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| 'Huge rise' in Iraqi death tolls | |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| An estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion, according to a survey by a US university. | An estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion, according to a survey by a US university. |
| The research compares mortality rates before and after the invasion from 47 randomly chosen areas in Iraq. | The research compares mortality rates before and after the invasion from 47 randomly chosen areas in Iraq. |
| The figure is considerably higher than estimates by official sources or the number of deaths reported in the media. | The figure is considerably higher than estimates by official sources or the number of deaths reported in the media. |
| US President George W Bush has dismissed the report, saying he does not consider it "credible". | |
| "I stand by the figure that a lot of innocent people have lost their life," he said. | |
| "Six-hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at is just... it's not credible." | |
| Other critics of the report have said the findings are inaccurate because they are based on a statistical prediction rather than body counts. | |
| Sharp rise | Sharp rise |
| Dr Gilbert Burnham of the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Heath, based in Baltimore, defended the method used for the report, given the dangers of conducting thorough research in strife-torn Iraq. | |
| The estimated death toll is equal to about 2.5% of Iraq's population, and averages out at more than 500 additional deaths a day since the start of the invasion. | |
| Researchers spoke to nearly 1,850 families, comprising more than 12,800 people in dozens of 40-household clusters around the country. | Researchers spoke to nearly 1,850 families, comprising more than 12,800 people in dozens of 40-household clusters around the country. |
| Anti-US insurgents launch daily attacks with civilian casualties | |
| Of the 629 deaths they recorded among these families, 13% took place in the 14 months before the invasion and 87% in the 40 months afterwards. | Of the 629 deaths they recorded among these families, 13% took place in the 14 months before the invasion and 87% in the 40 months afterwards. |
| Such a trend repeated nationwide would indicate a rise in annual death rates from 5.5 per 1,000 to 13.3 per 1,000. | Such a trend repeated nationwide would indicate a rise in annual death rates from 5.5 per 1,000 to 13.3 per 1,000. |
| The researchers say that in nearly 80% of the individual cases, family members produced death certificates to support their answers. | The researchers say that in nearly 80% of the individual cases, family members produced death certificates to support their answers. |
| Reliable data is very hard to obtain in Iraq, where anti-US insurgents and sectarian death squads pose a grave danger to civilian researchers. | Reliable data is very hard to obtain in Iraq, where anti-US insurgents and sectarian death squads pose a grave danger to civilian researchers. |
| The survey updates earlier research using the same "cluster" technique which indicated that 100,000 Iraqis had died between the invasion and April 2004 - a figure that was also dismissed by many supporters of the US-led coalition. | The survey updates earlier research using the same "cluster" technique which indicated that 100,000 Iraqis had died between the invasion and April 2004 - a figure that was also dismissed by many supporters of the US-led coalition. |
| 'Survivor bias' | 'Survivor bias' |
| While critics point to the discrepancy between this and other independent surveys (such as Iraq Body Count's figure of 44-49,000 civilian deaths, based on media reports), | |
| The Bloomberg School team says its method may actually underestimate the true figure. | |
| "Families, especially in households with combatants killed, could have hidden deaths. Under-reporting of infant deaths is a widespread concern in surveys of this type," the authors say. | "Families, especially in households with combatants killed, could have hidden deaths. Under-reporting of infant deaths is a widespread concern in surveys of this type," the authors say. |
| "Entire households could have been killed, leading to survivor bias." | "Entire households could have been killed, leading to survivor bias." |
| The survey suggests that most of the extra deaths - 601,000 - would have been the result of violence, mostly gunfire, and suggests that 31% could be attributable to action by US-led coalition forces. | The survey suggests that most of the extra deaths - 601,000 - would have been the result of violence, mostly gunfire, and suggests that 31% could be attributable to action by US-led coalition forces. |
| The survey is to be published in a UK medical journal, the Lancet, on Thursday. | The survey is to be published in a UK medical journal, the Lancet, on Thursday. |
| In an accompanying comment, the Lancet's Richard Horton acknowledges that the 2004 survey provoked controversy, but emphasises that the 2006 follow-up has been recommended by "four expert peers... with relatively minor revisions". | In an accompanying comment, the Lancet's Richard Horton acknowledges that the 2004 survey provoked controversy, but emphasises that the 2006 follow-up has been recommended by "four expert peers... with relatively minor revisions". |