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Pakistan bombings: militancy is a many-headed beast here Pakistan bombings: militancy is a many-headed beast here
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Bomb attacks are the background music to life in Pakistan. A blast somewhere in the country is reported nearly every day, and it is easy to become inured to it. After several months living there, I found myself thinking, as many others do: "Only three people died, it wasn't a bad one."Bomb attacks are the background music to life in Pakistan. A blast somewhere in the country is reported nearly every day, and it is easy to become inured to it. After several months living there, I found myself thinking, as many others do: "Only three people died, it wasn't a bad one."
It takes a day like Thursday, which saw a huge loss of life in a string of bomb attacks, to hammer the reality home. The heaviest death toll was in twin attacks on a snooker hall in a predominantly Shia area of Quetta, Baluchistan. Nearly 100 people died. Earlier in the day, a blast at a security checkpoint in the same city had killed 12. Further north, 22 people died in an explosion at a religious gathering in Swat.It takes a day like Thursday, which saw a huge loss of life in a string of bomb attacks, to hammer the reality home. The heaviest death toll was in twin attacks on a snooker hall in a predominantly Shia area of Quetta, Baluchistan. Nearly 100 people died. Earlier in the day, a blast at a security checkpoint in the same city had killed 12. Further north, 22 people died in an explosion at a religious gathering in Swat.
Militancy in Pakistan is a many-headed beast. Indeed, one of the problems in tackling the militant threat is the fact that no single threat exists. While much attention focuses on the Taliban insurgency in the north, this is not a clear cut situation where one group is attacking another, or trying to oust the government. This is evidenced by yesterday's attacks. The snooker hall bombs were the work of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a militant group with close ties to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and a long history of carrying out sectarian strikes. But the morning bomb in Quetta was detonated by the United Baluch Army, a little-known group that is part of the long-running and violent separatist movement in Baluchistan. It has been assumed that the attack in Swat was the work of the TTP, which briefly controlled the region before being ousted by the military in 2009.Militancy in Pakistan is a many-headed beast. Indeed, one of the problems in tackling the militant threat is the fact that no single threat exists. While much attention focuses on the Taliban insurgency in the north, this is not a clear cut situation where one group is attacking another, or trying to oust the government. This is evidenced by yesterday's attacks. The snooker hall bombs were the work of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a militant group with close ties to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and a long history of carrying out sectarian strikes. But the morning bomb in Quetta was detonated by the United Baluch Army, a little-known group that is part of the long-running and violent separatist movement in Baluchistan. It has been assumed that the attack in Swat was the work of the TTP, which briefly controlled the region before being ousted by the military in 2009.
There is a huge number of militant organisations in Pakistan, and while their aims sometimes converge – for instance, long-standing Sunni militant organisations co-operate with the global jihad movement and the TTP – they are frequently working for different aims. The TTP wishes to control the country while other militant groups may be more concerned with fighting in Kashmir or wiping out Shias, or in the case of Baloch separatists, working for an independent Balochistan.There is a huge number of militant organisations in Pakistan, and while their aims sometimes converge – for instance, long-standing Sunni militant organisations co-operate with the global jihad movement and the TTP – they are frequently working for different aims. The TTP wishes to control the country while other militant groups may be more concerned with fighting in Kashmir or wiping out Shias, or in the case of Baloch separatists, working for an independent Balochistan.
This incredibly complicated situation is compounded and worsened by state inconsistency. On the one hand, politicians condemn attacks and make noises about tackling the extremist threat. On the other, successive governments have encouraged these groups to fight proxy wars and serve state interests in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Groups such as Laskhar-e-Jhangvi are nominally banned, but in practice continue their activities with impunity. While it is convenient for the state to emphasise the role of the Taliban, a relatively recent entrant to the game, the TTP has only been able to secure such a foothold in Pakistan because these Sunni militant networks have been allowed to operate and grow over many decades.This incredibly complicated situation is compounded and worsened by state inconsistency. On the one hand, politicians condemn attacks and make noises about tackling the extremist threat. On the other, successive governments have encouraged these groups to fight proxy wars and serve state interests in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Groups such as Laskhar-e-Jhangvi are nominally banned, but in practice continue their activities with impunity. While it is convenient for the state to emphasise the role of the Taliban, a relatively recent entrant to the game, the TTP has only been able to secure such a foothold in Pakistan because these Sunni militant networks have been allowed to operate and grow over many decades.
Double-faced policy created this mess, but the way out of it is hindered by the weakness of state institutions. Campaigners point to the dysfunctional and slow criminal justice system as the biggest barrier to tackling the militant threat. Meanwhile, the army refuses to acknowledge that it has a serious infiltration problem of extremist sympathisers, particularly at the lower levels. This further complicates the notion of taking military action, which is already a somewhat meaningless suggestion given the multiplicity of the threat: would it be another incursion against the militants in the north, or should troops be deployed to secure law and order in Baluchistan and Karachi? How do you fight a war against an enemy hidden in corners of every city? A serious drive to counter extremism would include short-term measures to stem the violence, but also long-term policies such as education, job development, and community cohesion.Double-faced policy created this mess, but the way out of it is hindered by the weakness of state institutions. Campaigners point to the dysfunctional and slow criminal justice system as the biggest barrier to tackling the militant threat. Meanwhile, the army refuses to acknowledge that it has a serious infiltration problem of extremist sympathisers, particularly at the lower levels. This further complicates the notion of taking military action, which is already a somewhat meaningless suggestion given the multiplicity of the threat: would it be another incursion against the militants in the north, or should troops be deployed to secure law and order in Baluchistan and Karachi? How do you fight a war against an enemy hidden in corners of every city? A serious drive to counter extremism would include short-term measures to stem the violence, but also long-term policies such as education, job development, and community cohesion.
Thursday's attacks have come at a particularly testing time, as the government gears up to announce elections. If they go ahead, it will be the first time in Pakistan's history that a civilian government has lasted a full term and handed over to another. Yet with the level of violence as it is – more than 2,000 people died in terrorist attacks last year, and more than 4,000 were injured – many have cast doubt on whether elections will happen at all. And that is the crux of the matter. These extremist attacks do just not threaten the lives of individual people, but the state's ability to function as a state, and indeed, its very existence.Thursday's attacks have come at a particularly testing time, as the government gears up to announce elections. If they go ahead, it will be the first time in Pakistan's history that a civilian government has lasted a full term and handed over to another. Yet with the level of violence as it is – more than 2,000 people died in terrorist attacks last year, and more than 4,000 were injured – many have cast doubt on whether elections will happen at all. And that is the crux of the matter. These extremist attacks do just not threaten the lives of individual people, but the state's ability to function as a state, and indeed, its very existence.
• This article was amended on 11 January to give it the correct byline, as it was originally attributed to a different writer