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China growth shows signs of pick-up from 13-year low | |
(about 3 hours later) | |
China's economy, the world's second largest, is showing signs of a rebound that could pull it out of its worst economic slump in 13 years. | |
According to the latest government figures, growth picked up to 7.9% in the final three months of 2012, from 7.4% in the previous quarter. | |
This was driven by state investment in infrastructure projects and efforts to get consumers and companies to spend. | |
Economic stability is seen as vital for China as its new leaders take over. | |
"It is obvious that the slowdown in the Chinese economy has halted for the moment," said Fraser Howie, an economist and co-author of Red Capitalism. | |
"But one has to be mindful that any recovery will be limited in its scope, not least because of the various headwinds that China is facing," he added. | |
"The new leaders, who take charge in March, will now have to find the right balance between trying to prevent the formation of a property bubble and keeping a healthy growth rate going." | |
That may prove tricky, not least because China's economic growth has slowed significantly from the highs of previous years, and analysts warn that state stimulus measures may wane. | |
On Friday, the statistical office reported that gross domestic product, the main measure of growth, increased by 7.8% in 2012, down from 9.3% in 2011. | |
That was the slowest annual rate of growth since 1999. | |
'Transition economy' | 'Transition economy' |
Rajiv Biswas, from IHS Global insight, told the BBC that the days of China's blisteringly fast growth look to be over as the country moves from a low-income country to a middle-income one. | |
"For 30 years, China grew at about 10% on average, but the Chinese economy is now in transition," he explained. | "For 30 years, China grew at about 10% on average, but the Chinese economy is now in transition," he explained. |
"They have an ageing population and declining marginal productivity of capital. These are longer-term trends that mean they cannot grow at 10% forever." | "They have an ageing population and declining marginal productivity of capital. These are longer-term trends that mean they cannot grow at 10% forever." |
Mr Biswas expects growth to average between 7% and 8% over the next few years, which is in line with government expectations. | Mr Biswas expects growth to average between 7% and 8% over the next few years, which is in line with government expectations. |
Along with the longer-term reasons for the slowdown, there are some other factors affecting China in the short term as well. | Along with the longer-term reasons for the slowdown, there are some other factors affecting China in the short term as well. |
Slower growth in the US and Europe have seen demand soften for Chinese products. At the same time, China has struggled to stoke its domestic demand. | Slower growth in the US and Europe have seen demand soften for Chinese products. At the same time, China has struggled to stoke its domestic demand. |
The government also took measures to cool the property market amid fears that a bubble was developing, something that also impacted the speed at which the economy expanded. | The government also took measures to cool the property market amid fears that a bubble was developing, something that also impacted the speed at which the economy expanded. |
Recovery signs | Recovery signs |
These factors brought down the pace of growth late last year to uncomfortable levels, with some economists predicting a "hard landing", or a sharp slowdown. | These factors brought down the pace of growth late last year to uncomfortable levels, with some economists predicting a "hard landing", or a sharp slowdown. |
However, their pessimistic predictions of a slump to growth of 6% seem to have been too extreme. | However, their pessimistic predictions of a slump to growth of 6% seem to have been too extreme. |
Instead the government implemented infrastructure spending programmes to spur growth and also provided incentives to encourage consumer spending and corporate borrowing. | Instead the government implemented infrastructure spending programmes to spur growth and also provided incentives to encourage consumer spending and corporate borrowing. |
"The government's stimulus measures implemented last year have managed to stabilise growth and lay the foundations for solid expansion this year," said Dariusz Kowalczyk of Credit Agricole CIB. | "The government's stimulus measures implemented last year have managed to stabilise growth and lay the foundations for solid expansion this year," said Dariusz Kowalczyk of Credit Agricole CIB. |
The figures released on Friday were "the best we could have wished for", he added. | The figures released on Friday were "the best we could have wished for", he added. |
Market bounce | |
Underlining this optimism were other figures also released on Friday which showed an improvement in house prices and retail sales. | |
Asian stock markets ticked higher on the news, while the Australian dollar gained. Australia is a key exporter of China, selling minerals that are used to help power its economic expansion. | |
Hong Kong's Hang Seng stock index was trading 0.7% higher, South Korea's Kospi added 0.5% and Australia's main stock index gained 0.3%. | |
Japan's Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer, adding 2.1% and getting an extra lift as a drop in the value of the yen helped exporters. |