Wales Stares Into Rugby Abyss

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/24/sports/rugby/24iht-rugby24.html

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WELLINGTON — Just 12 months ago, Wales was being touted as a genuine rival to the Southern Hemisphere powerhouses New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.

A fourth-place finish at the Rugby World Cup, where its young players lit up the tournament with their attacking panache and outstanding defense under their captain, Sam Warburton, had earned it many fans and plaudits in New Zealand.

That form continued in the Six Nations, as Wales swept England, Ireland, Scotland, France and Italy to earn its third grand slam in eight seasons and its second under coach Warren Gatland.

There was a real belief that Wales was on the cusp of another golden era that had not been seen in the rugby-mad country since the glory days of the 1970s.

But Wales seems to have instilled false hopes. Nine months after its Six Nations success, it is mired in a five-test losing streak, its worst run since 2010. It lost all three tests to an under-strength Australia team in June, and it has lost to Argentina and Samoa in the past two weeks.

The latter two results have left Wales in danger of dropping to the third tier of seedings in the 2015 Rugby World Cup draw, which will take place early next month.

Its next two matches — against the world champion, New Zealand, and Australia — are crucial, because the team’s world ranking Dec. 3 will determine which band it is allocated to for seedings.

Nations ranked one to four are in Band 1 and will be the top seeds in each of the four World Cup pools. They avoid each other in the pool phase, which for the No.4 team — currently France — is a huge benefit given the likelihood that New Zealand, South Africa and Australia will be ranked in the top three when the draw takes place.

Every pool will also be allocated one team from Band 2 (teams ranked five to eight) and one from Band 3 (teams ranked nine to 12).

If Wales drops from its current position of eighth, it could find itself in a World Cup pool with two higher-ranked opponents — and only two teams progress from the pool to the knockout stage.

That scenario would have been unthinkable this time last year. But the enterprising attack and staunch defense that highlighted the Welsh World Cup campaign has been missing in recent weeks. Several key players have not been playing up to their usual standards or are out injured.

The tries have dried up to the point where Wales managed just one opportunistic five-pointer — an intercept try from Ashley Beck — in the loss to Samoa, which is ranked just behind Wales, at No.9 in the world.

And the defense has started to leak, too. In the Six Nations, Wales conceded just 58 points in five games. In the tests against Argentina and Samoa it has conceded five tries alone, three of those against Samoa.

Players who excelled at the World Cup and in the Six Nations have also struggled to replicate that play. Warburton, who looked like a rising star in New Zealand last autumn, has not been able to reproduce that form since returning from the shoulder injury he suffered in the Six Nations. He was benched for the match against Samoa but was reinstated as captain and openside flanker this weekend in one of five changes made after the loss to Samoa.

Fly half Rhys Priestland showed huge promise last year, but his play and fitness have dipped since then, and he returns to the Wales starting lineup against New Zealand only because of an injury to Dan Biggar.

Lock Luke Charteris and hooker Matthew Rees have also been recalled. The return of the experienced center Jonathan Davies, who will renew his Grand Slam-winning midfield partnership with Jamie Roberts, is a huge boost of confidence for a team that is currently low on it.

But perhaps the biggest lift of all for the Welsh, who have not beaten New Zealand in 24 tests stretching back to 1953, is having Gatland back at the helm.

The New Zealand-born coach has missed Wales’s last two matches because of his commitments as the British and Irish Lions coach. Rob Howley has had the reins, as he did for the series loss in Australia, when Gatland missed the tour after smashing both his heels in an accident at his home. Howley will also be in charge for the Six Nations next year, as the New Zealander will be heavily involved in planning and selection duties for the Lions’ tour of Australia, which starts in June.

Allowing Gatland to miss the opening two November matches drew criticism from the former Wales and Lions player Gareth Thomas. Thomas, who played 100 games for Wales, believed that precedence should have been give to ensuring that the Welsh finished high in the world rankings to secure a good World Cup draw.

Gatland insisted, however, that his presence in the past couple of weeks would have made no difference to the Welsh and that he should not now be seen as a savior coming in to rescue the team.

He believed the biggest challenge facing his side was a mental.

“It’s not a physical issue, it’s just getting the head right about facing a daunting challenge and getting excited about it,” Gatland said at a news conference.

“I don’t think it is a World Cup hangover or a Six Nations hangover,” he said. “We have just gone through a bit of a dip.

“The players are well aware that some of their form has not been as strong as it possibly could be,” he continued. “There is a little bit of a confidence issue with one or two.

“Some of them are dealing for the first time with some criticism that has come from the outside. It has been quite personal for some of them, but they’ve got to learn to cope with that.”