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| Afghanistan produces a roadmap for peace, but does it go anywhere? | Afghanistan produces a roadmap for peace, but does it go anywhere? |
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| For a conflict in its twelfth year with no let up in the violence, a roadmap to peace sounds too good to be true. But that is what Afghanistan's High Peace Council has come up with. A four-page document which lays out some very clear directions, along with deadlines for a series of ambitious milestones. The question is whether it represents a journey in the real world, and trip into fantasy. | For a conflict in its twelfth year with no let up in the violence, a roadmap to peace sounds too good to be true. But that is what Afghanistan's High Peace Council has come up with. A four-page document which lays out some very clear directions, along with deadlines for a series of ambitious milestones. The question is whether it represents a journey in the real world, and trip into fantasy. |
| Much of it does indeed read like wishful thinking. The Afghan Peace Process Roadmap to 2015, first revealed by the McClatchy news agency, envisages direct talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban early next year, with Saudi Arabia as the preferred venue, and a ceasefire not long after, along with arrangements for insurgents to be reintegrated and their leaders to be given a slice of power. | Much of it does indeed read like wishful thinking. The Afghan Peace Process Roadmap to 2015, first revealed by the McClatchy news agency, envisages direct talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban early next year, with Saudi Arabia as the preferred venue, and a ceasefire not long after, along with arrangements for insurgents to be reintegrated and their leaders to be given a slice of power. |
| The wags are already saying the whole thing should be shelved under 'romantic fiction' but it does include at least one essential element of realism. It acknowledges the centrality of striking a deal with Pakistan, something that Kabul has not always been ready to concede. | The wags are already saying the whole thing should be shelved under 'romantic fiction' but it does include at least one essential element of realism. It acknowledges the centrality of striking a deal with Pakistan, something that Kabul has not always been ready to concede. |
| Pakistan has likewise changed its narrative in its dealings with the Afghans and the West. The army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani reportedly insists that Pakistan has realised an unstable Afghanistan threatens Pakistan rather than giving it 'strategic depth' against India. According to Masoom Stanekzai the head of the HPC secretariat, the Pakistani general does not even mention India any more in his discussions about Afghanistan. That used to be almost all Pakistani officials would talk about. | Pakistan has likewise changed its narrative in its dealings with the Afghans and the West. The army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani reportedly insists that Pakistan has realised an unstable Afghanistan threatens Pakistan rather than giving it 'strategic depth' against India. According to Masoom Stanekzai the head of the HPC secretariat, the Pakistani general does not even mention India any more in his discussions about Afghanistan. That used to be almost all Pakistani officials would talk about. |
| So with both capitals making all the right noises, what could possibly go wrong? A lot, it goes without saying. Pakistan does not seem so far to have made any extra effort to rein in insurgent operations launched from its territory. It has released 18 Taliban prisoners as the Afghan government had been demanding. But as the roadmap document states, Kabul wanted the releases - of prisoners who were mostly in Pakistani jail for expressing interest in talks in the first place - to be "to Afghanistan or to any third country in support of confidence building measures". Instead, the prisoners were simply allowed to scarper, and apart from rumours that they had either been re-arrested or gone back to the battle, have not been heard of since. | So with both capitals making all the right noises, what could possibly go wrong? A lot, it goes without saying. Pakistan does not seem so far to have made any extra effort to rein in insurgent operations launched from its territory. It has released 18 Taliban prisoners as the Afghan government had been demanding. But as the roadmap document states, Kabul wanted the releases - of prisoners who were mostly in Pakistani jail for expressing interest in talks in the first place - to be "to Afghanistan or to any third country in support of confidence building measures". Instead, the prisoners were simply allowed to scarper, and apart from rumours that they had either been re-arrested or gone back to the battle, have not been heard of since. |
| This is what Michael Semple, a former UN and EU envoy to Afghanistan and a fellow at Harvard's Carr Centre for Human Rights, had to say about it: | This is what Michael Semple, a former UN and EU envoy to Afghanistan and a fellow at Harvard's Carr Centre for Human Rights, had to say about it: |
| These prisoner releases have no clear link to a process. It's not clear the Afghan envoys even know who was being released. Putting militant commanders back on the street can only help peace if they have renounced violence and are committed to persuading others to do the same. There is no evidence of any such assurances in the current initiative. | These prisoner releases have no clear link to a process. It's not clear the Afghan envoys even know who was being released. Putting militant commanders back on the street can only help peace if they have renounced violence and are committed to persuading others to do the same. There is no evidence of any such assurances in the current initiative. |
| Meanwhile, the Afghan government's enthusiasm for negotiations would be more encouraging if the Taliban showed more interested in talking to Kabul. The various formulations of the Taliban 'moderate' position have many different nuances but they all have in common a total refusal to talk to Hamid Karzai. It is the reddest of their red lines - a profound animosity that has its roots in Kandahar tribal politics and is given its edge by the insurgents' perception he is a puppet and a traitor. | Meanwhile, the Afghan government's enthusiasm for negotiations would be more encouraging if the Taliban showed more interested in talking to Kabul. The various formulations of the Taliban 'moderate' position have many different nuances but they all have in common a total refusal to talk to Hamid Karzai. It is the reddest of their red lines - a profound animosity that has its roots in Kandahar tribal politics and is given its edge by the insurgents' perception he is a puppet and a traitor. |
| The Taliban have more enthusiasm for the negotiations with US officials in Qatar, if only because the leadership sees them as a direct route to securing prisoner releases from Guantanamo Bay. That process has stalled because of disagreements over the circumstances of the Guantanamo releases, but could restart in the New Year. | The Taliban have more enthusiasm for the negotiations with US officials in Qatar, if only because the leadership sees them as a direct route to securing prisoner releases from Guantanamo Bay. That process has stalled because of disagreements over the circumstances of the Guantanamo releases, but could restart in the New Year. |
| Even in an optimistic scenario, in which the Afghan roadmap is put into action, there will be substantial costs for the Afghan people. The plan grants Pakistan a lot of control over the Taliban, and as Rachel Reid of the Open Society Foundations, points out in a Foreign Policy blog the document is not very reassuring on human rights. It talks about handing out unelected positions to the Taliban, with no limitations for those commanders suspected of war crimes. And it has little to say about women's rights. | Even in an optimistic scenario, in which the Afghan roadmap is put into action, there will be substantial costs for the Afghan people. The plan grants Pakistan a lot of control over the Taliban, and as Rachel Reid of the Open Society Foundations, points out in a Foreign Policy blog the document is not very reassuring on human rights. It talks about handing out unelected positions to the Taliban, with no limitations for those commanders suspected of war crimes. And it has little to say about women's rights. |
| Reid argues that it is the duty of the international community to ensure that peace in Afghanistan is not at the expense of justice. The risk is that, come 2014, the desperation to avoid all-out civil war is so strong that human rights appear an easy sacrifice. | Reid argues that it is the duty of the international community to ensure that peace in Afghanistan is not at the expense of justice. The risk is that, come 2014, the desperation to avoid all-out civil war is so strong that human rights appear an easy sacrifice. |
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