcome fall" in crime. |
| "This fall is striking and unexpected, especially in view of the fiscal crisis, whose impact is bearing down sharpest on the poorest and most marginal social groups." | "This fall is striking and unexpected, especially in view of the fiscal crisis, whose impact is bearing down sharpest on the poorest and most marginal social groups." |
| He admits he had been expecting a rise in crime as a result of the recession, but now says there are several factors interacting to drive crime downwards. "There is no single explanation. Better policing may be part of the explanation, but for property crimes like burglary and car theft changes in opportunities are more important," said Hough, of Birkbeck's institute for criminal policy research. | He admits he had been expecting a rise in crime as a result of the recession, but now says there are several factors interacting to drive crime downwards. "There is no single explanation. Better policing may be part of the explanation, but for property crimes like burglary and car theft changes in opportunities are more important," said Hough, of Birkbeck's institute for criminal policy research. |
| "Cars are getting more and more secure, and the value of goods that burglars used to target is falling fast. These factors may spill over to other property crime, because there are fewer opportunities for 'low-level crimes' or 'debut crimes' on which young offenders can cut their teeth. But expressive crimes like violence and vandalism are also falling. Possibly the fall in alcohol consumption among the 16-25 age group may be a factor here." | "Cars are getting more and more secure, and the value of goods that burglars used to target is falling fast. These factors may spill over to other property crime, because there are fewer opportunities for 'low-level crimes' or 'debut crimes' on which young offenders can cut their teeth. But expressive crimes like violence and vandalism are also falling. Possibly the fall in alcohol consumption among the 16-25 age group may be a factor here." |
| Youth workers seem to confirm this, pointing out that the decline in vandalism started just as smartphone sales took off in 2007: "There are so many things for kids to do now. Why waste their time vandalising when they could be on their BB (BlackBerry) talking to girls or on YouTube putting up their music videos?" Kito, a 30-year-old Camden youth worker was quoted as saying recently. | Youth workers seem to confirm this, pointing out that the decline in vandalism started just as smartphone sales took off in 2007: "There are so many things for kids to do now. Why waste their time vandalising when they could be on their BB (BlackBerry) talking to girls or on YouTube putting up their music videos?" Kito, a 30-year-old Camden youth worker was quoted as saying recently. |
| The political thinktankers seem to agree. Max Chambers, crime and justice head at Policy Exchange, says there are more 15-year-olds, which is the peak age of offending, in the UK than ever before and so the demographics do not seem to be driving the scale of the fall. | The political thinktankers seem to agree. Max Chambers, crime and justice head at Policy Exchange, says there are more 15-year-olds, which is the peak age of offending, in the UK than ever before and so the demographics do not seem to be driving the scale of the fall. |
| He also cites smarter policing and security, lower alcohol consumption, less drug addiction and a higher prison population for the size of the drop: "In other words, sensible policies balancing enforcement and prevention can have, and are having, an impact. However, the overall downward trend is repeated in many other countries which suggests something else is happening too." | He also cites smarter policing and security, lower alcohol consumption, less drug addiction and a higher prison population for the size of the drop: "In other words, sensible policies balancing enforcement and prevention can have, and are having, an impact. However, the overall downward trend is repeated in many other countries which suggests something else is happening too." |
| Will Tanner of the Reform thinktank, also acknowledges the major target role of the spread of car immobilisers, and burglar alarms and points out that car crime has fallen from 4.3m thefts in 1993 to fewer than 1.1m in 2012. He adds that the latest figures should also be seen as a blow to those who argue that fewer police officers or deep budget cuts always mean more crime. | Will Tanner of the Reform thinktank, also acknowledges the major target role of the spread of car immobilisers, and burglar alarms and points out that car crime has fallen from 4.3m thefts in 1993 to fewer than 1.1m in 2012. He adds that the latest figures should also be seen as a blow to those who argue that fewer police officers or deep budget cuts always mean more crime. |
| One major dissenter, however, is Professor Marian FitzGerald of the University of Kent's crime and justice centre, who says there is still a strong relationship between crime and the economy. She says the problem is that crime is changing so fast the two main conventional yardsticks, the crime survey and police figures, are not capable of capturing it because the new types of property crime, such as online frauds, are seldom reported. | One major dissenter, however, is Professor Marian FitzGerald of the University of Kent's crime and justice centre, who says there is still a strong relationship between crime and the economy. She says the problem is that crime is changing so fast the two main conventional yardsticks, the crime survey and police figures, are not capable of capturing it because the new types of property crime, such as online frauds, are seldom reported. |
| FitzGerald points out that as high-street retailers collapse so a lot of property crime has moved into new digital forms, with sites such as eBay replacing car boot sales, pubs and street markets as far more accessible outlets for selling stolen goods. | FitzGerald points out that as high-street retailers collapse so a lot of property crime has moved into new digital forms, with sites such as eBay replacing car boot sales, pubs and street markets as far more accessible outlets for selling stolen goods. |
| "At present, we would expect to see violence going down. But we would also expect property crime to go up – always bearing in mind that property crime isn't mainly a matter of people offending because they are starving and/or can't afford to clothe their own children," said FitzGerald. | "At present, we would expect to see violence going down. But we would also expect property crime to go up – always bearing in mind that property crime isn't mainly a matter of people offending because they are starving and/or can't afford to clothe their own children," said FitzGerald. |
| "The overall level of property crime largely reflects the size of the market for stolen or illicit goods and, obviously, this will expand significantly at times of recession. So property crime may indeed be going up as the models would predict, but we have long since lost track of trends in property crime using our two main, conventional measures of crime." | "The overall level of property crime largely reflects the size of the market for stolen or illicit goods and, obviously, this will expand significantly at times of recession. So property crime may indeed be going up as the models would predict, but we have long since lost track of trends in property crime using our two main, conventional measures of crime." |
| Hough agrees that online crime is probably on the rise, and the Whitehall statisticians acknowledge their figures are not as comprehensive as they might be. | Hough agrees that online crime is probably on the rise, and the Whitehall statisticians acknowledge their figures are not as comprehensive as they might be. |
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