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| Fall in crime in England and Wales 'may be exaggerated' | Fall in crime in England and Wales 'may be exaggerated' |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| A study of crime trends in England and Wales suggests the fall in offences recorded by police may have been exaggerated. | A study of crime trends in England and Wales suggests the fall in offences recorded by police may have been exaggerated. |
| The Office for National Statistics said the "rate of reduction" in recorded crime "may overstate" the decrease. | The Office for National Statistics said the "rate of reduction" in recorded crime "may overstate" the decrease. |
| Shadow policing minister David Hanson called for Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary to look at the apparent discrepancies. | Shadow policing minister David Hanson called for Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary to look at the apparent discrepancies. |
| The Home Office said there was "no simple answer" to the apparent anomaly. | |
| The ONS compared certain categories of crimes and found police-recorded offences had fallen by 33% over the previous five years, while survey data suggested a decline of 17%. | |
| The ONS also published crime figures for the 12 months to the end of September 2012, which showed continued falls in virtually every category. | The ONS also published crime figures for the 12 months to the end of September 2012, which showed continued falls in virtually every category. |
| BBC home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw said police recorded 7% fewer crimes than the year before, while the Crime Survey of England and Wales indicated there had been a "statistically significant" fall of 8%. | |
| A decade ago new methods of counting crimes were introduced across England and Wales to iron out inconsistencies between police forces and ensure that when a victim reported a crime, it was properly logged. | |
| The rule changes came about after huge variations were discovered in crime-recording rates. For the first five years, under the new system, there was little difference between the reduction in crimes under the police figures and the decline measured by the Crime Survey of England and Wales, suggesting the new rules were being followed closely. | |
| But since 2007, there has been a marked discrepancy: have the police simply become lax in their approach - or are they deliberately cooking the books? | |
| The ONS does not provide the answers - but HM Inspectorate of Constabulary might. Last year it examined the way offences were recorded - its report will make interesting reading. | |
| 'Informal pressure' | 'Informal pressure' |
| ONS statistician John Flatley said the bigger falls in police-recorded crimes may be due to pressures to meet targets on crime reduction and detections. | ONS statistician John Flatley said the bigger falls in police-recorded crimes may be due to pressures to meet targets on crime reduction and detections. |
| "It's more the culture and informal pressure of having targets and expectations," he said. | "It's more the culture and informal pressure of having targets and expectations," he said. |
| Other possible reasons for under-recording suggested by the ONS include more low-level crimes being dealt with informally and outside the formal crime-recording system, with officers given greater discretion. | |
| Mr Flatley said it was also "possible" that reductions in police budgets and officers meant fewer offences were being recorded. | Mr Flatley said it was also "possible" that reductions in police budgets and officers meant fewer offences were being recorded. |
| He said as resources were more stretched the "balance shifts" to less compliance with crime-recording systems. | He said as resources were more stretched the "balance shifts" to less compliance with crime-recording systems. |
| Crime Prevention Minister Jeremy Browne said: "Crime continues to fall under this government... and is now at the lowest level since the survey began. | |
| "Police reform is working. We have swept away central targets, reduced bureaucracy and these figures show forces are rising to the challenge of doing more with less. Many have achieved significant reductions in crime with reduced budgets. | "Police reform is working. We have swept away central targets, reduced bureaucracy and these figures show forces are rising to the challenge of doing more with less. Many have achieved significant reductions in crime with reduced budgets. |
| "We are improving the relationship between the police and the public through the introduction of police and crime commissioners, which are giving the public a direct say in local policing for the first time, and we have established the College of Policing to enhance police professionalism and set the highest standards of integrity." | |
| 'Urgent examination' | 'Urgent examination' |
| Mr Hanson said: "There are warning signs for the police and Home Office, with the increase in theft. And earlier this week the British Retail Consortium's survey showed an increase of over 15% in the cost of retail crime alongside a drop in the proportion of crime reported by retailers to the police from 48% to 16%. | |
| "This is perhaps why the Office for National Statistics has begun to express concern that apparent reductions in police recorded crime may be exaggerated. | "This is perhaps why the Office for National Statistics has begun to express concern that apparent reductions in police recorded crime may be exaggerated. |
| "The home secretary should examine urgently whether, as the ONS suggest, the cuts to police budgets mark a return to fewer crimes being recorded by the police." | "The home secretary should examine urgently whether, as the ONS suggest, the cuts to police budgets mark a return to fewer crimes being recorded by the police." |
| But a Home Office spokesman said: "As the ONS highlights in their report, there is no simple answer as to why there has been some variation in crime trends between the Crime Survey and police-recorded crime. The two measurements were always intended to assess different things and have different strengths. | |
| "But we know that building public trust in the figures is key. That is why we transferred the statistics to the ONS and we are continuing to work with forces to ensure accurate data. Today's report builds on work we have already commissioned from HMIC on improving crime recording practices." | |
| The Association of Chief Police Officers' lead on statistics, Douglas Paxton, who is Deputy Chief Constable of Staffordshire Police, said: "Public confidence in the police has also remained steady with 62% of people stating they believe that the police in their local area are doing a good or excellent job. | The Association of Chief Police Officers' lead on statistics, Douglas Paxton, who is Deputy Chief Constable of Staffordshire Police, said: "Public confidence in the police has also remained steady with 62% of people stating they believe that the police in their local area are doing a good or excellent job. |
| "The service remains determined to build on the good work reflected in these publications and the results are a credit to those officers and staff who have faced the challenge of major efficiencies while continuing to tackle crime in our communities." | "The service remains determined to build on the good work reflected in these publications and the results are a credit to those officers and staff who have faced the challenge of major efficiencies while continuing to tackle crime in our communities." |