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| Honest broker: Egypt's role on path to peace in Gaza | Honest broker: Egypt's role on path to peace in Gaza |
| (5 months later) | |
| Egypt is the indispensable player in any attempt to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinans in the Gaza Strip. But it has good reasons of its own for wanting to help defuse an already bloody crisis which risks escalating into a wider and even more dangerous conflict. | Egypt is the indispensable player in any attempt to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinans in the Gaza Strip. But it has good reasons of its own for wanting to help defuse an already bloody crisis which risks escalating into a wider and even more dangerous conflict. |
| In that respect Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president, is following a similar path to his overthrown predecessor Hosni Mubarak, though Morsi is far more sympathetic to Hamas, the Islamist movement which controls the Palestinian border enclave. Morsi's solidarity is not in question. But he has to consider Egypt's overall strategic and economic interests and is unlikely to want to jeopardise his country's 32-year-old peace treaty with Israel — and the US aid that goes with it. | In that respect Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president, is following a similar path to his overthrown predecessor Hosni Mubarak, though Morsi is far more sympathetic to Hamas, the Islamist movement which controls the Palestinian border enclave. Morsi's solidarity is not in question. But he has to consider Egypt's overall strategic and economic interests and is unlikely to want to jeopardise his country's 32-year-old peace treaty with Israel — and the US aid that goes with it. |
| The extraordinary changes of the Arab spring have forced governments in the region to listen to their own people more than they did before. But the old constraints have not disappeared. | The extraordinary changes of the Arab spring have forced governments in the region to listen to their own people more than they did before. But the old constraints have not disappeared. |
| Talks in Cairo between Egyptian General Intelligence and Israeli security officials are focusing on finding a mechanism to end the current fighting, while the Egyptians meet separately with Hamas. The trick, as with any negotiation, will be reaching an agreement that allows both parties to claim to their respective publics that they have achieved something tangible from the blood-letting. | Talks in Cairo between Egyptian General Intelligence and Israeli security officials are focusing on finding a mechanism to end the current fighting, while the Egyptians meet separately with Hamas. The trick, as with any negotiation, will be reaching an agreement that allows both parties to claim to their respective publics that they have achieved something tangible from the blood-letting. |
| Hamas wants a guarantee from Israel that it would end "targeted assassinations" of the kind that killed Ahmed al-Jaabari last Wednesday. It would also need pledges about opening crossing points into Egypt and Israel – effectively lifting the five year blockade. Israel is insisting at a minimum on stopping the cross-border rocket fire which has united public opinion behind Operation Defensive Pillar. Israeli casualties have been low because the weapons are inaccurate and many of them were quickly destroyed. | Hamas wants a guarantee from Israel that it would end "targeted assassinations" of the kind that killed Ahmed al-Jaabari last Wednesday. It would also need pledges about opening crossing points into Egypt and Israel – effectively lifting the five year blockade. Israel is insisting at a minimum on stopping the cross-border rocket fire which has united public opinion behind Operation Defensive Pillar. Israeli casualties have been low because the weapons are inaccurate and many of them were quickly destroyed. |
| Any deal would include other understandings that are unlikely to be formulated explicitly or made public. Israel certainly wants the Egyptians to shut down the network of tunnels that are Gaza's lifeline to the outside world. Food and consumer goods are one thing, but the longer-range missiles that allow Hamas or more militant groups to strike targets in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel's urban heartland are another. | Any deal would include other understandings that are unlikely to be formulated explicitly or made public. Israel certainly wants the Egyptians to shut down the network of tunnels that are Gaza's lifeline to the outside world. Food and consumer goods are one thing, but the longer-range missiles that allow Hamas or more militant groups to strike targets in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel's urban heartland are another. |
| None of these demands for the endgame are particularly surprising: in the modern manner Hamas on Mondaylisted its demands on Facebook while an Israeli minister enumerated its own on Twitter. | None of these demands for the endgame are particularly surprising: in the modern manner Hamas on Mondaylisted its demands on Facebook while an Israeli minister enumerated its own on Twitter. |
| Hanging over the whole discussion is the much-advertised threat that Israel, having ordered a partial mobilisation of the reserves, will mount another large Cast Lead-type ground offensive inside Gaza, something which the US and other western countries have warned against. Israeli public opinion has its doubts as well — no small consideration for Binyamin Netanyahu with parliamentary elections due in January. | Hanging over the whole discussion is the much-advertised threat that Israel, having ordered a partial mobilisation of the reserves, will mount another large Cast Lead-type ground offensive inside Gaza, something which the US and other western countries have warned against. Israeli public opinion has its doubts as well — no small consideration for Binyamin Netanyahu with parliamentary elections due in January. |
| It is safe to assume that neither Egypt nor Israel want to see the collapse of Hamas rule in Gaza. And Mohammed Abbas's PLO in the West Bank, discredited by the perception of many Palestinians that it has become complicit in Israel's policies, is in no position to take over. | It is safe to assume that neither Egypt nor Israel want to see the collapse of Hamas rule in Gaza. And Mohammed Abbas's PLO in the West Bank, discredited by the perception of many Palestinians that it has become complicit in Israel's policies, is in no position to take over. |
| Yet even if a ceasefire is achieved — perhaps needing some kind of UN or other monitoring mechanism — it will take a far broader and more sustained effort, with wide international support, to revive the moribund peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. It is the absence of any significant peace efforts for the last four years that have led to this latest brutal episode in the long and violent history of the conflict. Tony Blair's attempts in Ramallah, capital of the West Bank, to prevent Abbas seeking observer status at the UN are a reminder of how nit-pickingly marginal the international community has become. | Yet even if a ceasefire is achieved — perhaps needing some kind of UN or other monitoring mechanism — it will take a far broader and more sustained effort, with wide international support, to revive the moribund peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. It is the absence of any significant peace efforts for the last four years that have led to this latest brutal episode in the long and violent history of the conflict. Tony Blair's attempts in Ramallah, capital of the West Bank, to prevent Abbas seeking observer status at the UN are a reminder of how nit-pickingly marginal the international community has become. |
| If there is no political perspective then it can only be a matter of time before the next round of hostilities erupts. | If there is no political perspective then it can only be a matter of time before the next round of hostilities erupts. |
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