Are Scots getting cold feet about independence?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/24/scots-cold-feet-independence

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The debate about Scottish independence took off for real in 2012. Once the UK government announced exactly a year ago that it was willing to give the Scottish parliament the authority to hold a legally watertight referendum, the battle lines were drawn. Within weeks campaigns for and against independence – Yes Scotland and Better Together – were launched, preparing for a ballot to be held in a little under two years from now.

So, who has had the better of the opening skirmishes? Now that a clear pathway towards its achievement has been laid out, have Scots begun to warm to the prospect of independence? Or has the fact that Scotland's position in the UK is now in doubt caused them to reassess whether they want to separate from the rest of the UK after all?

The 2012 Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey conducted by ScotCen Social Research – whose initial results are released today – provides the first in-depth evidence on those questions. Much of it does not make happy reading for the Yes campaign.

First off, the headline: just 23% now say that "Scotland should become separate, independent from the rest of the UK". That's nine percentage points lower than last time round in 2011.

True, support for independence was high in our 2011 survey, perhaps a reflection of a euphoria generated by the SNP's historic success in securing an overall majority in the Scottish parliament. Even so, that 23% figure is the lowest figure recorded by SSA.

Going beyond that headline finding, there's further disappointment for the Yes campaign. In 2011 no less than 67% reckoned independence would result in more people having pride in their country, while 51% felt it would mean that Scotland had a stronger voice in the world. Those figures have now eased back to 55% and 42% respectively.

Still, at least there is substantial optimism about these aspects of independence. The same cannot be said of other areas. Only 34% believe that Scotland's economy would be better under independence – and the economy appears to be a particularly important consideration in shaping people's support or opposition to independence.

Meanwhile, only 19% reckon the gap between rich and poor would become smaller if Scotland were independent – contrary to the claims made by many a nationalist politician in the wake of the recent controversy about the UK coalition's cuts in welfare benefits.

Above all, however, the biggest challenge for the Yes campaign is a general sense of unease about the prospect of independence, one that was already quite widespread but which has now apparently become even more so. In the latest SSA survey, 59% say they would be "worried" if Scotland were to become independent – a figure 13 points higher than a year ago.

Still, whatever setbacks the Yes side may have suffered during the past 12 months, it does not mean that the Better Together camp can afford to be complacent. For their side of the fence looks badly divided between those who are reasonably happy with the current devolution settlement and those who would like it to go much further.

The two main domestic policy areas for which Westminster is still primarily responsible north of the border are taxation and welfare benefits. Yet even among those who say they prefer devolution to independence, a majority feel that most of the important decisions about these areas should be made by MSPs, not the UK government. So far as taxation is concerned, 52% take that view, while no less than 65% do so in respect of welfare benefits.

Thanks to the opposition of the UK government, no proposition for further devolution will appear on the referendum ballot paper. However, all three unionist parties are at various stages of formulating proposals for enhancing the Scottish parliament's powers and responsibilities. At the moment, many of those who would like more devolution still take a relatively favourable view of the deal Scotland gets out of the union. The Better Together campaign needs to ensure they do not now find reason to begin to doubt the union's ability to deliver.