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Gaza: storm before the quiet Gaza: storm before the quiet
(about 1 hour later)
It is in keeping with a conflict like the one we have witnessed for the past week in Gaza that the closer a ceasefire gets, the more intense the fighting becomes. As we write, it is impossible to say whether we are on the verge of quiet, truce, ceasefire, or however the word hudna is translated, or the start of a ground incursion by Israeli forces. Thousands of Gazans took shelter in UN-run schools as leaflets were dropped telling them to evacuate border areas. Shells then began landing in northern Gaza. Was this the last hurrah of the operation launched with the aim of degrading Hamas's military reach, or the start of an even bloodier and more prolonged phase?It is in keeping with a conflict like the one we have witnessed for the past week in Gaza that the closer a ceasefire gets, the more intense the fighting becomes. As we write, it is impossible to say whether we are on the verge of quiet, truce, ceasefire, or however the word hudna is translated, or the start of a ground incursion by Israeli forces. Thousands of Gazans took shelter in UN-run schools as leaflets were dropped telling them to evacuate border areas. Shells then began landing in northern Gaza. Was this the last hurrah of the operation launched with the aim of degrading Hamas's military reach, or the start of an even bloodier and more prolonged phase?
Hamas and the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, claimed earlier in the day that they had a deal. If so, this would not be the first time an armistice had been shot out of their hands. Killing is part of the talking. If you lose the argument, you die. No one but Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, knew whether he thought he had achieved enough from the operation to stop it. Its even more unclear what he would gain by continuing it. Before an overwhelmingly supportive Israeli public, the last week of assaults leaves him arguments he can make. He can say that while Gilad Shalit is back with his family, the man who kidnapped him, Hamas's military chief Ahmed al-Jaabari, is dead; he can say that the stock of missiles in Gaza is depleted and that the Iron Dome missile defence system proved itself. He can say the operation gave the lie to those who claimed Israel cannot act militarily now that the regional environment has been changed by the Arab spring. Further, he may well try to appropriate Egypt's Mr Morsi as Israel's new conflict manager.Hamas and the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, claimed earlier in the day that they had a deal. If so, this would not be the first time an armistice had been shot out of their hands. Killing is part of the talking. If you lose the argument, you die. No one but Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, knew whether he thought he had achieved enough from the operation to stop it. Its even more unclear what he would gain by continuing it. Before an overwhelmingly supportive Israeli public, the last week of assaults leaves him arguments he can make. He can say that while Gilad Shalit is back with his family, the man who kidnapped him, Hamas's military chief Ahmed al-Jaabari, is dead; he can say that the stock of missiles in Gaza is depleted and that the Iron Dome missile defence system proved itself. He can say the operation gave the lie to those who claimed Israel cannot act militarily now that the regional environment has been changed by the Arab spring. Further, he may well try to appropriate Egypt's Mr Morsi as Israel's new conflict manager.
Hamas has a different narrative. Whether a ceasefire takes effect or not, they will say their rockets established their reach over the majority of the population from Jerusalem to north of Tel Aviv. And far from being wiped out in the initial Israeli bombardment, they kept firing to the very end. At home, Hamas will have reaffirmed its role as the main resistance to the occupation – a role which it was in danger of surrendering to competitive militant groups in the Gaza Strip. Further, if it materialises on Wednesday in Cairo, the ceasefire deal will produce an immediate concrete gain for Hamas – the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt to commercial goods as well as civilians. This means that the siege of Gaza, conceived by Israel with the backing of the international community, would also be over. More significant, Hamas claims, would be the political gains achieved during the past traumatic week – the pictures of the Egyptian prime minister and Turkish foreign minister clutching dead Gazan children, the stream of visits and support from the entire Arab League. What did the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, sitting all on his own in Ramallah get? Tony Blair. Hamas has a different narrative. Whether a ceasefire takes effect or not, they will say their rockets established their reach over the majority of the population from Jerusalem to north of Tel Aviv. And far from being wiped out in the initial Israeli bombardment, they kept firing to the very end. At home, Hamas will have reaffirmed its role as the main resistance to the occupation – a role which it was in danger of surrendering to competitive militant groups in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is looking for an immediate gain from a ceasefire, if one were to emerge on Wednesday – the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt to commercial goods as well as civilians. This would mean that the siege of Gaza would also end, but Israeli objections to the linkage between the truce and the border crossing was one reason why agreement could not be reached .
More significant, Hamas claims, would be the political gains achieved during the past traumatic week – the pictures of the Egyptian prime minister and Turkish foreign minister clutching dead Gazan children, the stream of visits and support from the entire Arab League. What did the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, sitting all on his own in Ramallah get? Tony Blair.
Who is right? If he is persuaded to cash in his chips now, Mr Netanyahu's gains are tactical and short term. He will only have achieved one of the three demands at Cairo – that Hamas be responsible for policing a total ceasefire among all militant groups in Gaza – but he will not have achieved his demand that this agreement run for a stated minimum period of time or that a buffer zone be created.Who is right? If he is persuaded to cash in his chips now, Mr Netanyahu's gains are tactical and short term. He will only have achieved one of the three demands at Cairo – that Hamas be responsible for policing a total ceasefire among all militant groups in Gaza – but he will not have achieved his demand that this agreement run for a stated minimum period of time or that a buffer zone be created.
Hamas's gains are strategic – even if the fighting does not end at midnight. It is overstating it to say that Hamas has in the course of one week gone from isolation to achieve unity in the Arab world, but it has already achieved a huge diplomatic boost. If William Hague on Tuesday recognised the Syrian opposition as the legitimate government of Syria, Hamas moved closer in the eyes of the Arab world to occupy a similar position as the Palestinian government in waiting. It will not be the first time that Israeli military action helped Hamas, which does not recognise the state of Israel, at the expense of Fatah, which does. But the logic of this conflict is that the Palestinian leadership will be re-formed, and hardened.Hamas's gains are strategic – even if the fighting does not end at midnight. It is overstating it to say that Hamas has in the course of one week gone from isolation to achieve unity in the Arab world, but it has already achieved a huge diplomatic boost. If William Hague on Tuesday recognised the Syrian opposition as the legitimate government of Syria, Hamas moved closer in the eyes of the Arab world to occupy a similar position as the Palestinian government in waiting. It will not be the first time that Israeli military action helped Hamas, which does not recognise the state of Israel, at the expense of Fatah, which does. But the logic of this conflict is that the Palestinian leadership will be re-formed, and hardened.